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FM AMEMBASSY GABORONE
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INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 GABORONE 000453 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR MUNCY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON KHIV PHUM MOPS BC
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR DAS THOMPSON'S VISIT TO BOTSWANA 
 
REF: 05 GABORONE 1721 
 
¶1. Mission Botswana welcomes the visit of DAS Carol 
Thompson on April 12-13.  As a stable, middle-income, 
multi-party democracy, Botswana represents the potential of 
Africa.  Yet, Botswana faces significant challenges - a 
severe HIV/AIDS epidemic, an international human rights 
controversy over the treatment of the San, extreme income 
inequality, and the need to diversify its diamond-based 
economy.  The Mission is engaging Botswana on all of these 
fronts to enhance our partnership and support it in 
proactively consolidating its achievements at home and 
promoting their emulation abroad. 
 
A STABLE, MULTI-PARTY DEMOCRACY 
 
¶2. Since Botswana achieved independence from Great Britain 
in 1966, it has been a stable, multi-party democracy.  The 
ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) won a majority in 
the October 2004 parliamentary election, as it has in every 
election since independence.  Support for opposition 
parties, however, has steadily grown.  Although they polled 
a combined 48 percent of the popular vote in 2004, this 
yielded only 23 percent of the National Assembly seats. 
Their hopes to unite to unseat the BDP in 2009 are dim due 
to infighting and the popularity of Vice President Seretse 
Khama Ian Khama -- son of first president Sir Seretse Khama 
-- who is likely to succeed President Mogae in March 2008. 
 
A DEVELOPMENT SUCCESS STORY 
 
¶3. At independence, Botswana was one of the ten poorest 
countries in the world.  The country had an annual per 
capita income of less than $100, fewer than 8,000 meters of 
paved road, and only a handful of university graduates. 
Following the discovery of diamonds in 1967 and 
commencement of mining in 1971, this situation began to 
change.  Unlike other nations blessed with great mineral 
wealth, the Government of Botswana ploughed its diamond 
revenues into investments in infrastructure, education and 
health care.  Between 1967 and 1997, Botswana's economy 
grew at an average annual rate of nine percent.  By 2000, 
Botswana became one of the few developing countries to 
graduate to middle-income status and earn an investment 
grade sovereign credit rating at the "A" level.  Today, 
this Texas-sized country of 1.7 million people enjoys an 
annual per capita income of $4,800.  That wealth, however, 
is extraordinarily concentrated.  Botswana suffers from 
high unemployment (24 percent) and poverty rates (30 
percent).  The implications of this skewed income 
distribution became clear when a recent diarrhea outbreak 
resulted in over 400 infant deaths, many of already 
malnourished children. 
 
¶4. In 2005, Botswana's economy grew at 8.3 percent, due 
overwhelmingly to growth in the value of its diamond 
exports based on increased output and a favorable 
adjustment to the exchange rate mechanism.  Diamonds 
account for roughly three-quarters of Botswana's exports, 
almost half of government revenues, and about one-third of 
GDP.  AGOA eligibility has helped to diversify exports, 
particularly into textiles.  Last year, Botswana exported 
$67.3 million to the U.S. and imported $178 million.  AGOA 
covered $30.1 million of exports to the U.S., up fifty 
percent from 2004.  The Mission continues to work with the 
government and private sector to identify new strategies 
for expanding the non-mining sectors of Botswana's economy 
through regional and international trade. 
 
¶5.  Botswana's democratic institutions and credible 
economic policies have made it eligible to transfer up to 
$7.4 million in debt owed the U.S. to local NGO 
conservation activities through the Tropical Forest 
Conservation Act.  This will only happen, however, if the 
government signs an agreement with the U.S. this fiscal 
year.  TFCA has the potential to transform local NGO 
involvement in the environmental sector. 
 
HIV/AIDS: BOTSWANA'S BIGGEST THREAT 
 
¶6. UNAIDS estimates that more than 330,000 Batswana out of 
a population of 1.7 million are now living with HIV/AIDS; 
many are not aware of their status.  In 2005, the infection 
rate among pregnant women aged 15-49 was 33.4 percent, down 
from 37.4 percent in 2003.  Officially, some 18 percent of 
all deaths in the country are due to AIDS, although the 
actual percentage is probably much higher.  The nation's 
growing orphan population, largely attributable to AIDS, 
is estimated at 112,000, but some predict that it could 
rise to as high as 214,000 by 2010. 
 
 
GABORONE 00000453  002 OF 003 
 
 
¶7. Through the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief 
(EP), the USG provided $20 million in 2004, $48 million in 
2005 and $55 million in 2006 for prevention, treatment and 
care programs, managed largely by the State Department and 
CDC (USAID's involvement in the EP in Botswana has been 
muted because of the lack of a bilateral program).  In 
partnership with the Government of Botswana, the EP has 
made an impact.  Over 60,000 people are now on 
anti-retroviral treatment (up from 10,000 in 2003), which 
is likely about half the people in the nation requiring 
such treatment.  Programs for prevention of mother to child 
transmission have brought infant infection to virtually 
zero.  Over 230,000 Batswana have been tested (some more 
than once) since the inception of USG-funded "Tebelopele" 
voluntary counseling and testing centers.  Eight of the 
sixteen "Tebelopele" sites were constructed using DoD 
Humanitarian Assistance funds managed by the Office of 
Defense Cooperation; five more are in the works.  The Peace 
Corps program, which encompasses fifty-eight volunteers, 
focuses exclusively on combating HIV/AIDS. 
 
¶8. President Mogae has called HIV/AIDS "the greatest 
challenge Botswana has faced," and has spearheaded a 
multi-sectoral strategy including prevention, care and 
treatment programs.  A key component of the strategy is the 
free public anti-retroviral treatment program, the first of 
its kind and scale in the world. Botswana also introduced 
routine testing for HIV/AIDS at government health 
facilities.  Happily, some indicators suggest that the 
epidemic's rate of growth may be declining. As noted 
previously, the prevalence rate among pregnant women 15 
to 49 dropped 4 percent from 2003 to 2005. The drop is 
higher among younger women -- more good news.  There also 
has been a decrease in rates of sexually transmitted 
diseases and some evidence of a decline in risky sexual 
behavior. 
 
¶9. Botswana's private/public partners in its overall 
efforts to combat HIV/AIDS include, in addition to the U.S. 
Government, Baylor University, Harvard University, the 
University of Pennsylvania, Catholic Relief Services, 
Bristol Myers Squibb, the Bill and Melinda Gates 
Foundation, the Merck Foundation and a number of United 
Nations agencies and non-governmental organizations. 
 
SAN/CKGR CONTROVERSY TARNISHES GOOD IMAGE 
 
¶10. An international controversy that has erupted over the 
GOB's treatment of the San ethnic minorities threatens to 
tarnish Botswana's strong record of respect for human 
rights.  Beginning in the mid 1980s, the government 
encouraged residents of the Central Kalahari Game Reserve 
to relocate to villages outside the park and offered them 
compensation to move.  After several rounds of compensated 
moves, the government cut off public services within the 
CKGR, including access to water in January 2002, 
effectively coercing the last hangers on to relocate. 
Those San and other minorities who felt forced to move took 
the government to court, challenging the constitutionality 
of the relocation.  U.K.-based NGO Survival International 
(SI) is funding their case and waging a public relations 
battle against Botswana by depicting its diamonds as 
"conflict diamonds."  Although the government recently gave 
indications that it was willing to pursue a mutually 
agreeable solution through dialog, President Mogae's recent 
vocal refusals to "capitulate" to SI's demands have thrown 
these prospects into doubt.  The Mission is reaching out to 
DeBeers, the government and NGOs to try to facilitate a 
solution to this damaging row. 
 
BOTSWANA TO RETURN TO PEACEKEEPING 
 
¶11. Botswana boasts one of the most professional and 
capable militaries on the continent.  During the last 
fourteen years, the Botswana Defense Force has participated 
in three major peacekeeping operations (PKOs), Somalia 
1992-1994, Mozambique 1993-1995, and Lesotho 1998-2000. 
Since the Lesotho operation, Botswana has not sent troops 
to participate in any large scale PKO, although it does 
have military observers deployed to Eritrea and Sudan.  In 
November 2005, however, Botswana agreed to help airlift a 
contingent of peacekeepers to Sudan.  (The BDF has three 
C-130 aircraft obtained through the DOD Excess Property 
program, which are commonly thought to be the best 
maintained of their kind in Africa.)  The government agreed 
to participate in the airlift with the following two 
stipulations: the US military lead the operation and the 
government receive reimbursement for the expenses of the 
operation.  Through EUCOM's military-to-military contact 
program, BDF officers have been afforded the opportunity to 
observe a USAF transport operation in Rwanda and an 
 
GABORONE 00000453  003 OF 003 
 
 
additional training/assessment event is scheduled for 
April 16-21 to further assist the BDF prepare for an 
August/September mission to Sudan. 
 
RE-ENGAGING SADC 
 
¶12. In 2003, SADC decided it could no longer sign 
agreements with USAID because of U.S. government policy and 
legal restrictions concerning Zimbabwe.  Since that time, 
USAID has supported SADC technical working groups and 
independent units, such as the SADC Parliamentary Forum, 
within the relevant legal parameters.  In August 2005, the 
SADC Heads of State appointed Tomaz Salomao the new 
Executive Secretary of the SADC Secretariat.  In addition, 
the secretariat underwent a near-total personnel turnover 
in 2005.  While this further stalled implementation of 
SADC's various agreements, the new leadership at SADC is 
willing to open up opportunities for the U.S. to re-engage 
with SADC within our set policy and legal bounds.  In his 
meetings with the Ambassador, Dr. Salomao has expressed his 
desire to reestablish closer working relations with the 
U.S. (reftel). 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶13. In addition to familiarizing yourself with Botswana and 
the many facets of our Mission, your visit will provide an 
opportunity to reinforce a few key messages:  We applaud 
Botswana's strong record on good governance.  We are able 
and eager to expand our partnership, such as our important 
HIV/AIDS mission and new important environmental 
initiatives such as the Tropical Forest Conservation Act. 
We are glad that Botswana is preparing to provide air 
support to the Sudan PKO and believe that, given its highly 
professional military, this is an important role for 
Botswana to fulfill.  In order to maintain a positive 
international image, the government should expedite a 
resolution to the CKGR controversy.  We hope that creative 
thinking on both sides will enable U.S. and SADC to 
re-invigorate our partnership in keeping with the 
limitations we have due to the crisis in Zimbabwe. 
CANAVAN