This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS WARSAW 000177 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PL
SUBJECT: POLISH GOVERNING PARTY SIGNS COOPERATION ACCORD 
WITH PROTEST PARTIES, EARLY ELECTIONS SEEN LESS LIKELY 
 
REF: WARSAW 134 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Poland's governing Law and Justice (PiS) 
party concluded a "stabilization pact" February 2 with 
opposition protest parties Self-Defense (SO) and the League 
of Polish Families (LPR), committing the parties to cooperate 
on a detailed legislative agenda but stopping short of a 
formal coalition (or, apparently, SO and LPR representation 
in government). PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski declared the 
"political crisis over," indicating that the need for early 
elections had been avoided.  Kaczynski's twin brother, 
President Lech Kaczynski, had yet to state as of early 
February 3 whether he had made a decision on new elections 
(he has eleven days remaining to decide), but his staff 
welcomed news of the political pact and suggested that 
elections are now less likely.  PiS may have concluded, based 
on recent polls, that re-running elections would not yield it 
a majority and that an alliance with SO and LPR provides the 
best chance in the short term for implementing its reform 
agenda. End summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Playing on LPR's and SO's fears that they would fail 
to win enough support to meet the parliamentary threshold if 
new elections were held, Jaroslaw Kaczynski masterminded the 
"stabilization pact" as a kind of coalition on the cheap. 
The extreme right-wing LPR and populist SO will not formally 
join the government, but they have agreed to support 156 
separate legislative priorities proposed by PiS, notably 
items key to their domestic agenda, including creation of an 
anti-corruption office, creation of a truth and justice 
commission and wider property lustration (public accounting 
of assets by a broader group of government officials). They 
also agreed to not criticize the government, or to support 
any no-confidence vote against PM Marcinkiewicz or anyone in 
his cabinet.  The pact is supposed to last for twelve months, 
and, according to PiS leading negotiator Przemyslaw 
Gosiewski, is open to other parties, particularly the Polish 
Peasants' Party (PSL), which was involved earlier in 
negotiating with PiS.  PiS also continues efforts to peel 
away members of the principal opposition party, Civic 
Platform (PO), but the likelihood of a full-fledged PO-PiS 
coalition (the preference of many in both parties) is now 
extremely remote. 
 
¶3. (SBU) PO's Jan Rokita sharply condemned the PiS-LPR-SO 
stabilization pact as bad for Poland, and predicted that PiS 
would have trouble governing with unreliable "schemers" such 
as LPR's Roman Giertych and SO leader Andrzej Lepper.  For 
their part, Giertych and Lepper were enthusiastic about the 
accord; Giertych declared that the pact marks the beginning 
of the "Fourth Republic" in Poland (an appellation signifying 
for the Polish right a wholesale transformation -- and 
decommunization -- of the state).  PiS and its new partners 
created a minor stir at the signing itself by granting 
exclusive coverage of the event to right-wing Catholic new 
media (previously supporters of LPR, now aggressively courted 
by PiS).  Mainstream media boycotted a news conference 
afterwards in protest. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Comment: The threat of new elections has eased, but 
cannot be dismissed entirely -- not given the volatile 
political scene of recent weeks.  We understand from senior 
PiS officials that the party leadership was nearly evenly 
split on whether to back the pact or seek new elections. 
Recent polls have shown PO maintaining a close second place 
to PiS, which -- together with smaller parties just 
surpassing the five-percent threshold -- would deny PiS the 
absolute majority it craves.  Under those circumstances, 
Jaroslaw Kaczynski has admitted, it would make no sense to 
hold new elections only to return to the same relative 
position.  However, LPR's and SO's reliability as partners 
(especially once the president's window of opportunity to 
call elections passes) has to be a concern for PiS, even as 
Kaczynski may be looking at this arrangement as an 
opportunity to hold these parties close and displace them 
completely with their electorates. 
ASHE