VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNY #0467/01 1011615
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 111615Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY OSLO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3782
INFO RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO IMMEDIATE 0329

C O N F I D E N T I A L OSLO 000467
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/2016
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV CE NO
SUBJECT: "GRIM" PROSPECTS FOR SRI LANKA PEACE TALKS
Classified By: Acting Pol/Econ Chief Doug Apostol, Reasons 1.4(b) and (
d)

1.(U) This is an action request. Please see paragraph 3.
Summary and Action Request
--------------------------

2.(C) Norwegian Special Envoy Jon Hanssen-Bauer hosted a Sri
Lankan Co-Chair representative meeting at the MFA on April
¶11. Hanssen-Bauer outlined the current situation in advance
of the scheduled April 19 Geneva conference (so-called
"Geneva Two") between representatives of the Sri Lankan
Government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).
Calling prospects of the conference occurring as "grim,"
Hanssen-Bauer noted issues (and internal pressures) dividing
both parties. In addition, he believes recent explosions
(likely the work of the LTTE) and the assassination of a Sri
Lankan official by the rival LTTE faction Karuna further
fueled existing tensions which would forestall the
forthcoming conference. After the Co-Chair representative
meeting, Hanssen-Bauer met alone with Pol/Econ Officer and
candidly revealed that Geneva Two will likely be postponed,
if not canceled. He questioned the Sri Lankan President¥s
grasp of the situation and/or his intentions. The Special
Envoy voiced apprehension about the Janatha Vimukthi Peremuna
(JVP) efforts to demonize Norway through negative propaganda,
which he felt would increase should Geneva Two not take
place, as planned. Finally, he noted the LTTE political
leadership faced internal military pressures, which could
affect Geneva Two moving forward.

3.(C) Hanssen-Bauer plans on releasing a statement
encouraging the parties to continue honoring existing Geneva
commitments and move forward with the Geneva Two meeting. He
is encouraging other Co-Chairs to release similar messages as
soon as possible. Post therefore requests the Department
consider issuing a statement urging the parties to attend the
planned Geneva Two meeting and recognize existing cease-fire
obligations.

Sri Lankan President in Delicate Balancing Act
--------------------------------------------- -

4.(C) Hanssen-Bauer believes that GSL President Rajapaksa
must balance internal political pressures (in addition to
those from rival parties) in any determination to continue
the peace process. Successful Geneva Two talks would improve
the President¥s southern power base (and may influence him
pushing for early elections).

LTTE Sending Mixed Messages
---------------------------

5.(C) Hanssen-Bauer finds mixed messages from the LTTE.
Although the LTTE indicates it wants to go beyond cease-fire
talks and eventually discuss other issues with the GSL (e.g.
economic development and democracy building), the first LTTE
issue is a guaranty of security for the Geneva-bound LTTE
delegation, which Rajapaksa has given. Hanssen-Bauer finds
the LTTE¥s greatest issue is for the GSL to disarm/disband
the Karuna faction. The LTTE feels that the GSL is "shutting
its eyes" to Karuna¥s operations, and speculates that Karuna
may be used by the GSL as a weapon in a war against the LTTE.
The LTTE concludes that the GSL armed forces, in addition to
the Karuna paramilitary forces, could defeat the LTTE
militarily.

6.(C) In addition, the LTTE asserts that the government¥s
failure to disarm/disband military groups (particularly
Karuna in the east) is a direct violation of the first Geneva
talks. According to Hanssen-Bauer, nothing has been done by
the GSL to address this LTTE issue. The Special Envoy feels
that the LTTE would accept the containment of the Karuna
faction (and not press for disbanding Karuna) as a
precondition for the LTTE proceeding with Geneva Two.

7.(C) Finally, the LTTE Central Committee seeks the GSL¥s
assistance in arranging a LTTE pre-Geneva "strategy meeting"
to be held in Kilinochichi. Rajapaksa has refused to offer
military transport to bring LTTE forces to Kilinochichi,
which Hanssen-Bauer suspects is a result of the President¥s
perceived need to show that he is not "soft" to political
rivals. Earlier GSL governements have provided such military
transport. Hanssen-Bauer noted that the LTTE could be asked
to go to Geneva Two without the Central Committee meeting,
but the result will create a "negative" atmosphere in Geneva.
Norway supports the Central Committee meeting, viewed as a
means of preventing the LTTE¥s isolation (and resort to
violence).

¶8. (C) Hanssen-Bauer spoke at length about his concern of
increased violence by the LTTE, specifically three incidents
of claymore mine attacks (most recently today). The
LTTE-sponsored attacks are apparently retaliation for the
Karuna-sponsored assassination of Vanniasingham Vigneswaran,
a moderate Tamil politician in Trimcomalee.

Frustrated Norwegians Resolved to Move Forward
--------------------------------------------- -

9.(C) Although Hanssen-Bauer is concerned with the recent
acts of violence, he impressed upon Co-Chair representatives
the need to move forward. Prior to the recent claymore
attacks, the LTTE advocated postponing Geneva Two. In his
view, the GSL now thinks the LTTE must go to Geneva,
particularly given Canada¥s listing of the LTTE as a
terrorist organization. Norway will issue a statement today
urging the parties to go to Geneva, and welcomes similar
statements form Co-Chair countries. The statement will
essentially provide that Norway encourages the parties to
meet face-to-face and halt tensions, but such decision must
be that of the GSL and LTTE themselves.

10.(C) The Norwegians view a constructive conversation at
Geneva Two as a means to defuse the charged climate. He
viewed any LTTE postponement of Geneva Two as likely leading
to the LTTE being recognized by the EU as a terrorist group.
Most importantly, he restated that the LTTE must cease its
violence. He informed the GSL that it must comply with its
existing Geneva obligations (including honoring the
cease-fire).

11.(C) Admittedly frustrated by both the GSL and LTTE demands
on Norway, Hanssen-Bauer has reminded them that Norway¥s role
is limited as a facilitator and, if "they are serious," both
the parties should enable each other to attend Geneva Two.
He noted that "Norway cannot make the meeting happen if the
GSL and LTTE do not want it to happen." Hanssen-Bauer,
stating that the atmosphere was "grim today, and hopefully
positive tomorrow" felt that if the parties do not meet on
April 19, he will advocate for a postponement, and not a
cancellation.

"Low-key Statements" Requested from Co-Chairs
---------------------------------------------

12.(C) When pressed by the Japanese Ambassador, Hanssen-Bauer
envisioned any supportive statements from the Co-Chairs as
being both "low-key" and "outside the public eye." These
statements would be directed only to the parties involved,
and should stress the importance of Geneva Two. The parties
should thus meet to defuse violence and further implement the
existing cease-fire agreement.

Parties Need to Get Their Acts Together
----------------------------------------

13.(C) Following the Co-Chairs representative meeting,
Hanssen-Bauer met privately with Pol/Econ Officer. The
Special Envoy started the meeting by praising Ambassador
Lunstead¥s efforts in Colombo (particularly regarding the
LTTE¥s military transportation requests). The Special Envoy
is troubled that President Rajapaksa is either consistently
uninformed or not forthcoming. He also voiced concerns that
the LTTE political leadership is facing increasing pressures
from the LTTE military leadership. Hanssen-Bauer seemed
particularly concerned about the JVP, despite its recent
election losses. He believes that postponing or canceling
Geneva Two will be seen as a JVP victory, which has stepped
up its anti-Norwegian propaganda efforts. With the recent
elections, Hanssen-Bauer states that the parties have not had
time to "get their acts together" and focus on issues leading
up to Geneva Two. He concludes that Geneva Two will be
postponed, or even perhaps canceled. The question remains as
to which party will actually cancel/postpone the conference.
Visit Oslo¥s Classified website:
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