VZCZCXRO0561
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHKU #2527/01 1771339
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 261339Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY KUWAIT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5432
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 002527 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ARP, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR ZEYA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2016 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KU FREEDOM AGENDA
SUBJECT: ELECTION COUNTDOWN: CABINET SHUFFLE RUMORED LIKELY 
AS CANDIDATES MAKE FINAL CAMPAIGN PUSH 
 
REF: A. (A) KUWAIT 2446 AND PREVIOUS 
     ¶B. (B) KUWAIT 2394 
 
Classified By: CDA Matt Tueller for reason 1.4 (d) 
 
¶1.  (C/NF) Summary: With the June 29 parliamentary elections 
fast approaching, candidates are making one final push to 
garner support.  Several high-profile former members of 
Parliament are expected to easily win re-election, but beyond 
these it is unclear who will emerge victorious.  Most 
contacts, however, expect Islamists to achieve slight gains. 
As is customary, the Amir will appoint a new Prime Minister 
and Cabinet after the elections.  There is early speculation 
that several Ministers will be replaced, including Energy 
Minister Shaykh Ahmad Fahd Al-Sabah who is frequently accused 
of corruption and vote meddling.  The ruling family has been 
criticized during the campaign to an unprecedented degree, in 
part perhaps due to lingering frustration with the 
intra-family divisions that emerged over the succession early 
this year.  Former Speaker of Parliament Jassem Al-Khorafi 
criticized internal ruling family disputes and warned the 
Al-Sabah of "playing with fire" during a recent campaign 
rally.  In a June 24 Cabinet meeting, the Amir expressed 
"sorrow" at the campaign atmosphere and the deterioration of 
"the level of dialogue."  End summary. 
 
¶2.  (C/NF) Campaigns for the June 29 parliamentary elections 
have entered their final stages with candidates making a last 
minute push to secure votes.  Many candidates are using these 
last several evenings to hold rallies for women, an 
indication that they are taking female voters seriously.  In 
addition, several local youth organizations have held rallies 
protesting corruption and vote-buying, demonstrating the 
active role played by grassroots, pro-reform youth activists 
in these elections.  Several high-profile candidates like 
former Speaker of Parliament Jassem Al-Khorafi, former 
Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee Mohammed Jassem 
Al-Sager, and former Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mishari 
Al-Anjari are expected to easily win re-election.  (Bio note: 
Al-Anjari told Poloff June 25 he would not run for 
re-election as Deputy Speaker.  End note.)  In other 
districts, it is anybody's guess who will emerge victorious, 
though most contacts expect Islamists will achieve slight 
gains (ref B).  Although female candidates like Dr. Rola 
Dashti, a high-profile former IVP participant, have run 
impressive campaigns, they are not expected to win.  One 
website (www.q8vote.com) has a running poll of the leading 
candidates in each district, but the survey methodology and 
limited sample population likely skew the results. 
 
Potential Cabinet Shaykh Up 
--------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C/NF) As is customary, the Cabinet will submit its 
resignation after the elections.  The Amir is required to 
appoint a new Prime Minister who will in turn choose a new 
Cabinet prior to the first sitting of Parliament within two 
weeks of the elections.  The new Cabinet is normally sworn in 
during the first session of Parliament.  Al-Anjari told 
Poloff that the new Parliament would only meet two to three 
times before recessing for the summer.  Though most Kuwaitis 
are focused on the elections, some are beginning to speculate 
about the composition of the new Cabinet.  There are early 
rumors that the Minister of Education and the Minister of 
Social Affairs and Labor could be replaced.  The Arabic daily 
Al-Rai Al-Aam reported June 26 that the First Deputy Prime 
Minister Mohammed Sharar, who also serves as Minister of 
State for National Assembly/Cabinet Affairs, could also be 
dropped, though this is merely speculation.  Many pro-reform 
candidates have pledged to oppose the re-appointment of 
Sharar and Energy Minister Shaykh Ahmed Al-Fahd Al-Sabah, 
both of whom have been widely accused of corruption. 
 
¶4.  (C/NF) The new Cabinet will likely include a new Minister 
of Interior, a post held by Shaykh Jaber Al-Mubarak Al-Sabah, 
who also serves as Minister of Defense, since February. 
Yousef Al-Zalzalah, who resigned as Minister of Commerce to 
run for re-election, may also be replaced, particularly if he 
is defeated at the polls.  The biggest question is whether or 
not Shaykh Nasser Mohammed Al-Sabah will be re-appointed as 
Prime Minister.  Many speculated that his appointment in 
February was a temporary solution to internal family 
squabbles over the position.  Al-Anjari dismissed these 
speculations, however, telling Poloff that Shaykh Nasser 
Mohammed would remain as Prime Minister.  Post agrees; the PM 
is a senior family member who is perceived as having earned 
his position and who has identified political and economic 
reform as his top priorities.  Several MPs who threatened to 
grill the PM confided in EmbOffs that they had nothing 
 
KUWAIT 00002527  002 OF 002 
 
 
against the PM, rather their criticisms were directed at a 
Government weakened by a few influential ministers with 
suspect records. 
 
Al-Sabah Family in the Fray 
--------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C/NF) The ruling family's reaction to these elections is 
extremely difficult to gauge and is certainly not monolithic. 
 The level of criticism aimed directly against top Al-Sabah 
members, rather than "the Government" more broadly, has been 
unprecedented.  Pro-reform candidates and activists have 
sharply accused the ruling family of meddling in the 
elections and fostering an environment conducive to 
corruption.  Even pro-Government candidates have criticized 
the Government for providing too few services to their 
constituents.  Some of this criticism is mere politicking, 
but there is also a genuine, and growing, sense of 
frustration with the perceived failures of the current 
Government and the corruption of some leading Al-Sabah. 
Suggesting there is some merit to these accusations, when the 
Charge asked for a meeting with Shaykh Mohammed Abdullah 
Al-Sabah, an influential young Shaykh accused by many of 
working to manipulate electoral results, his office declined, 
saying, perhaps too honestly, that the Shaykh was "very busy 
with the elections."  A variety of contacts have noted the 
fact that these popular frustrations are being voiced openly, 
a possible indicator of further problems down the road unless 
the ruling family can refurbish its image. 
 
¶6.  (C/NF) Even Al-Khorafi, who has himself been accused of 
corruption, has joined the chorus of criticism.  In a recent 
campaign rally, Al-Khorafi criticized the "conflicts amongst 
the ruling family" and warned the Al-Sabah against "playing 
with fire."  He continued: "The country can,t bear it and 
whoever plays with fire will burn the green and the dry 
alike.  The sons of the royal family must take their fathers 
and grandfathers as role models and not stray from the way 
they were raised.  If there are conflicts, they must be 
resolved between them.  There is no call for the use of means 
that are far from our ways and traditions and values."  "The 
smart person gets it without it having to be spelled out," he 
concluded somewhat vaguely.  During a June 24 Cabinet 
meeting, Amir Shaykh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah expressed 
"sorrow and dismay" at the atmosphere of the campaigns and 
the deterioration in "the level of dialogue," according to a 
statement read by Sharar after the meeting.  The Amir 
emphasized his commitment to Kuwait's "democratic method," 
noting that these practices were "distant from our Kuwaiti 
community and its virtues." 
 
********************************************* * 
For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s 
 
Visit Kuwait's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/ 
********************************************* * 
TUELLER