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INFO RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 9489

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 DUSHANBE 001420 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR P, E, SCA/CEN, EUR/RUS, DRL, S/P 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  7/24/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PROP ECON EINV ENRG MARR KDEM IR
AF, CH, RS, TI 
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S FAREWELL CALL ON PRESIDENT RAHMONOV 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Richard Hoagland, Ambassador, Exective Office, 
Dept. of State. 
REASON: 1.4 (d) 
 
¶1.  (C) During the Ambassador's 90-minute one-on-one farewell 
call with President Rahmonov July 19, the President spoke 
without notes, because, we learned later, he had not expected a 
working meeting.  President Foreign Policy Adviser Erkin 
Rahmatulloyev told us, "Generally, ambassadors come to say a 
protocol good-bye, shake hands, and wonder what gift they'll 
get.  But, on the other hand, none of the others work like you 
do.  Except maybe [Russian Ambassador Ramazan] Adbulatipov, but 
he usually comes to give us orders." 
 
 
 
¶2.  (C) The Ambassador 
 
 
 
-- thanked the President for his productive partnership and 
reviewed the key accomplishments of the last three years, 
including major assistance for the Tajik Border Guards, the 
Pyanzh Bridge under construction, a new U.S. Embassy completed 
and occupied, and a major U.S. company involved in Tajikistan's 
hydro-electric sector. 
 
 
 
-- reviewed the investment climate and advocated for U.S. 
businesses facing problems (Gerald Metals and Comsup); 
 
 
 
-- advocated for a November presidential election that would 
meet international standards, and suggested registering and 
licensing new independent radio and television stations before 
the election, including Asia-Plus TV; 
 
 
 
-- explored the possibility of greater access by the U.S. 
military to support the war against terrorism in Afghanistan; and 
 
 
 
-- asked for Rahmonov's vision for Tajikistan five years from 
now. 
 
 
 
¶3.  (C) Rahmonov thanked the Ambassador for the work he has done 
during his tenure, noting it has left an "indelible mark" on 
Tajikistan, and, especially on the bilateral relationship.  He 
said, "You know that anyone who matters reads and discusses 
every word you publish." Rahmonov thanked President Bush for the 
new attention and respect shown Tajikistan in the past three 
years. 
 
 
 
MILITARY COOPERATION 
 
 
 
¶4.  (C) Regarding increased access by U.S. and coalition forces 
to Tajik military facilities, Rahmonov said he would repeat what 
he told Secretary of Defense Rumsfled on July 10:  "Tajikistan 
will do whatever is in its power to support the war against 
 
DUSHANBE 00001420  002 OF 005 
 
 
extremism and terrorism.  But," he noted, "this is not 2001.  If 
you had taken Kulob Airfield then, you would have it now.  Don't 
ever forget that the success of Manas depends on our blanket 
clearance for your use of our air space.  Today, we are in a 
'spiderweb' of new international commitments and cannot make 
unilateral decisions that violate those commitments."  (COMMENT: 
 The means Russia has largely achieved control of it's sphere of 
influence, unless we can think of creative ways out of this box. 
 END COMMENT.) 
 
 
 
¶5.  (C) Rahmonov said he is extremely grateful for U.S. military 
assistance, notably for the National Guard, and especially for 
the Tajik Border Guards - "They're young and need all the help 
they can get.  Even so, I intend to decrease the number of 
Russian advisers.  If they were truly helping, that would be 
fine.  But I'll tell you frankly I don't like what they are 
doing." 
 
 
 
¶6.  (C) Musing about the U.S. presence in the region, Rahmonov 
said, "You lost Karshi Khanabad in Uzbekistan.  I simply do not 
understand your internal bureaucracy.  If Karimov was annoyed 
with you and your presence was imperiled, why didn't you just 
offer him a few major 'economic projects'?"  (COMMENT: This 
unscripted advice offers insight into how business is done in 
this part of the world:  you can buy your way out of any 
problems.  END COMMENT.) 
 
 
 
RUSSIA 
 
 
 
¶7.  (C)  Rahmonov lamented, "Every single thing we do without 
permission irritates Russia."  He said he's especially 
exasperated by the continuing anti-Tajikistan Russian-media 
propaganda campaign that seems to be geared to portraying 
Tajikistan as a feckless narco-state harboring terrorists.  He 
added that Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are also involved in this 
disinformation campaign about Tajikistan.  (COMMENT:  This is 
the first we've heard Rahmonov complain about Kazakhstan on this 
issue.  He may have in mind the web site  that 
posts Russian disinformation and is reportedly Kazakhstan-based. 
 END COMMENT.) 
 
 
 
¶8.  (C)  Rahmonov said the frequent meetings between Russian 
President Putin and the other CIS presidents are coming to seem 
like the old Soviet Politburo.  He said, "I remind them at every 
meeting the Politburo is gone.  It's a new world."  He repeated 
heatedly, "It's a new world," then added, "but complicated. 
Putin thinks he's the new General Secretary.  That's why we need 
reliable partners like the United States, but we don't have oil 
and gas.  To reduce Moscow's power over us, we need strong 
economic and social development.  That's why we need your help. 
If we become stronger, we become more independent.  We do not 
want to be a 'toy' in anyone's hands.  You tell us your views 
very clearly, but you don't force or threaten us.  And for that 
I am grateful. 
 
 
 
¶9.  (C)  About the new U.S. Embassy, Rahmonov said, "You are the 
first to build a substantial, new embassy.  Never underestimate 
 
DUSHANBE 00001420  003 OF 005 
 
 
the importance of symbols.  It means a lot to us.  Russia simply 
took a 'dolgostroi' [an abandoned Soviet construction project] 
and finished it, but it's already falling apart. 
 
 
 
FOREIGN POLICY 
 
 
 
¶10.  (C)  The President reaffirmed, at length, his "open-door" 
foreign policy and his desire for multiple strong partners.  "We 
will not let Russia and China intimidate us."  He expressed 
gratitude for Washington's "objective and accurate 
understanding" of and growing respect for Tajikistan. 
 
 
 
¶11.  (C)  In an aside, Rahmonov said he gets annoyed with 
European officials who call on him and "don't even know what 
country they're in but tell us we must be like them.  But we try 
to take their views into consideration because we need multiple 
European partners." 
 
 
 
INTERNAL POLICY 
 
 
 
¶12. "You can't force change," Rahmonov said, "but you can help 
us achieve it."  He elaborated that he wants greatly accelerated 
economic development, an end to roads and especially railrods 
that only go north, solutions for social problems and further 
poverty reduction, less corruption, less labor migration, and a 
strong democratic civil society so that people feel they are 
part of the government.  "But we must go slowly.  Foreign 
governments and their NGOs don't understand they cannot 
replicate their own experiences here.  It's essential to 
understand the culture and respect the traditions of the people. 
 The fundamental mistake of the USSR was it didn't respect the 
traditions of its peoples.  Forcing change can lead to mistakes 
and serious consequences."  He paused and then added, "But we do 
respect your views and try to take them into consideration."  We 
want to be a respected and exemplary country in a civilized 
world.  The United States is essential in the region." 
 
 
 
¶13.  Rahmonov declined to be drawn out on the November 
presidential election.  "It's too early.  But if Rahmonov wins," 
he added using the third person, "Tajikistan's foreign policy 
will not change in any dramatic way." 
 
 
 
U.S. INVESTMENT AND WESTERN BUSINESS INTERESTS 
 
 
 
¶14.  The Ambassador explained that international legal cases 
involving TadAz, as a result of the upheaval there in the second 
half of 2004, are still causing concern for Western investors, 
and will continue to inhibit major investment until the cases 
are resolved.  The Ambassador once again brought up the U.S. 
company Gerald Metals, and elaborated on the U.S. political risk 
re-insurer, Chubb, which had to pay out $125 million to Norsk 
Hydro because of the TadAz mess.  The Ambassador said, "Whoever 
was mucking around at TadAz has seriously harmed Tajikistan's 
 
DUSHANBE 00001420  004 OF 005 
 
 
interests, especially because political risk insurers for major 
investment are a very small club, and the TadAz mess is globally 
known."  The President nodded but had no reply. 
 
 
 
¶15.  The Ambassador noted that Dushanbe Mayor Mahmadsaid 
Obaidulloyev is in the process of destroying the one and only 
European-class restaurant in Dushanbe, La Grande Dame, that was 
previously a favorite of Western diplomats, businessmen, and 
potential investors.  He told Rahmonov, "This may seem minor to 
you, but it is totally crazy.  Small things like this can have a 
disproportionate impact on potential investors.  They'll see it 
as an example of chaotic risk, because the restaurant's owner, 
an Australian citizen, had all the proper permission for her 
investment and the construction of her business." Rahmonov 
scowled, turned red, and banged the arm of his chair with his 
fist, which was what we hoped would be the impact on him. 
(COMMENT:  Rahmonov has to walk a very fine line with the 
Moscow-supported wildly corrupt mayor of Dushanbe, but it never 
hurts to get Ramonov's dander up against Obaidulloyev.  END 
COMMENT.) 
 
 
 
HYDRO-POWER 
 
 
 
¶16. (C)  Rahmonov advocated again that the United States take a 
larger role in Tajikistan's hydro-energy sector.  He said, "We 
are sincerely grateful for what you did to get AES here, but we 
want more U.S. active investment and involvement."  He focused 
on the proposed Dasht-i-Zhum dam and hydro-electric station on 
the Pyanzh River between Tajikistan and Afghanistan.  "This is 
as strategic for Tajikistan, Afghanistan, and the region as the 
Pyanzh Bridge.  Like the bridge, it could be oxygen for the 
region.  Maybe the United States can't fund the entire project, 
but I would like you to use your moral and economic power to 
take the lead in the international community to get this built. 
It is essential." 
 
 
 
COMMENT 
 
 
 
¶17. (C) We believe Rahmonov believes in his vision for 
Tajikistan that includes a strong, democratic civil society. 
But what he means and what we mean by those words are not 
necessarily yet fully congruent.  His constant emphasis on the 
need to respect the culture and traditions of the country is not 
wholly just a blow-you-off excuse for his vested-interest 
go-slow approach on these issues.  Tajikistan is in a very tough 
geographical and ideological neighborhood.  Internally, he still 
has many political enemies, like Obaidulloyev.  And, certainly, 
Rahmonov is a product of his place and time.  But he is a shrewd 
and increasingly sophisticated player who sort of gets what we 
say.  We need continually to nudge, but not try to shove, him in 
the right direction. 
 
 
 
¶18.  (C) COMMENT CONTINUED:  Rahmonov was pleasant, 
complimentary, relaxed, and confident.  He sported a new light 
gray summer suit from his personal tailor at Brioni who flies in 
from Italy about every six months. We are pleased he allowed 90 
minutes for the meeting, especially if he had been expecting 
 
DUSHANBE 00001420  005 OF 005 
 
 
only 10-15 minutes.  This is a busy time for him.  Besides the 
normal flow of business, the election is looming, July 21-22 he 
was in Moscow for the informal CIS "Summer Horse Race Summit," 
and July 25-27 Iran's President Amadinejad will be in Dushanbe. 
Rahmonov told us he expects the Chinese Prime Minister for an 
official visit September 15. END COMMENT. 
 
 
 
¶19.  Kabul minimized considered. 
HOAGLAND