VZCZCXRO0592
RR RUEHBI RUEHCI
DE RUEHCG #1746/01 2161135
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 041135Z AUG 06
FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9321
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 1863
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 4826
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL CALCUTTA 0568
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 1242

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 001746 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREF IN
SUBJECT: REFUGEE INFLOW INCREASES AS FIGHTING ESCALATES IN 
SRI LANKA 
 
REF: A) Chennai 1426  B) Chennai 956 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The number of Sri Lankan refugees reaching 
Tamil Nadu shores continues to accelerate.  From a total of 
304 refugee arrivals in January the number has grown to 
1,892, taking the total number of arrivals in 2006 to 5,799. 
Escalated fighting on the island and the welcome signal 
extended by the Tamil Nadu government by doubling the 
refugee dole may prompt even more people to cross over to 
Tamil Nadu in the coming days.  Meanwhile, Tamil Nadu's 
small pro-LTTE parties are trying to pressure the GOI 
through the DMK to refrain from offering any assistance to 
the Government of Sri Lanka in the conflict.  End Summary 
 
--------------------------- 
REFUGEE NUMBERS ON THE RISE 
--------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Although the current refugee influx from Sri Lanka 
to Tamil Nadu is much smaller than the previous waves in 
1983, 1990 and 1995, the numbers are on the increase. The 
total arrivals this year is 5,799 including 783 children. 
The refugees belong to 1,781 families and come mostly from 
the Trincomalee area.  Following are the monthly arrivals 
since the beginning of 2006: 
 
January:   304 
February:  193 
March:      70 
April:      43 
May:      1457 
June:     1750 
July:     1982 
 
¶3. (SBU) According to Chandrahasan, founder of refugee NGO, 
Organization for Eelam Refugees Rehabilitation (OfFERR), the 
numbers are likely to go up in the wake of intensified 
fighting between the LTTE and Sri Lankan forces. 
Chandrahasan told us the Government of Sri Lanka is doing 
everything possible to prevent people from crossing over to 
India, but fear of getting caught in the crossfire prompts 
people to risk the boat journey through the choppy sea. 
Chandrahasan believes that Tamil Nadu could accommodate many 
more, "may be another 50,000," but the resources at the 
camps are meager.  He believes that in the unlikely event of 
the numbers swelling beyond "tolerable limits," the police 
might seize boats and detain boat operators, discouraging 
people from coming over. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
TAMIL NADU'S GESTURE SENDS WELCOME SIGNAL 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) As of now, the Government of Tamil Nadu's (GoTN's) 
signal to the refugees is that they are welcome.  The GoTN's 
announcement as part of its July 22 budget message that it 
will double the dole to the Sri Lankan refugees came as a 
relief in the camps.  According to the decision, the GoTN 
will chip in extra money to increase the dole already 
provided to each refugee by the GOI.  Heads of the family 
will now receive Rupees 400 ($8.5) per month and family 
members will receive amounts ranging from Rupees 144 ($3) to 
Rupees 45 (approx. $1). Additionally, the GOI continues to 
provide rice at nominal prices. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
LTTE'S TAMIL NADU FRIENDS STEP UP PRESSURE 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) Meanwhile, the small pro-LTTE parties of Tamil Nadu 
have criticized the GOI for providing training in Tamil Nadu 
to Sri Lankan "security forces."  According to local news 
reports, both the MDMK and the PMK parties have criticized 
the Central Police Reserve Force (CRPF) for providing 
training to 44 Sri Lankan police personnel in Tamil Nadu. 
Chief Minister Karunanidhi informed the Tamil Nadu Assembly 
that the state is not involved in the police training, and 
he expressed hope that the GOI would consider the 
sensitivity of the training issue.  In an effort to deflate 
the same issue, Sri Lankan Deputy High Commissioner PM Amza 
explained to the Chennai press corps that the program is 
ongoing police training rather than any sort of military 
training. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Separately, The New Indian Express reported on 
August 3 that MDMK General Secretary Vaiko asked Prime 
Minister Singh not to provide security to a Sri Lankan Navy 
 
CHENNAI 00001746  002 OF 002 
 
 
ship transporting personnel to the war zone.  Vaiko was 
quoted as saying in a letter to the Prime Minister: "It has 
come to my knowledge that Sri Lankan President Mahinda 
Rajapakse has appealed to the Indian Prime Minister to 
provide Indian naval escort and assistance to help and 
protect the ship." 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
RESPECTING DMK'S SENSITIVIES, GOI WILL BE GUARDED 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶8. (SBU) COMMENT: The smaller, pro-LTTE parties of Tamil 
Nadu seem to be pressuring Tamil Nadu Chief Minister 
Karunanidhi, who has a history of being sympathetic to the 
Sri Lankan Tamils, to use his influence to restrain India 
from providing any form of assistance to the GoSL in the 
conflict.  Karunanidhi, who up to now has been careful to 
avoid any differences with the Center on the Sri Lanka 
issue, is also eager not to let his government be 
embarrassed by the pro-Eelam politicians.  From our 
perspective in south India, we expect that the UPA 
government at the Center will understand the sensitivities 
of its DMK coalition partner and will keep away from any 
controversial intervention in the Sri Lankan conflict.  End 
Comment. 
 
HOPPER