VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNR #1444/01 0930333
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 030333Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0700
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA IMMEDIATE 8370
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI IMMEDIATE 4086
INFO RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 3810

UNCLAS NAIROBI 001444 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/E, AF/EPS, AF/PD, EB, PRM/AF, IO 
AID FOR A/AID, AA/DCHA, WGARVELINK, LROGERS, MHESS, 
DCHA/OTI, 
DCHA/OFDA FOR GGOTTLIEB, MMARX, IMACNAIRN, KCHANNELL 
DCHA/FFP FOR JDWORKEN, JDRUMMOND, TANDERSON, DNELSON, 
SBRADLEY 
AID/EGAT FOR AA/EGAT, JSCHAFER, JTURK 
AFR/EA FOR JBORNS, SMCCLURE 
ADDIS ABABA FOR TIM STUFFT 
DJIBOUTI FOR JSCHULMAN 
ROME FOR FODAG 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER 
NSC FOR JMELINE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
 
TAGS: AMGT OTRA ASEC
SUBJECT:  HORN OF AFRICA, STATE - USAID HUMANITARIAN 
UPDATE NUMBER 3 
 
REF:  A)STATE 27057; B)NAIROBI 00968; C)NAIROBI 01238 
 
¶1.  This is the third update cable in response to Ref A 
request for biweekly reports on the humanitarian 
situation in the Horn of Africa.   USAID Missions in 
Kenya and Ethiopia, REDSO (Somalia, Djibouti), and 
OFDA/ECARO contributed to this report. 
 
FLASH REPORT 
 
¶2.  Early reports from an ongoing (March 25 - April 2) 
REDSO site visit to northeast Kenya - Mandera, El Wak, 
Wajir, and Garissa ? describe a bleak picture.  Although 
there has been scattered rainfall in the last two weeks, 
it has been too localized and too low to have an impact 
of worsening drought.  In the Mandera region, livestock 
are essentially gone:  A handful of sheep, goats, cattle 
and camels dot the landscape, but even camels, known for 
their resiliency to drought, are dying.  The regional 
Mandera livestock market, once dynamic, has collapsed. 
There are increasing numbers of nomadic families who 
have lost all their animals arriving in Mandera town in 
search of food.  It is the end of the road for many of 
these pastoralist "drop-outs," now totally dependent on 
food aid.  The World Food Program (WFP) is feeding about 
80 percent of the population at 75 percent caloric 
needs, but even this may not be enough.  Malnutrition 
rates range from 21 - 30 percent in supplementary 
feeding centers, with large numbers of Ethiopians, 
Kenyans and Somalis being cared for.  Humanitarian 
assistance has not yet managed to stabilize the 
deteriorating situation, and more is needed.  In the 
worst case scenario of no rains, famine looms.  In the 
best case scenario that some April - May rains fall, it 
will take years for pastoralist livelihoods and herds to 
be re-established. 
 
COUNTRY REPORTS 
 
¶3.  KENYA 
 
UPDATE ON THE HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT:  On March 
28 in Nairobi, the national coordinator of the Arid 
Lands Resource Management Project of the Kenyan Office 
of the President in Kenya updated a small donor group on 
a proposed Drought Contingency Fund, which would be 
overseen by a steering committee of government, donor, 
and civil society representatives.  The purpose of the 
Fund is to disburse prevention and preparedness grants 
to local authorities of drought-prone and affected 
districts in Kenya to address recurrent drought early 
on.  The European Commission is preparing to commit euro 
4.6 million to the initiative. 
 
DONOR RESPONSE UPDATE:  USAID/OFDA has provided a total 
of $2.6 million to meet non-food needs, and is in the 
process of approving an additional $2.5 million for 
nutrition and water interventions through UNICEF and 
other NGOs.  On the food aid side, in FY 06 FFP has 
contributed 44,890 MT of food aid worth $32 million.  At 
present, 37 percent of WFP's emergency operation (EMOP) 
requirement ($225 million) has been resourced.  Current 
distributions contain adequate cereals, but are 
critically short of pulses and oil.  This will improve 
with a FFP arrival in May.  There are no new donor EMOP 
donations. 
 
The Kenyan Red Cross Society reports that Kenyan 
communities (private sector, civil society organizations 
and individuals) have mobilized approximately $1.4 
million cash and $355,000 in in-kind relief resources in 
 
response to the drought. 
 
UPDATE ON THE FOOD SECURITY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:  Food 
security in the pastoral households continues to 
deteriorate precariously as the dry season reaches its 
peak.  The World Bank funded Arid Lands Resource 
Management Project (ALRMP) reported that little or no 
rainfall was received in the northeast regions that 
require the rains most.  Watering distances of up to 50 
- 60 miles for pastoralists in Wajir and Mandera 
actually necessitate migration into Somalia and 
Ethiopia, however, remaining animals are not strong 
enough to trek more than 15-20 miles due to their 
weakened body condition. 
 
REDSO/FFPO, Dan Suther was in Wajir on March 29, and 
reports that the situation is worsening.  Virtually all 
the animals are gone and the few camels left are now 
dying.  The NGO Merlin reports global acute malnutrition 
rates of 29-30 percent in supplementary feeding centers. 
Pastoralists with remaining animals are moving to water 
points, setting up camp and waiting for food aid to 
arrive.  Pastoralist "drop-outs," who have nothing left 
are moving to urban centers.  In Mandera district, 
Suther reports the situation is not any better.  The 
major regional livestock market has collapsed.  Numbers 
at the water points and distribution centers in town are 
increasing.  Action Against Hunger (AAH) in Mandera 
reports global malnutrition rates of 21 - 27 percent, 
with 30 percent of the children from Ethiopia, and 20 
percent from Somalia.  Should the long-rains season fail 
to pick up in April, few animals are likely to survive 
the extended dry spell and substantial numbers of 
pastoralists will lose their entire livelihood.   This 
would add to the growing number of pastoralist ?drop- 
outs? that become part of the urban poor. 
 
From March 21 - 24, OFDA Regional Advisor Al Dwyer 
traveled to the northern Kenyan district of Marsabit. 
Families report that although they usually have about 
100 head of livestock on average, they are down to 20 - 
30 animals due to lack of pasture and water.  Conflict 
has arisen between tribes, disrupting grazing patterns 
and exacerbating poverty.  WFP is delivering food aid, 
but is short of pulses and oil.  Water trucking has 
begun, and more boreholes are being dug.  OFDA is 
supporting these efforts through UNICEF.  The 38 health 
clinics that OFDA Dwyer visited were functioning well. 
Failure of the April - May rains will eliminate many 
remaining animals, and force people into urban centers 
in search of food.  Local officials and populations 
highlighted the fact that drought occurs at regular 
intervals, but that they need developmental programs to 
break the boom and bust cycle. 
 
¶4.  ETHIOPIA 
 
UPDATE ON THE HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT:  Needs in 
the Somali and Borena zones are increasing, and the UN 
has issued the 2006 Humanitarian Appeal for $14 million. 
Only $2.1 million has been received so far.  USAID 
participated in several GOE Disaster Preparedness and 
Prevention Agency (DPPA) reassessments.  In the Borena 
Zone in the Oromiya region, the team's recommendation is 
that beneficiary numbers be increased from 155,000 to 
368,000 to cope with worsening drought conditions. 
Final official figures will be released by the DPPA. 
The GOE is leading reassessments in Afder and Liben 
zones of the Somali region, and the Afar region.  A 
critical issue is identifying a solution for many of the 
435,000 beneficiaries in Afar who have been identified 
 
to receive food assistance.  Although 54,600 received 
emergency food assistance, the rest fell under the 
Productive Safety Net Program, which, unfortunately, has 
not been operational in Afar in 2006. 
 
Therapeutic feeding programs have been hampered by a 
requirement to pay duty on imported food, even though 
used for humanitarian purposes.  A sea change may be 
underway.  The Ministry of Finance and Economic 
Development has issued a proclamation number to UNICEF 
that will now allow duty-free entry of "plumpy nut" 
therapeutic food.  It is hoped that the proclamation 
number will apply to all donors and NGOs, and 
clarification is underway. 
 
CARE and the Government of the Oromiya Region have 
tankered over 4 million liters of water to the Borena 
zone, primarily for human consumption but also for 
livestock. 
 
The Somali Regional Health Bureau and UNICEF have 
completed Enhanced Outreach Strategy activities in 20 
zones in the Somali Region.  According to UNICEF, 
160,000 children received vitamin A supplements, 137,000 
children were de-wormed, and 159,000 children were 
vaccinated against measles (83 percent coverage).  In 
addition, 48,000 children and 10,700 pregnant or 
lactating women were referred to DPPB for targeted 
supplementary feeding. 
 
The Pastoralist Livelihoods Initiative (PLI) response is 
continuing to gain momentum.  Over 140,000 head of 
livestock have been de-stocked, or are in the de- 
stocking process.  In the Somali Region, over 470,000 
animals have been vaccinated.  An additional 160,000 
animals are planned to be vaccinated in the Oromiya 
region. Approximately 27,000 animals in breeding herds 
are being maintained by PLI partners, with additional 
animals planned. This intervention includes food and 
sometimes water provision for these herds.  Additionally 
16 animal health care workers have been trained and 
deployed. 
 
DONOR RESPONSE UPDATE:  As of March 26, 2006 DPPA has 
reported 18 percent and 11 percent of food allocations 
were dispatched for the Somali region for February and 
March respectively.  The reported dispatches for the 
Oromiya region are 86 and 4 percent for February and 
March respectively. 
 
The food pipelines for CSB and cereals break in June, 
2006, and for pulses and oil at the end of December 
¶2006.  WFP estimates an additional 250,000 MT of cereals 
and CSB will be required for the second half of 2006.  A 
small CSB donation was made by the Italians after it was 
requested by WFP, but this donation only fills the CSB 
pipeline through the end of June.  No other donors have 
made further commitments to WFP at this time. 
 
USAID/OFDA is supporting rapid response water and 
nutrition interventions totaling $300,000.  Furthermore, 
USAID/OFDA has awarded grants to CHF International for 
water and sanitation projects in Gode and Afder Zones of 
the Somali Region, to Merlin for water and sanitation in 
West Imi in Afder Zone, and to Population Services 
International (PSI) to provide water treatment products 
and treated bed nets to other OFDA water and nutrition 
partners responding to the drought. Implementation of 
these projects and several more currently under review 
will help fill a major gap in the drought response thus 
far. 
 
 
UPDATE ON THE FOOD SECURITY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK: 
FEWSNET reports that the belg rains have been erratic 
and late across Ethiopia.  In the most affected regions 
of southeast Ethiopia, no rains have fallen, raising 
concern that cattle conditions will be as bad as they 
were in the 2000 severe drought.  On the other hand, the 
onset of good rains in the higher altitude regions of 
the Oromiya region has been reported.  Browse has 
regenerated for camels and goats, and pasture is showing 
the initial signs of recovery. 
 
¶5.  SOMALIA 
 
UPDATE ON THE HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT:  On March 
21 in Nairobi, the revised UN Consolidated Appeal (CAP) 
for Somalia was launched.  The revised CAP seeks Usd 326.7 
million for 92 projects for the remaining of the year. 
At this point, Usd 79 million or 24 percent has been 
committed against the appeal, and water and health needs 
remain largely unfunded.  The UN Humanitarian 
Coordinator stressed that Somalia"s infant, child and 
maternal mortality rates are among the highest in the 
world; average life expectancy is just 48 years; and 
primary school enrollment rates are the lowest in the 
world, and appealed to the humanitarian community to 
scale up its current response. 
 
Somali political leaders including the President, Prime 
Minister, and Speaker of the Parliament, joined Inter- 
governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Foreign 
Ministers and Heads of State in Nairobi March 18-20 for 
the 11th Summit of IGAD Heads of State and Government. 
Discussion among the Heads of State focused on whether 
and how to provide external military support to the 
Somali Transitional Federal Institutions (TFIs) meeting 
in Baidoa, Somalia.  The Summit's final communique 
reiterated the principal elements set out by the UN 
Security Council, leading observers to hope that IGAD 
will now take a back seat to the Somali institutions in 
developing a National Security Plan. 
 
Heavy fighting broke out again in the capital March 22- 
¶26.   Forces of the members of the Alliance for the 
Restoration of Peace and Fighters Against Terrorism -- 
ARPFAT -- have been encircled in their strong-holds. 
The principal antagonist against members of the ARPFAT 
in this episode of fighting, businessman/Islamic Court 
financier Abucar Omar Adani (a major shipper and 
distributor of food assistance for WFP), is now in 
control of all areas critical to his and the Banadir 
Corporation business cartel's commercial operations out 
of the El Ma'an port.  The members of the ARPFAT have 
seen their income generating capabilities crippled, 
although Adaani has stated that he has now established 
security over the El Ma'an port infrastructure for the 
use of all Somali business interests. 
 
DONOR RESPONSE UPDATE:  A drought committee in Mogadishu 
announced on January 30, 2006 that it had raised 
$165,000 in cash, 444 MT of assorted food donations, and 
15 water tankers.  The donations were raised through an 
innovative telethon coordinated through three local 
telephone companies and organized jointly by the Somali 
Institute of Management and Administration Development 
(SIMAD) and Radio Horn Afrik in collaboration with a 
wide number of civil society representatives.   Sixty 
percent of contributions were from women and most 
donations were from Mogadishu. 
 
UPDATE ON THE FOOD SECURITY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK: 
 
FEWSNET reports localized rains in parts of Lower Juba, 
Bay and Gedo.  However, while they provided some very 
short-term relief, they were not enough to slow a 
deteriorating food security situation, and people are 
resorting to their own coping mechanisms such as 
reducing the number of meals, eating wild fruits, and 
moving to IDP/destitute camps and urban centers. 
Complete out migration to main towns for social support 
and labor were also reported.  There has been an 
increase in the slaughtering of weak and newly born 
animals.  FEWSNET estimates that 80 percent of the 
cattle, and 40 - 50 percent of sheep and goats have 
died.  The Somalia FEWSNET Representative traveled to 
Gedo to investigate reports of human deaths.  He 
estimates that 20 ? 45 people died (about one-half of 
them children) from a combination of malnutrition, 
related disease, and thirst.  The FEWSNET Representative 
said that most of the deaths occurred in nomadic 
households who are far from roads and villages, and 
likely missed food aid distributions.  He also said food 
aid distributions by WFP, CARE, ICRC, Muslim aid, and 
the business community are in progress, although 
quantities are not sufficient (he mentioned one bag of 
sorghum and some oil per household) for the level of 
need. 
 
OTHER TOPICS OF SPECIAL INTEREST:  We welcome the news 
that funding has been approved for 24 FEWSNET monitors 
in Somalia to collect market and rainfall data and some 
possible additional surge funding.  There is still a 
need for supplemental funding to provide on-the-ground 
independent monitoring of humanitarian activities. 
Already, the rumor mill is churning with reports of 
deaths and communities not receiving food aid.  Without 
the ability to separate truth from rumor, there will be 
imbalances in the humanitarian response, which are 
likely to lead to increased attacks on humanitarian 
deliveries and further jeopardize the provision of 
assistance to those in need.  REDSO/FFP's March 31 
Somalia logistics report also confirms the need for 
ongoing monitoring.  We recommend establishment of 
independent humanitarian assistance monitoring capacity 
in Somalia whether through FEWSNET or another body. 
 
Access is becoming more challenging for food aid 
agencies.  On March 21, clan fighting broke out at a WFP 
distribution site outside Bualla in the Juba region 
killing one person.  An ICRC relief convoy was attacked 
in Belet Weyne, and there was at least one casualty. 
Following these security incidents, the UN Security 
Office has advised that expatriate staff should not 
travel to the Juba Valley ? the exact area most affected 
by the drought where food aid is needed. 
 
¶6.  DJIBOUTI 
 
UPDATE ON THE HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT: 
Increasing numbers of pastoralists face a high risk of 
dropping out of pastoralism due to progressive erosion 
of their livestock assets.  Malnutrition levels from 
clinics and rapid assessments are high with the poor 
state of health services making things worse. 
 
DONOR RESPONSE UDPATE:  WFP plans to feed up to 88,000 
people in April.  The humanitarian response if kept at 
that level and well targeted is expected to be 
sufficient to prevent the humanitarian situation from 
deteriorating. 
 
UPDATE ON THE FOOD SECURITY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK: 
 
Recent showers have resulted in marginal improvements in 
water and pasture, and satellite images indicate some 
 
"greening" between February and March as a result of 
these showers.  There have also been reports of actual 
rains during this period to corroborate the satellite 
information.  However, these rains are considered 
insufficient to make any significant improvements in the 
food security situation.  There have been no major 
increases in market prices of food and other consumable 
commodities in the city.  A stable situation in the city 
usually has positive implications for rural households 
who receive remittances from city relatives. 
 
CONCLUSION 
 
¶7.  As this report describes, drought is deepening 
across the Horn of Africa causing increasing numbers of 
pastoralist "drop-outs," or those who have lost all 
their animals, to become dependent on humanitarian 
assistance for survival.  Current humanitarian 
assistance, especially non-food activities, has not been 
adequate to protect livelihoods.  In the best case 
scenario that some rains fall over the next several 
months, it is unlikely they will reverse the 
deteriorating food security situation and will likely 
cause water borne diseases and mortality among weakened 
humans and animals.  Given that forecasts show a high 
probability of normal to below normal rains, donors 
should mobilize now and prepare for the worst case 
scenario.  A Kenyan proverb says, "Koth en chiemo," 
which means "Rain is food."     BELLAMY