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Anne W McNeill  10/13/2006 02:32:30 PM  From  DB/Inbox:  Search Results

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UNCLAS        WARSAW 01683

SIPDIS
CXWARSAW:
    ACTION: ECON
    INFO:   POL ADM MGT ORA FCS DCM AMB PAS

DISSEMINATION: ECOX
CHARGE: PROG

APPROVED: ECON:RRORVIG
DRAFTED: ECON:MSKWARCZEK
CLEARED: NONE

VZCZCWRI363
RR RUEHC RUCPDOC RUEATRS RUEHKW RUCNMEM RUEHFT
DE RUEHWR #1683/01 2241006
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 121006Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY WARSAW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1656
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
INFO RUEHKW/AMCONSUL KRAKOW 1262
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES
RUEHFT/AMCONSUL FRANKFURT 9761

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 WARSAW 001683 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/NCE/MSESSUMS AND DKOSTELANCIK 
STATE PASS USTR FOR DONNELLY/ERRION 
COMMERCE FOR 4232/ITA/MAC/EUR/OECA/MROGERS,JBURGESS,JKIMBA LL 
Frankfurt for Treasury 
Treasury for MGaertner 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: CVIS ELAB SOCI PREL SMIG PL XG XH
SUBJECT: Emigration Tightens Poland's Labor Markets: "Will the Last 
Person to Leave Poland Please Turn out the Lights?" 
 
 
------------------------ 
Summary and Introduction 
------------------------ 
 
¶1.  That Poles are leaving Poland in search of jobs and higher wages 
in other countries is nothing new.  For Poland this is merely dj 
vu, yet another wave of emigration, another generation of young 
Poles leaving the country in search of better opportunities 
elsewhere.  Past migrations of Poles have largely been to the United 
States and Canada and to a lesser extent to Germany, the UK and 
other European nations.  In May 2004 Ireland, Great Britain and 
Sweden opened their borders to workers from the new Eastern European 
EU members and since then, hundreds of thousands of workers have 
migrated to those countries, the majority coming from Poland.  The 
United Kingdom in particular grew in popularity as a destination for 
Polish job-seekers.  The recent Polish migration, however, has been 
a cause of contention at home as citizens question the potential 
consequences of such a mass exodus.  Companies fear losing the best 
and the brightest to foreign firms.  Government officials along with 
intellectuals cite the possibility of a national "brain drain." 
These issues have been the subject of many newspaper articles and 
even prompted one British journalist to write, "Will the last person 
to leave Poland please turn out the lights?" 
 
¶2.   Western firms today increasingly believe wage differentials 
between Poland and Western Europe will narrow more rapidly than 
previously expected due to the competition for labor from Western 
European markets.  Furthermore, the collapse of Polish birth rates 
after 1989 means the number of new entrants to the labor force will 
shrink dramatically in the next ten years, further tightening 
Poland's labor market.  This bodes well for Poland's workers who 
could find themselves in a sellers' market after decades of high 
unemployment. 
 
 
---------------------------------- 
Emigration of the Third Generation 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  This newest wave of migration is considered to be different from 
previous ones and has been dubbed "emigration of the third 
generation" by the Polish newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza.  One of the 
reasons that this emigration is seen as different is because 
Poland's economic and political situation is vastly improved over 
what it was during past migrations.  Since Poland is no longer under 
communist rule and has formally been accepted as a member of Europe, 
in theory there is nothing for Poles to run away from.  The current 
emigration is seen as an opportunity for Poles to learn about 
technology and best practices from other European nations and bring 
their experiences from abroad back to Poland.  While it is unclear 
if, in the long run, Poles will decide to return to Poland or if 
they will be able to apply the skills they learn, that is the hope. 
 
 
¶4.  Living in the information age means that emigrants no longer 
have to break off all contact with Poland once they leave. 
Inexpensive international calling plans and the internet make it 
easy for emigrants to stay in touch with family, friends and Polish 
culture.  Also, bargain airlines such as Wizzair, Central Wings and 
Sky Europe have appeared over the past couple of years and offer 
cheap flights connecting Eastern European cities, including 10 
Polish cities, with the rest of Europe.  These airlines have 
facilitated Polish emigration because they have made it easier than 
ever to travel back and forth between Poland and places of 
employment.  Moreover, budget airlines have made it economically 
viable for Poles to take jobs abroad as temporary or seasonal 
workers, while still giving them a quick and affordable means of 
returning home. 
 
¶5.  The exact numbers of how many people have left is unknown 
because the borders are open and anyone who wants to leave or return 
can do so freely.  In April 2006, the Irish Personal Public Service 
officially reported that there were 140,000 Poles in Ireland, but 
unofficial estimates place the number at about 200,000.  These 
figures would make Poles the largest minority in Ireland, 
representing at least 3 percent of its population.  Between May 2004 
and March 2006, Great Britain reported that approximately 230,000 
Poles applied and were accepted under its worker registration 
scheme.  This number, however, is an underestimate of how many Poles 
actually live and work in Britain, because dependants and workers 
who are self-employed do not need to register.  Some Poles guess 
more than 500,000 people may have left the country since May 2004, 
and more are joining them each month. 
 
---------------- 
Model Immigrants 
---------------- 
¶6.  Poles and other recent Eastern European migrants are 
overwhelmingly considered to be "model immigrants" by their new 
employers and governments.  Many British and Irish companies target 
and recruit Polish workers through newspapers ads and internet 
websites.  In the UK, Polish workers are known for their ambition, 
focus and strong work ethic.  Polish carpenters and other manual 
laborers and known be well qualified and to do their jobs well at 
relatively low cost.  Even though Poles in the UK are entitled to 
social benefits as EU citizens, they very rarely claim any.  The 
Irish feel they have a lot in common with Poles, sharing a common 
religion and a history of economic and political hardship.  Polish 
immigrants - Christian and ethnically European -- tend to blend 
quickly into Western European cities. 
 
¶7.  The courting of Polish workers is not over yet.  This past June, 
Scottish Minister of Finance and Public Service Reform Tom McCabe 
came to Warsaw to encourage workers to go to Scotland as part of its 
'Fresh Talent Initiative.'  During his visit he introduced a new 
information guide for Poles about living in Scotland.  Posters in 
Warsaw's Metro also advertise szkocja.net, a website in Polish with 
informational articles, job announcements and a discussion forum 
geared toward Poles already in Scotland or those thinking about 
moving there.  On May 1, 2006, Spain, Portugal and Finland also 
opened up their borders to the new Eastern European EU nations. 
Everyone, it seems, wants a piece of the Polish pie. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
From Polish Plumbers to Polish Dentists 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  Most Polish emigrants find unskilled jobs abroad, working in 
hospitality, manufacturing, construction or agriculture and make 
little more than minimum wage.  Some of the emigrants who take these 
types of jobs are in fact, unskilled and lack a college degree. 
Others possess university degrees, but still choose to take 
unskilled jobs because they can earn more working as a waiter or 
security guard abroad than working in their profession in Poland. 
This group of emigrants is one that hopes to eventually move up the 
economic ladder, find a higher paying job with more responsibility, 
start their own business, find a job in their field or just earn 
some money and return to Poland.  Many Poles also go to work abroad 
on a seasonal basis such as students working summer jobs and 
agricultural workers.  Beginnings for emigrants are often difficult 
and horror stories of emigrants being taken advantage of by their 
employers are not unheard of.  However, there is a general sense 
that Polish workers have been well treated in Ireland, the UK, and 
Scandinavia 
 
¶9.  Poles believe that one reason that Britain, Ireland and Sweden 
agreed to open their borders to workers from new EU members in 2004 
was because they had low levels of unemployment and numerous job 
vacancies in their labor markets.  Many job openings were in the 
service sector and Poles were seen as taking jobs that were hard to 
fill and ones that others were not willing to take.  However, 
teachers, police officers, nurses, doctors, dentists and other jobs 
that required higher education and English language skills were also 
in short supply.  Thus, while the majority of Poles that leave fit 
the "Polish plumber" stereotype, there is also a substantial Polish 
minority who go abroad to work well-paid, skilled jobs in their 
chosen profession. 
 
---------------------------- 
Symptoms of a Larger Problem 
---------------------------- 
 
¶10.  Doctors, dentists and nurses have been particularly sought 
after in the UK, which is experiencing a shortage of healthcare 
professionals.  Polish doctors and nurses are a good fit because 
Poland's healthcare system is similar to Britain's and Polish 
doctors receive comparable training.  All things considered, Polish 
healthcare workers have considerable incentives to work abroad and 
hundreds if not thousands have done just that. 
 
¶11.  Reports show that a doctor's average monthly salary in Poland 
ranges from about 1500 to 2300 Zloty ($500- $750) and a young doctor 
who is doing his or her residency may earn about half that.  Nurses 
can make as little as 1000 Zloty ($325) a month, before taxes. 
Doctors and nurses in other EU countries can earn up to ten times 
these amounts.  Even though the cost of living in Poland is lower, 
Polish doctors are often forced to work second or even third jobs, 
working 100 hour weeks to support their families.  Even single 
doctors and nurses find it difficult if not impossible to live off 
of their wages alone, a situation that has many doctors to accept 
bribes for providing quality or expedited service in the public 
Polish healthcare system. 
 
¶12.  Recent strikes and protests by healthcare workers throughout 
Poland have only reminded the Polish government of the desperate 
need for healthcare reform.  Poland currently spends slightly less 
than 4% of its GDP on its public health system, less than any other 
EU country.  This past June healthcare workers demanded an immediate 
30% pay raise followed by a 100% pay raise in 2007.  The government 
answered by promising that improvements to the health care system 
would be made, including higher salaries for workers.  In the 
meantime, many Polish healthcare workers have decided to vote with 
their feet; As of January 2006, approximately 600 Polish dentists 
and at least that many doctors have registered to work in Great 
Britain. 
 
-------------------------- 
Brain Drain or Brain Gain? 
-------------------------- 
 
¶13.  No government likes to see its citizens, especially highly 
educated individuals, leave in such large numbers as the Poles have. 
 Much of the discussion surrounding the recent emigration has 
centered on whether or not Poland is experiencing a "brain drain," 
in which its brightest, most innovative and most ambitious citizens 
are the ones leaving.  Many economists believe it is in Poland's 
best interest to keep these people in the country, because they are 
a source national wealth, often willing to take risks and to 
challenge the system.  Emigrants mostly leave for economic reasons 
but money is surely not everything.  Many cite the wider range of 
opportunities available to them in other countries and greater 
possibilities for advancement as motivating factors. 
 
¶14.  The fact is that the vast majority of Poles who leave are 
young; many of them are also college educated.  So a "brain drain" 
does occur when they leave, because Poland's economy and society 
lose the benefits of their intellect and ambition.  However, if 
these individuals return, Poland undergoes a "brain gain" because 
emigrants come back with new experiences and knowledge in a number 
of different fields.  Poles learn industry best practices while they 
are abroad and can apply their new skills when they return.  In 
addition, Poles who return from more developed democracies tend to 
demand more from their government in the areas of accountability and 
transparency.  Thus the "brain drain" may eventually result in a 
"brain gain" if Polish emigrants return to Poland.  Nonetheless, how 
many Poles will choose to come back and how many will stay away is 
yet to be seen. 
 
¶15.  Rafal Dutkiewicz, the president of Wroclaw, a city in 
southwestern Poland that has recently been experiencing high levels 
of growth, decided to take the emigration issue into his own hands. 
Dutkiewicz believes that creating opportunities and the possibility 
of a bright future for young Poles in Poland is vital for the 
county's continued development.  Earlier this year he initiated a 
campaign to entice emigrants to return to Poland, posting an 
advertisement in Polish saying, "Wroclaw also has jobs.  We need 
you!" on a billboard in London. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶16.  Undoubtedly, one of the reasons that so many Poles are leaving 
is the high unemployment rate and lack of opportunities for college 
graduates in Poland.  Even though the Polish unemployment rate has 
dropped to 15.7% from its high of nearly 20% just a few years ago, 
it is still the highest in the EU.  What Poles themselves will 
attest to is that not only is there unemployment in Poland, but 
there is also underemployment and badly paid employment.  A person 
who truly wants a job can most likely find one, but it may not be in 
his or her profession, may require a lower level of education, and 
may not pay a living wage.  Part of the employment problem in Poland 
seems to be that the jobs available do not match the skills that 
Poles possess and that proper economic incentives are not in place. 
This situation has been one of the causes of the considerable black 
market and informal economy in Poland.  People go overseas to make 
money and many of them are frustrated because they feel that they 
have no other option. 
 
¶17.  Private sector firms report that more and more young Poles are 
willing to accept long-term employment in Western Europe.  Rapidly 
expanding Polish family and social networks in Western European 
cities like Dublin and London makes it ever easier for newcomers to 
find a place to live and that key first job.  As a result, private 
sector firms now report growing shortages of skilled labor in 
Poland.  Polish building firms, in particular, are now chronically 
short of skilled workmen, while shipyards lack welders.  Plumbers, 
welders, masonry workers, roofers, and electricians can easily find 
work at relatively high wages in Western Europe.  The result has 
been growing wage pressure in the building trades and increased 
lobbying by local firms to be allowed to bring in workers from the 
Ukraine.  One shipyard welding subcontractor responded to the 
skilled labor shortage by bringing in welders from North Korea, an 
action which generated considerable controversy due to the 
apparently miserable living conditions and low wages received by 
North Korean guest workers in Poland. 
 
¶18.  Western firms today increasingly believe wage differentials 
between Poland and Western Europe will narrow more rapidly than 
previously expected due to the competition for labor from Western 
European markets.  Furthermore, the collapse of Polish birth rates 
after 1989 means the number of new entrants to the labor force will 
shrink dramatically in the next ten years, further tightening 
Poland's labor market.  This bodes well for Poland's workers who 
could find themselves in a sellers' market after decades of high 
unemployment.