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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASMARA 000830 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2016 
TAGS: PREL MOPS UNSC PINR KPKO ER SO
SUBJECT: UN SRSG GIVES VIEWS ON ERITREA AND SOMALIA 
 
Classified By: CDA Jennifer McIntyre for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: UN Special Representative for the 
Secretary General (SRSG) for Somalia Francois Lonseny 
 
SIPDIS 
Fall briefed Emboffs October 5 on his meeting with 
Government of the State of Eritrea (GSE) President Isaias 
Afwerki and provided his views on the fluid situation in 
Somalia.  Fall expressed concern that Eritrea and 
Ethiopia are embarking on a proxy war in Somalia and 
fears that events on the ground may be assuming their own 
momentum.  The Council of Islamic Courts (CIC) 
territorial gains within southern Somalia could create a 
fait accompli before the scheduled talks between CIC and 
Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Khartoum.  The 
momentum of the Courts could also pressure Ethiopia into 
a decision to deploy unilaterally to Somalia, in advance 
of an IGAD or UN decision.  The GSE's involvement in 
Somalia appears strategically calculated to strengthen 
its position as a regional player.  End Summary. 
 
FALL BRIEFS ON MEETING WITH PRESIDENT ISAIAS 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) On October 4, President Isaias met with SRSG Fall 
and Bruno Mpondo-Epo, Director of Political Affairs for 
the UN Political Office on Somalia (UNPOS).  President 
Isaias told SRSG Fall that Eritrea opposes the deployment 
of Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) 
troops to Somalia and expressed GSE support for 
continuing negotiations between the CIC and TFG.  Isaias 
stated his view of the CIC as a national, not a 
terrorist, movement.  He pointedly remarked that Islam 
does not equate to terrorism, and that the GSE supports 
the CIC actions to use religion, and not clan divisions, 
to unite Somalia.  President Isaias commented that the 
Transitional Federal Government(TFG) does not reflect the 
view of the people.  He emphasized that all countries in 
the region should respect Somalia's sovereignty and not 
interfere in their internal affairs.  Fall said President 
Isaias refuted allegations that Eritrea is engaged in a 
proxy war with Ethiopia. 
 
¶3. (C) With regards to the upcoming meetings between TFG 
and CIC in Khartoum, President Isaias told SRSG Fall that 
IGAD, AU, EC and UN representatives should attend the 
negotiations.  Without these four parties present, Isaias 
maintained the negotiations would fail. 
 
¶4. (C) In a sidebar conversation with Poloff, UNPOS 
Director Mpondo-Epo added more details of SRSG Fall's 
conversations with President Isaias.  In the meeting, 
President Isaias averred that Eritrea has a 
responsibility to the Islamic Courts and said that the 
GSE has provided them "notional" support.  President 
Isaias spoke at length about the emotional connection 
between Eritrea and Somalia and about his personal 
connection to Somalia, after having spent time there 
earlier in his life.  Isaias expressed his pleasure that 
peace has come at last to southern Somalia and noted with 
concern that the international community wants to take 
this away from the people. 
 
UNPOS DIRECTOR: ERITREA SEEKS GREATER REGIONAL INFLUENCE 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶5. (C) In assessing Eritrea's role in Somalia, Mpondo-Epo 
offered Poloff two explanations for GSE involvement. 
First, Eritrea seeks to be a powerful player in the 
region.  By building an alliance with the CIC, not only 
do they get to poke at their Ethiopian neighbors, they 
also stand to gain a regionally valuable relationship. 
As the Court's political control in Somalia expands and 
their relationship with Eritrea strengthens, the GSE 
calculates that the international community will need it 
to serve as an intermediary with the CIC.  With this 
strategy, Eritrea strives to become the linchpin to 
resolving the conflict in Somalia.  Second, the GSE is 
focused on keeping Somalia united and anti-Ethiopian -- 
and as such preventing Ethiopia access to Somalia's 
ports, which in turn, would increase the pressure on the 
Ethiopians to resolve their border dispute with Eritrea. 
 
ASMARA 00000830  002 OF 003 
 
 
Without sea access through Somalia, Mpondo-Epo posited, 
the Ethiopians will be forced to address the border 
demarcation in order to begin subsequent negotiations for 
access to the Eritrean port of Assab. 
 
FALL CONCERNED OVER SITUATION ON THE GROUND 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) SRSG Fall expressed his concerns to Emboffs about 
Somalia's immediate future.  He fears the CIC will not 
stop its advance, and with material support from Arab 
countries, the situation could deteriorate to civil war 
and greater conflict.  The CIC, he said, was fomenting 
discontent in cities outside of their current control as 
to build support for their movement as they approached 
these cities, including in Somaliland and in Puntland. 
He noted that if action were not taken to protect Baidoa, 
the Islamic Courts would eventually take it, if not 
directly, then by organizing groups within Baidoa. 
 
¶7. (C) Based on remarks made by Ethiopian President Meles 
Zenawi during their recent meeting, SRSG Fall worried 
that Ethiopia may feel it cannot afford to wait for a UN 
or IGAD decision to deploy peacekeepers if the CIC 
continues its momentum.  While Ethiopia supports an IGAD 
deployment, Meles may decide to take unilateral action if 
the situation continues to sour for the TFG.  Fall 
expressed concern that Somalia was, in fact, serving as a 
proxy war between Ethiopia and Eritrea and confrontation 
between them in Somalia could lead to increased tensions 
along the Eritrean and Ethiopian border.  He found 
credible the reports of Eritrean involvement in Somalia, 
including the presence of an unnamed Eritrean military 
advisor in Mogadishu.  He further affirmed Kenya's recent 
increase of security along its shared border with 
Somalia. 
 
¶8. (C) SRSG Fall commented on the fluid situation in 
Somalia and noted that the balance of power could shift 
more heavily to the CIC within the next few weeks.  The 
upcoming meeting in Khartoum and the next UNSC meeting in 
early November may be faced with a markedly different set 
of circumstances than at present.  He mentioned that some 
UNSC members (without naming them) had requested an early 
briefing on the situation in the region prior to the UNSC 
meeting.  Fall also noted the representatives from the 
three UN missions in the Horn -- UNMIS, UNMEE and UNPOS - 
- were scheduled to meet in Nairobi the weekend of 
October 7 to discuss the broader, interlinking regional 
issues. 
 
¶9. (C) SRSG Fall stated that the UN had "no problem" in 
principle with IGAD deployment of peacekeepers.  IGAD 
members remain split, however, with Kenya, Uganda and 
Ethiopia supporting deployment and Eritrea, Djibouti and 
Sudan in opposition.  Further complicating the issue, the 
CIC continues to firmly oppose IGAD deployment and even 
within the TFG ranks, there is no agreement.  Even with 
an agreement to deploy peacekeepers, significant issues 
would still have to be resolved: for example, identifying 
the countries that would provide the recommended eight 
battalions and determining who would pay for the 
operations.  SRSG Fall concluded by cautioning that 
before endorsing a deployment, "we need to be sure 
deployment will help." 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶10. (C) SRSG Fall's meeting with President Isaias offered 
no surprises, echoing Eritrea's previous public 
statements on Somalia.  While Eritre! is clearly involved 
in Somalia, the extent of the involvement still remains a 
matter of speculation.  What is clear is that Eritrea's 
cozying up to the CIC is a calculated move to position 
the GSE as a key player in the region, similar to the 
role they have carved out in their relationship to Sudan. 
Eritrea appears to be pursuing a fairly effective 
strategy aimed at both increasing their regional 
influence and maintaining pressure on Ethiopia. End 
Comment. 
 
ASMARA 00000830  003 OF 003 
 
 
MCINTYRE