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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 TOKYO 001769 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST 
DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS 
OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY 
ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 04/03/06 
 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Poll on Koizumi cabinet, political parties, post-Koizumi 
race, DPJ presidential election 
 
(2) Spot poll on DPJ head's resignation 
 
(3) Can Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) make a fresh start? 
Party members now focus their attention on Ozawa, gauging the 
degree of his seriousness about running for the party 
presidential race 
 
(4) Editorial: What is Japan's fair share in the cost of 
relocating US Marines from Okinawa? 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Poll on Koizumi cabinet, political parties, post-Koizumi 
race, DPJ presidential election 
 
MAINICHI (Page 2) (Full) 
April 3, 2006 
 
Questions & Answers 
(T = total; P = previous; M = male; F = female) 
 
Q: Do you support the Koizumi cabinet? 
 
                      T         P         M        F 
Yes                  48       (48)       48       47 
No                   36       (40)       40       33 
Not interested       15       (10)       11       18 
 
Q: (Only for those who answered "yes" to the above question) Why? 
 
T       P       M       F 
Because the prime minister is from the Liberal Democratic Party 
11       (5)       11       12 
Because something can be expected of Prime Minister Koizumi's 
leadership 
28       (29)       27       29 
Because new policy measures can be expected 
17       (17)       19       16 
Because the nature of politics is likely to change 
41       (46)       42       40 
 
Q: (Only for those who answered "no" to the above question) Why? 
 
T       P       M       F 
Because the prime minister is from the Liberal Democratic Party 
11       (13)       0       12 
Because the prime minister compromises too much with the ruling 
parties 
22       (21)       25       20 
Because the nation's economic recovery is slow 
46       (29)       40       51 
Because the prime minister is reluctant to take action against 
political scandals 
15       (25)       19       10 
 
Q: Which political party do you support? 
 
T       P       M       F 
 
TOKYO 00001769  002 OF 006 
 
 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 
33       (31)       33       33 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 
12       (20)       14       10 
New Komeito (NK) 
3       (4)       3       4 
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 
3       (4)       3       3 
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 
3       (2)       1       4 
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 
0       (0)       1       0 
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 
0       (0)       1       0 
Other parties 
1       (1)       2       0 
None 
43       (36)       42       45 
 
Q: Prime Minister Koizumi will not run in the LDP's presidential 
election set for this September and will step down. Who do you 
think is appropriate for the next prime minister? 
 
                        T               M        F 
Taro Aso                3               5        2 
Shinzo Abe             36              32       40 
Heizo Takenaka          3               4        2 
Sadakazu Tanigaki       1               2        1 
Yasuo Fukuda           18              23       13 
Taku Yamasaki           1               2        1 
Not on the list        28              28       27 
 
 
Q: DPJ President Seiji Maehara has clarified his intention to 
resign. Who do you think is appropriate for the next DPJ 
president? 
 
                       T               M        F 
Katsuya Okada          7               6        7 
Ichiro Ozawa          25              35       17 
Yukio Edano            2               2        1 
Naoto Kan             17              19       16 
Yukio Hatoyama         9               8        9 
Kozo Watanabe          4               5        3 
Not on the list       26              20       30 
 
Q: Do you think the DPJ is competent enough to take office? 
 
           T               M        F 
Yes       21              21       21 
No        69              73       66 
 
(Note) Figures shown in percentage, rounded off. "0" indicates 
that the figure was below 0.5%. "No answer" omitted. Parentheses 
denote the results of the last survey conducted Feb. 10-11. 
 
Polling methodology: The survey was conducted Feb. 10-11 over the 
telephone with the aim of calling a total of 1,000 voters across 
the nation on a computer-aided random digit sampling (RDS) basis. 
Answers were obtained from 1,092 persons. 
 
(2) Spot poll on DPJ head's resignation 
 
 
TOKYO 00001769  003 OF 006 
 
 
YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) 
April 3, 2006 
 
Questions & Answers 
(Figures shown in percentage.) 
 
Q: Do you support the Koizumi cabinet? 
 
Yes                      56.8 
No                       34.3 
Other answers (O/A)       2.7 
No answer (N/A)           6.1 
 
Q: Which political party do you support now? 
 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)                    44.0 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto)       12.4 
New Komeito (NK)                                   3.5 
Japanese Communist Party (JCP)                     2.3 
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto)          0.8 
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto)         0.1 
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon)            --- 
Other political parties                            --- 
None                                              34.6 
N/A                                                2.3 
 
Q: The DPJ's Maehara resigned on March 31 as his party's 
president to take responsibility for the fake email fiasco. Do 
you think it's only natural for him to resign as his party's 
president? Do you think it's unavoidable, or do you otherwise 
think he didn't have to? 
 
It's only natural              38.2 
It's unavoidable               41.3 
He didn't have to resign       14.7 
N/A                             5.8 
 
Q: The DPJ's lawmaker Nagata, who took up the fake email problem 
in the Diet, will now resign his Diet seat. Do you think it's 
only natural? Do you think it's unavoidable, or do you otherwise 
think he doesn't have to? 
 
It's only natural              66.2 
It's unavoidable               24.7 
He doesn't have to resign       5.7 
N/A                             3.4 
 
Q: The DPJ has now settled the fake email problem. Is it 
convincing to you? 
 
Yes       40.1 
No        48.7 
N/A       11.3 
 
Q: Who do you think is most appropriate among the following nine 
persons to head the DPJ as its next president? Pick only one, if 
any. 
 
Yukio Edano              1.1 
Katsuya Okada            5.4 
Ichiro Ozawa            24.2 
Takashi Kawamura         4.2 
Naoto Kan               19.3 
 
TOKYO 00001769  004 OF 006 
 
 
Yoshihiko Noda           1.2 
Yukio Hatoyama          10.4 
Kazuhiro Haraguchi       3.2 
Kozo Watanabe            6.3 
Other persons            0.5 
Not on the list          9.4 
N/A                     14.7 
 
Q: Do you think the DPJ is competent enough to take office? 
 
Yes       22.0 
No        67.1 
N/A       10.9 
 
Polling methodology: The survey was conducted April 1-2 over the 
telephone on a computer-aided random digit dialing (RDD) basis. A 
total of 1,786 households with one or more voters were sampled, 
and valid answers were obtained from 1,091 persons (61.1%). 
 
(3) Can Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) make a fresh start? 
Party members now focus their attention on Ozawa, gauging the 
degree of his seriousness about running for the party 
presidential race 
 
NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Full) 
April 3, 2006 
 
Ichiro Ozawa has revealed his enthusiasm for succeeding Maehara 
as head of the largest opposition party Minshuto. He will hold a 
press conference today. Whether he will commit himself to running 
is drawing attention. Local party members are raising 
expectations for him, anticipating that more conservative votes 
will be able to be garnered under his leadership. But if he 
assumes a half-hearted attitude as seen in past party 
presidential elections, Ozawa could end up allowing his 
supporters to turn around and back Naoto Kan instead. 
 
"Mr. Ozawa hasn't ever assumed the post of party president. I'd 
like to see him exhibit his political ability as president 
instead of vice president." One junior lawmaker elected from a 
constituency in the Chugoku Region in western Japan yesterday 
heard this sort of call for Ozawa to lead the party coming from 
local supporters of Ozawa one after the other. A senior member of 
the party's campaign staff for the upcoming Lower House by- 
election slated for April 23 in the Chiba No. 7 constituency 
firmly said, "In terms of a strategy to ensure our victory in the 
election, no one but Mr. Ozawa would be fit for the post of party 
head." 
 
Analyzing the present mood in the party, a veteran lawmaker 
remarked: "If Mr. Ozawa clearly indicated his willingness today 
to run in the party presidential race, a mood ensuring his 
victory would grow stronger." But many in the Ozawa group share 
the view that Ozawa would neither declare his candidacy nor 
dismiss the option of running for the election. 
 
When Kan resigned as party head to take responsibility for his 
failure to pay pension premiums in May 2004, Ozawa was asked to 
succeed him as party head, but he insisted on unanimous support 
from party members to the last moment. If Ozawa now again 
indicates reluctance to lead the party, he would end up 
disappointing the party members. Some would complain that his 
goal is simply to get the post of secretary general. 
 
TOKYO 00001769  005 OF 006 
 
 
 
Meanwhile, Kan is likely to make a big scene of his showdown with 
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi at a Lower House Administrative 
Reform Special Committee session today. Kan's group intends to 
determine his response to the party election after seeing how the 
party members will respond to Ozawa's press conference today. But 
a junior lawmaker of the group aggressively insists: "(Mr. Kan) 
should come forward as candidate even though his defeat is 
certain." 
 
Behind this aggressiveness is the calculation that if Ozawa 
showed ambiguity, the chance of Kan being elected as party head 
would grow. For the stable operation of the party, the party 
leadership needs cooperation from the Kan group. Heeding this, 
the group also expects Kan to grab the post of secretary general 
after finishing as runner-up. 
 
There could be a backlash among young lawmakers who had until 
recently supported Seiji Maehara as party head if the 
presidential election were contested only by Mr. Ozawa and Mr. 
Kan, seeing it as no more than a rigged election. They are 
looking for ways to back another candidate. 
 
(4) Editorial: What is Japan's fair share in the cost of 
relocating US Marines from Okinawa? 
 
YOMIURI (Page 3) (Full) 
 
How should Japan and the United States split the bill for the 
planned transfer of 8,000 US Marines from Okinawa Prefecture to 
Guam? 
 
Senior foreign and defense officials of the two countries are 
scheduled to start talks in Washington tomorrow to make final 
arrangements on the planned relocation. 
 
In talks with the US, Tokyo has mainly sought to maintain the 
deterrence of US forces in Japan and reduce the burdens on 
municipalities hosting US bases. 
 
The transfer of US Marines to Guam is expected to be a great 
opportunity to reduce the excess burden on Okinawa. There is 
every reason for Japan to pay its fair share of the cost. 
 
About 17,000 US Marines and their families will leave for Guam, 
where there is no housing or infrastructure for them. 
 
According to a US estimate, the relocation will cost about 10 
billion dollars, including expenditures for building headquarters 
facilities, housing, and necessary roads. This means the total 
cost would exceed 1 trillion yen. Washington has asked Tokyo to 
pay 75% of the bill. 
 
The United States has defended its demand, saying that the 
planned transfer is a response to Japan's request for a reduced 
US military presence in Okinawa and that Japan's financial 
contribution is essential for realizing a quick transfer. The US 
has also insisted that a portion of US defense spending has been 
used for the defense of Japan. 
 
In repositioning its forces, the US regards Guam as an important 
strategic stronghold in the Asia-Pacific region. The plan to 
transfer US Marine Corps headquarters personnel and logistic 
 
TOKYO 00001769  006 OF 006 
 
 
support troops to Guam constitutes part of the US global military 
strategy. 
 
But Washington's request for Japan to bear 75% of the cost seems 
out of proportion. Tokyo has no reason to accept the one-sided 
demand from Washington. 
 
Japan has proposed covering part of the bill by extending loans 
for the construction of housing for US Marines and their families 
and other facilities. Foreign Minister Taro Aso said: "I would 
like to keep Japan's share to less than 50%. There is a limit to 
what the government can afford to pay." 
 
Japan has no reason to pay for the construction of facilities 
unrelated to the transfer of US Marines. The government should 
urge Washington to clarify a basis for its estimate. 
 
For years, Japan has paid about 230 billion yen annually in host 
nation support (HNS), which is commonly called the "sympathy 
budget" in Japan. 
 
The transfer of US Marines is certain to reduce Japan's HNS. 
However, given Japan's tight financial situation, the relocation 
plan must be truly convincing in order to use taxpayer money to 
build US military facilities. 
 
Earlier, the government said Tokyo and Washington would draw up a 
final report on US force realignment by the end of March, but 
they failed to meet the deadline. 
 
The cost of relocating US Marines to Guam is not the only thorny 
issue. Talks between the government and local communities on a 
number of issues, including a plan to relocate the US Marine 
Corps' Futenma Air Station, have run into snags. 
 
It is Japan's responsibility to step up efforts to convince local 
residents to swiftly reach agreement. 
 
DONOVAN