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Viewing cable 06ASMARA838, ERITREA'S SUDANESE VENTURE CONTINUES WITH DARFUR

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06ASMARA838 2006-10-12 13:21 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Asmara
VZCZCXYZ0002
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHAE #0838/01 2851321
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 121321Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY ASMARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8481
INFO RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 0216
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 5992
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO 0352
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 2874
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 0158
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1229
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 4652
RUEHNJ/AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA 0236
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1404
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0561
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
C O N F I D E N T I A L ASMARA 000838 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2016 
TAGS: PREL PINR PGOV ER SU
SUBJECT: ERITREA'S SUDANESE VENTURE CONTINUES WITH DARFUR 
 
REF: A. KHARTOUM 02454 B. KHARTOUM 02479 
 
Classified By: CDA Jennifer A. McIntyre, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary:  Since the visits of Sudanese VP Salva Kiir 
and a 
National Congress Party (NCP) delegation in late August, 
rumors 
have been circulating about an Eritrean-hosted DPA 
non-signatories 
conference.  With the Sudan People's Liberation Movement 
(SPLM) 
initiative to host a Darfur meeting in Yey seemingly fallen 
by the 
wayside, a GSE-led initiative seems to be moving forward, 
perhaps 
beginning as early as next week.  Darfur non-signatory 
representatives are beginning to gather in Asmara.  Yemane 
Ghebreab, the Eritrean mediator for the concluding 
GNU/Eastern 
Front talks, told the Ambassador on October 5 that the GSE is 
willing to play mediator in bringing all the DPA 
non-signatories 
together to find a lasting solution to the problems of 
Darfur. 
While Ghebreab claims the GSE would work from the DPA in 
negotiations, the results of a GSE-led mediation is 
impossible to 
predict.  Like the Eastern Front/GNU mediation, the 
Government of 
the State of Eritrea (GSE) is unlikely to invite the 
international 
community to participate or observe the talks, limiting the 
community's ability to influence the final outcome.  End 
Summary. 
 
ABDULWAHID EXPRESSES SUPPORT FOR ERITREA AND THE NRF 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
2. (C) In a recent interview given in Asharq Al Awsat (Ref A) 
as 
well as in an al-Jazeera television interview, Abdulwahid Al 
Nur 
explained that he supports Eritrea in the role of negotiator 
between the DPA non-signatories, commenting that "no country 
in 
the world is more competent than Eritrea to be a mediator 
between 
us (Darfurians) and the GOS."  Moreover, he claimed in both 
interviews that all of the Darfur factions were united and 
aligned 
with the NRF.  In recent meetings with the diplomatic 
community, 
including his recent meeting with EU Special Envoy for Sudan 
Pekka 
Haavisto, Abdulwahid attended with Justice and Equality 
Movement 
(JEM) representatives in tow -- an interesting development 
given 
Abdulwahid's rhetoric of just two months ago when he claimed 
that 
there were irreconcilable differences between him and JEM 
leader, 
Khalil Ibrahim.  While Abdulwahid appears to be cozying up to 
the 
NRF, Ahmed Abdel Shaffi continues to hold his ground as an 
SLM 
leader.  Shaffi has also intimated that he would be willing 
to 
participate in a GSE-hosted conference to unite the DPA non- 
signatories. 
 
HAIL, HAIL, THE GANG'S ALL HERE 
------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) DPA non-signatories continue to filter in.  Over the 
last 
week, Sharif Harir and Ahmed Diraige arrived in Asmara 
joining 
Abdulwahid and Shaffi who have been resident since June.  The 
Dutch Embassy informed Emboff that they issued Abdulwahid a 
Schengen visa in his fake Eritrean passport on October 11, 
after 
heavy pressure to do so by the French Ambassador.  They 
believe 
Abdulwahid intends to travel to Paris on the earliest flight 
but 
plans to return to Asmara in time for the start of any 
meetings. 
Khamis Abdalla Abakar is expected to arrive in the coming 
days, 
while Khalil Ibrahim's travel is reportedly being delayed by 
the 
French authorities in Paris over a passport renewal, but he 
is 
expected in Asmara soon as well.  All of the Darfurians have 
been 
invited to Asmara under the pretext that the GSE will be 
hosting a 
meeting aimed at uniting all of the DPA non-signatories under 
a 
common umbrella and position.  Sudanese sources say that all 
the 
non-signatories have been invited the signing of the Eastern 
Sudan 
Peace Agreement (ESPA) this Saturday, October 14. 
 
SPLM AND NCP COURTING GSE 
------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Reports from a number of Sudanese experts claim that 
both 
the SPLM visit and the NCP delegation which visited Asmara in 
late 
August came here with the goal of courting the GSE regarding 
their 
proposals for a solution to Darfur.  Kiir supposedly met with 
President Isaias and briefed him on the SPLM initiative to 
invite 
all the DPA non-signatories along with the NCP and the GSE to 
Yey 
to find a solution to the Darfur crisis.  While Isaias was 
supportive of the proposal, inside sources claim that Bashir 
quashed the SPLM initiative on Kiir's return to Khartoum. 
Only 
days later, the NCP sent their own delegation lead by Nafi 
ali 
Nafi to Asmara August 25-27, and told the GSE that they would 
deliver all of the Darfur leaders and allow the GSE to take 
the 
lead in a DPA non-signatory conference -- if and only if -- 
the 
SPLM was excluded from such a conference. 
 
5. (C) On October 10, Emboff was told by a Sudanese contact 
that 
on October 7-9, NCP officials Saleh Gosh and Mustafa Osman 
Ismael 
brought a message from President Bashir asking the GSE to 
take the 
lead in mediating between the Government of National Unity 
(GNU) 
and DPA non-signatories.  While the extent of the SPLM's role 
in a 
future mediation is still in question, the NCP has realized 
that 
their initial push for a quiet mediation has failed and the 
SPLM 
will have to play some role, albeit most likely a minor one. 
The 
same Sudanese source claims that this mediation could begin 
as 
early as next week.  He expects that the DPA non-signatories 
will 
hold a short informal meeting before the talks to reach 
agreement 
on their negotiating position. 
 
GSE'S TAKE ON DARFUR 
-------------------- 
 
6. (C) In a meeting with the Ambassador on October 5, Yemane 
Ghebreab, the GSE mediator on Eastern Sudan, confirmed that 
the 
GSE would take the lead in negotiating an agreement between 
the 
DPA non-signatories and the GNU if they were asked to do so 
by all 
parties.  He hinted that both the SPLM and NCP had approached 
the 
GSE with separate proposals.  Ghebreab reiterated previous 
statements that the GSE first needed to finish with the 
Eastern 
Sudan negotiations and then could turn its attention to 
Darfur, if 
needed.  He did not specify any timeframes for a Darfur 
meeting or 
conference.  Ghebreab did state that they would not attempt 
to 
create a new agreement from scratch, but instead build on the 
current DPA and amend it with items focused on issues of 
concern 
that were not addressed in the earlier agreement.  While 
Ghebreab 
said the GSE was aware of other conference proposals being 
discussed, he did not offer any support for these 
initiatives. 
Similarly, he did not comment on whether the international 
community would have a role in a future GSE-led mediation 
between 
the GNU and DPA non-signatories. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
7. (C) The Eritreans continue to solidify their role as a key 
player in Sudan.  Now that the Eastern Sudan issue appears 
almost 
wrapped up, the GSE's focus on Darfur is becoming more 
intense.  A 
GSE-led mediation is an almost certainty in the near future. 
We 
are hearing around town that neither the DPA non-signatories 
nor 
GNU itself are entertaining any alternative conference 
proposals 
at this time.  Post anticipates that the international 
community 
will not be invited to participate or observe a GSE-led 
conference.  While Ghebreab seemed sincere about the GSE's 
intention to use the DPA as the baseline from which to 
mediate, 
post and the other diplomatic missions in town remain wary 
about 
the potential outcomes of a process over which the 
international 
community will have no influence. 
MCINTYRE