VZCZCXRO7432
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DE RUEHIL #4767/01 0810559
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 220559Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2959
INFO RUEHTA/AMEMBASSY ALMATY PRIORITY 9347
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RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 004767 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2021 
TAGS: PGOV PTER MOPS PK
SUBJECT: ANP AND PPP MOVING TOWARDS ACCOMMODATION WITH THE 
GOVERNMENT 
 
 
ISLAMABAD 00004767  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: Derived from DSCG 05-01, d. 
 

¶1.  (S) Summary:  In recent separate meetings, Awami National  Party (ANP) Chairman Senator Asfandyar Wali Khan and Pakistan  People's Party Parliamentarians (PPPP) Chairman Makhdoom Amin  Fahim delivered closely coordinated messages to the Embassy. 
Both leaders were prepared to support an alliance of  ""liberal"" forces under Musharraf, as their parties and the  ruling party would face a common enemy in the 2007 elections 
-- the Islamists.  If this were not possible, the parties  would accept a post-electoral alliance.  The ANP and PPPP  were prepared to cooperate with the GOP on the Global War on  Terrorism and its concept of ""enlightened moderation.""  Asfandyar, however, made several suggestions to improve GOP  performance in this area, including: transfer of intelligence  personnel previously involved in supporting the Taliban,  increased emphasis on economic/social development and  political reform in FATA, and closer coordination between  liberal parties and the GOP in pursuit of extremist/terrorist  elements.  End Summary. 
  Awami National Party 
-------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) In a March 17 meeting with the Ambassador, ANP  Chairman Senator Asfandyar Wali Khan stated that following  extensive discussions the ANP had finally arrived at a common  understanding with the GOP.  Asfandyar's call followed  immediately from his first meeting with President Musharraf  since the 2002 elections.  According to Asfandyar, the two  leaders agreed that they shared a common vision to promote a  moderate, democratic Pakistan and a common goal of defeating  terrorist and extremist elements.  Asfandyar promised his  party's cooperation in the GOP's efforts to track and  apprehend terrorists in FATA and NWFP and agreed to share any  information that his party developed on their whereabouts. 
Asfandyar sought an electoral understanding for 2007 with the  Pakistan Muslim League (PML) and other like-minded parties,  including the PPPP, in which they would support common  candidates in order to minimize the success of Islamist  parties.  Asfandyar indicated that Musharraf was receptive  but non-commital.  Asfandyar made clear that, absent such an  agreement, his party would still offer its support to GOP  counterterrorism efforts and would participate in a  post-election coalition government.  Asfandyar seemed  relatively convinced that the ANP would be given a fair  chance during the 2007 elections following his discussions  with Musharraf. 
 
¶3. (S) While Asfandyar termed his meeting with Musharraf  ""positive,"" he shared a number of concerns about the GOP's  counterterrorism efforts.  Asfandyar maintained that,  although the leadership of the Inter-Services Intelligence  Directorate (ISI) was committed to tracking and apprehending  al-Qaida and former Taliban, its on-the-ground operatives  were not.  Many had previously supported these elements and  had personal connections that have led them to defy  Musharraf's policy.  To overcome this problem, Asfandyar  recommended the immediate transfer of all ISI agents from  FATA that had previously worked with the Taliban and  mujahideen.  Asfandyar argued that increased emphasis needed  to be placed on social and economic development in the FATA  as a complement to military/law enforcement efforts.  He  praised the new GOP development plan and stated that he was  providing Musharraf a copy of his party's own plan so that  the two could be merged. Asfandyar asserted that political  reform was necessary in the FATA.  Immediate progress could  be made in all agencies, save North and South Waziristan,  where extremists groups had a stranglehold on local politics. 
 As a first step, administration should be shifted from the  federal to the NWFP provincial government, thereby building  political ties between the agencies and the NWFP.  Asfandyar 
  ISLAMABAD 00004767  002.2 OF 002 
 
  claimed to have pressed Musharraf for closer cooperation with  his party as it pursued terrorists in the FATA.  He cited  several cases in which local leaders from the ANP had been  erroneously arrested and interrogated for alleged links to  extremists. 
  Pakistan People's Party Parliamentarians 
 
¶5. (C) In a separate meeting the same evening with poloff,  PPPP Chairman Makhdoom Amin Fahim raised many of the same  points, including the need for an electoral understanding  with ANP and PML and the PPPP's willingness to participate in  a coalition government.  Fahim again pressed for a resumption  of serious negotiations between the PPPP and the government,  lamenting the fact that his party had not been included in  the ANP meetings.  According to Fahim, the PPPP is willing to  negotiate all issues, including the future status of Benazir  Bhutto, in pursuit of a common pre-election understanding and  would not/not insist on her candidacy in the 2007 National  Assembly elections.  He also expressed a strong desire to  move quickly to bring together leaders of all parties to  negotiate and implement changes in the election law.  Fahim  stressed that the recent meeting between Bhutto and Pakistan  Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader Shahbaz Sharif in Dubai  was ""meaningless.""  The PPPP wants to keep its alliance with  the PML-N only long enough to recapture the opposition leader  job in the Senate for Raza Rabbani.  After that, the PML-N  can be easily abandoned.  Fahim emphasized that most of those  remaining in the PML-N were neither democrats nor liberals,  making the PML-N's participation in any common understanding  problematic. 
  Comment 
 
¶6. (C) Post believes that the ANP and the PPPP had  coordinated their messages and are serious about their shared  desire to build a pre-election coalition of like-minded  moderate parties, including the PML.  Both recognize that a  united opposition which includes the Islamists is contrary to  their political goals and will ultimately weaken their  parties.  With Fahim's statement that the PPPP is prepared to  consider a non-elected role for Bhutto (at least until the  National Assembly elections are over), the ""like-minded  coalition"" may well be achievable.  The ANP's decision to  cooperate actively with the GOP in counterterrorist  operations in FATA and NWFP is important.  Its on-the-ground  presence in these areas can help both to spur residents to  increased cooperation and extend the government's information  network in these critical areas. 
 
¶7. (U) MINIMIZE CONSIDERED.  CROCKER