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FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5359
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 6009
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 2049
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ SEP 0105
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 0985
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 1210
RUEKJCS/OASD WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 002404 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/28/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC IO KDEM
SUBJECT: BIELSA PESSIMISTIC ON ECUADORIAN ELECTIONS 
 
Classified By: PolOff Erik Martini for reasons 1.4 (B&D) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary: At Ambassador Jewell's breakfast meeting 
with major donors and supporters of the election observation 
effort, OAS Election Observation Mission to Ecuador Chief, 
Rafael Bielsa, outlined his concerns with upcoming 
presidential elections.  Candidates and the media seem to be 
planting the idea in the public that fraud is inevitable. 
While GOE preparation is proceeding well, there are some 
weaknesses that could fuel fraud speculation.  Bielsa has 
concluded that substantial post-electoral controversy is 
possible.  End Summary. 
 
Background 
---------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Ambassador Jewell convened a breakfast with 
international donors and players to discuss OAS election 
monitoring plans.  In attendance were: OAS Chief of Election 
Observation Mission Rafael Bielsa and selected OAS staff; 
Ambassadors to Ecuador of Spain and Switzerland; 
representatives from the Embassies of Canada, Germany, Chile, 
and the Netherlands; and resident representatives of the UN, 
World Bank, IMF,and Interamerican Development Bank.  In a two 
hour discussion, participants listened to Bielsa's 
observations and exchanged views. 
 
Bielsa Outlines His Worries 
--------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) Bielsa expressed genuine worry over upcoming 
Ecuadorian elections on October 15.  He did not believe that 
electoral fraud would be widespread or systematic, but could 
be just enough to give the losers in a close presidential 
election grounds for complaint.  He believes several 
candidates and the media are laying the groundwork for 
electoral challenges similar to what happened in Mexico.  For 
example, Rafael Correa has repeatedly claimed in the press, 
and during his recent meeting with Bielsa, that the elections 
will be fraudulent because of MinDef Delgado's ties to Social 
Christian Party (PSP) leader Leon Febres Cordero.  Ecuadorian 
Roldosista Party (PRE) candidate Fernando Rosero has repeated 
those claims in the press and also formally complained to 
Bielsa. 
 
¶4.  (C) Although Bielsa believes the GOE election authorities 
are doing the best job they can with their resources, he said 
there are potential weaknesses in their preparation that, 
while not strictly fraud indicators, could be used by a 
candidate to claim irregularities.  Specifically, Bielsa 
mentioned that delays in the vote count or the transport of 
votes from provinces to the capital or slow counting could 
lead to speculation.  In this vein, Bielsa is very troubled 
that the GOE Attorney General and the GOE Controller have not 
approved the Supreme Electoral Tribunal's (TSE) contract for 
quick counting with Brazilian firm E-Vote.  The TSE has 
re-affirmed that it will go forward with the E-Vote contract, 
without the two agencies' blessing.  Further, he believes 
that a public expression of dissatisfaction with the 
procurement method or any other aspect of the contract by 
these two GOE agencies could cast doubt upon the election 
results.  Bielsa also mentioned that the GOE is printing too 
many ballots. 
 
¶5.  (C) Bielsa recommended recruiting more OAS observers to 
help quell the latent beliefs that fraud will taint the 
elections.  He believes it is too close to the elections to 
counter the impression of fraud being cultivated by some 
candidates in the media.  He said political parties do not 
have the resources to monitor all the polling stations.  As 
Ecuador has politicized election machinery, it is vital for 
all political parties to be able to observe each step of the 
process in each polling place.  When some multilateral 
organization members asked if they could help supply more 
observers, Bielsa's deputy, Moises Benamor, welcomed the 
offer, but said OAS resources were already accounted for. 
 
Bielsa Meets With Candidates 
---------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) Bielsa said he met with all the political candidates, 
except Alvaro Noboa.  He characterized the meetings as 
productive and informative.  Talking with Correa was "like 
talking to someone with six months to live"; in other words, 
he acts and talks like he has nothing to lose.  Bielsa 
characterized Correa as very intelligent but as someone who 
tended to trivialize many issues. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7.  (C) Conventional wisdom here has been that the elections 
themselves will go relatively smoothly, while governance 
after elections will surely be fraught with challenges. 
Bielsa's views raise the possibility that elections this year 
will not go as well as they have in the past because of fraud 
allegations and gaps in GOE election administration.  Bielsa 
did not analyze how a large margin of victory would alter his 
perceptions.  Bielsa's deputy was more upbeat than Bielsa in 
most of his comments.  However, Bielsa's credible scenario of 
controversial elections raised a red flag with international 
donors. 
JEWELL