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RHMFISS/COMUSJAPAN YOKOTA AB JA
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 000698 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2031 
TAGS: PREL PGOV CH JA
SUBJECT: FM ASO CHINA COMMENTS: ADVERTISEMENTS FOR HIMSELF? 
 
 
TOKYO 00000698  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Joe Donovan.  Reasons:1.4(b/d). 
 
¶1.  (C)  Summary:  Our contacts among Japan's China watchers 
believe FM Aso's recent provocative comments on Japan-China 
relations are a calculated effort by the Foreign Minister to 
boost his standing in the race for the LDP presidency. 
Without making such controversial statements, Aso would have 
little opportunity to attract attention to himself, they 
maintain.  According to leading Diet members and academics, 
given CCS Abe's strong lead in the public opinion polls, Aso 
is probably trying to win PM Koizumi's personal support in 
the election campaign by making strong statements on the 
controversial Yasukuni Shrine issue.  Our interlocutors note 
that Aso's nationalistic comments are well received by the 
LDP's increasingly conservative supporters.  End Summary. 
 
Provocative Statements 
---------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C)  Over the past several weeks FM Aso has made a number 
of controversial statements connected to Japan's relations 
with China that have provoked negative responses from 
Beijing.  On December 22 Aso stated that China was a "threat" 
to Japan due to its growing military capability.  He followed 
that statement with a comment on January 29 that no foreign 
country should tell the Prime Minister he cannot go to 
Yasukuni Shrine, and that it would be advisable for the 
Emperor also to visit the shrine.  On February 4 Aso said 
that as a Japanese colony Taiwan benefited from an improved 
educational system.  MOFA's China Division has denied to the 
Embassy that such comments reflect any change in Japan's 
policy toward China.  Moreover, in a January 31 position 
paper the cabinet declared that Japan does not recognize 
China as a threat.  Chief Cabinet Secretary Abe was also 
quick to clarify to the press that the Foreign Minister's 
comment about the Emperor visiting Yasukuni Shrine was Aso's 
personal view. 
 
Need to Attract Public Attention ... 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶3.  (C)  Our contacts on Japan-China relations uniformly 
attribute FM Aso's comments to his desire to improve his 
standing in the race to succeed PM Koizumi as LDP president 
when he steps down in September.  LDP members among the 
general public as well as LDP Diet members will participate 
in the party's presidential election.  Keio University 
Professor Tomoyuki Kojima observed to Embassy Tokyo political 
officer that since PM Koizumi consistently states that 
China's economic development is an opportunity for Japan, not 
a threat, and since previous foreign ministers have been very 
cautious in making statements concerning relations with 
China, Aso's statements only make sense in the context of the 
LDP presidential campaign.  Such statements, Kojima said, 
help Aso stand out from the other candidates, providing a 
clear-cut difference between him and his rivals. 
 
¶4.  (C)  Tokyo University Professor Akihiko Tanaka commented 
to the embassy that such statements are entirely in keeping 
with Aso's personality.  He enjoys making provocative and 
unexpected statements, Tanaka maintained, and has frequently 
done so during his career as a Diet member.  Tanaka believes 
the series of controversial statements must be part of Aso's 
calculation as to what is needed to make him an important 
figure in the race to succeed Koizumi, especially given CCS 
Abe's commanding lead in the public opinion polls.  If Aso 
merely does a good, competent job as foreign minister, Tanaka 
opined, Aso will be forgotten by the public.  He has a strong 
incentive to attract public attention, Tanaka stated. 
 
And the Prime Minister's Support 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C)  LDP Diet Member Taro Kono told us that FM Aso might 
be trying to win PM Koizumi's support for the LDP presidency 
race by taking a strong anti-China stance, especially on 
Yasukuni.  Given CCS Abe's strong popularity, it would be 
difficult for Aso to succeed Koizumi without the Prime 
Minister's explicit backing, Kono said.  Supporting the Prime 
Minister on visits to Yasukuni may be one way to curry favor, 
 
TOKYO 00000698  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
he suggested.  Kono said he was particularly surprised by 
Aso's comments regarding the Emperor visiting Yasukuni in 
that he and eight others dined with the Foreign Minister the 
night before Aso's statement.  At the dinner, Aso told his 
dinner companions that he should give greater consideration 
to his position as Foreign Minister in making comments that 
concern Japan's relations with China.  His statement on the 
Emperor the next day can only be explained by the LDP 
presidential campaign, Kono surmised. 
 
¶6.  (C)  In a separate meeting with Embassy political 
officer, LDP Diet member and former LDP Secretary General 
Koichi Kato agreed that Aso's comments are due to the LDP 
race, noting that Aso's statements lack balance and are far 
from the official government position on the issues. 
Nonetheless, Kato observed, Aso's statements have found wide 
support among traditional LDP supporters.  The LDP membership 
is becoming increasingly conservative and nationalistic, 
especially with regard to China, he said.  Kato averred that 
the majority of LDP voters are anti-China.  Aso's comments 
justifying Japan's colonialization of Taiwan would be 
particularly pleasing to LDP supporters, he said.  Kato also 
thought that Aso was trying to win the Prime Minister's 
support in the LDP race, but opined that even with Koizumi's 
backing, Aso would not be elected. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7.  (C)  Of all the contenders, Aso has been the most vocal 
in publicly stating his desire to become the next prime 
minister.  However, at 20 to 30 points behind CCS Abe in the 
polls, Aso may feel he has to do something to shake up the 
race.  While his statements on the Japan-China relationship 
have not followed the usual practice of Japanese foreign 
ministers, they have garnered him a lot of media attention. 
For his part Abe has been cautious and moderate in his public 
comments, sticking to his role as the government's chief 
spokesman and letting his reputation as a nationalist 
hard-liner speak for itself. 
SCHIEFFER