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DE RUEHSN #0504/01 0592101
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 282101Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY SAN SALVADOR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1189
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000504 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2016 
TAGS: ES PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: EL SALVADOR:  SAN SALVADOR MAYOR OPINES ON 
UPCOMING ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A. 2005 SAN SALVADOR 843 
 
     ¶B. 2005 SAN SALVADOR 3259 
     ¶C. SAN SALVADOR 210 
     ¶D. SAN SALVADOR 458 
 
Classified By: DCM Michael A. Butler, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C)  During a February 24 informal lunch at the DCM's 
residence, incumbent San Salvador Mayor Carlos Rivas Zamora, 
accompanied by his wife Silvia, talked with DCM and poloff 
about upcoming elections and other subjects.  He began by 
outlining his recent visit to the United States, during which 
he participated in a congressional prayer breakfast in 
Washington attended by President Bush.  He marvelled at 
American political figures' ability to maintain civility and 
common cause in the face of political differences, and 
lamented El Salvador's highly-polarized political environment 
in which such bipartisan cooperation would be unthinkable. 
 
¶2. (C)  Rivas Zamora spoke frankly about the process whereby 
the orthodox-hardliner leadership of the Farabundo Marti 
National Liberation Front (FMLN) had marginalized him (see 
reftel A), and finally made inevitable his resignation from 
the party.  Secretive FMLN strongman Jose Luis Merino, an 
extremist even among the party's orthodox faction (see reftel 
B), had during 2005 imparted to Rivas Zamora that the Mayor's 
moderate, reformist political views were inconsistent with 
the larger national message the FMLN wished to convey, and 
that the best Merino could offer under the circumstances 
would be appointment to the Central American Parliament 
(PARLACEN), with the assurance that Rivas Zamora would be 
contacted if his services were ever required in the future. 
Faced with what amounted to political exile, Rivas Zamora 
departed the FMLN following the party's July 17, 2005 
"primaries" in which he was not allowed to participate, and 
in which Schafik Handal ally Violeta Menjivar was hand-picked 
by "consensus" to run in Rivas Zamora's place.  (Note:  Rivas 
Zamora will seek reelection as the candidate of a loose 
center-left coalition of the party newly-formed by FMLN 
defectors during 2005, the Revolutionary Democratic Front 
(FDR), the Democratic Change (CD--formerly CDU), and the 
National Liberation Party (PNL).  End note.) 
 
¶3. (C)  Turning to the subject of nationwide municipal and 
Legislative Assembly elections scheduled for March 12, Rivas 
Zamora opined that his own mayoral candidacy will be 
handicapped by the Salvadoran electoral practice of ballots 
bearing only party symbols, rather than candidates' names 
and/or photos, and that many ill-informed and 
marginally-literate voters will likely mark the FMLN box in 
the mistaken belief that they are voting for him (rather than 
Violeta Menjivar).  He complained that the FDR-CD-PNL 
coalition had declined to offer his own campaign and FDR 
party a higher profile, telling him that he might be in the 
driver's seat, but that they were "the vehicle".  He 
expressed his view that longtime FMLN leader Schafik Handal, 
who died unexpectedly on January 24 from a massive heart 
attack (see reftel C), might prove more useful to the FMLN in 
death than in life, by providing a rallying point as fallen 
hero.  When asked about the post-election fate of the FMLN's 
few remaining moderates such as Legislative Assembly Deputy 
Hugo Martinez and Santa Tecla Mayor Oscar Ortiz, he 
questioned whether the two had truly ever belonged among the 
ranks of moderates, implying that the root of their troubles 
with the FMLN's hardliner leadership more likely lay simply 
in personality conflicts with Schafik Handal.  He estimated 
that the FDR-CD-PDC coaltion might pick up 3 to 4 of the 25 
Legislative Assembly seats up for grabs March 12 in San 
Salvador, plus perhaps one each in two other departments. 
Without openly admitting defeat, the Mayor seemed resigned to 
the fact that he will not be numbered among those celebrating 
victory after March 12.  (Note:  Most polls show the San 
Salvador mayoral race in a virtual dead heat between the 
FMLN's Menjivar and ARENA candidate Rodrigo Samayoa, with 
Rivas Zamora far behind at little more than 5 percent support 
among voters; see reftel D.  End note.) 
 
¶4. (C)  The Mayor touched briefly on CAFTA, which El Salvador 
will be first to implement with the U.S. on March 1, 
commenting that violent anti-CAFTA demonstrations 
orchestrated by the FMLN leadership are being carried out by 
unwitting activists with little understanding of the benefits 
free trade might entail for the country.  With an eye toward 
his retirement from political life--perhaps sooner rather 
than later--the Mayor continued to advocate for his vision of 
a foundation and nongovernmental organization that would seek 
to educate emerging civic leadership, expand 
political-electoral literacy, and assist in the maturation of 
Salvadoran civil society and continued consolidation of its 
democratic institutions.  (Note:  Ambassador Barclay, DCM, 
and poloff met with Rivas Zamora during 2005 to hear the 
 
Mayor outline his proposed foundation, and recommended to 
Rivas Zamora that perhaps he should first seek the 
partnership of reputable academic institutions in El Salvador 
and abroad.  End note.)  In conversing about the future of 
any such organization, the Mayor surprised DCM and poloff by 
handing off the discussion to his wife Silvia, a shy younger 
woman--and the Mayor's second wife--who has heretofore been 
content to remain quietly away from the public spotlight. 
Silvia de Rivas Zamora went on to discuss the Mayor's 
proposed foundation articulately and thoughtfully, and she 
will clearly play a central role in its operation should his 
plan reach fruition. 
 
¶5. (C)  COMMENT:  Mayor Rivas Zamora let slip at least one 
clue that he may not be quite as ready to withdraw from 
political life as most observers believe.  In commenting on 
plans to name his proposed foundation and NGO after himself, 
he said that it would "help maintain his name recognition 
until 2009"--a clear indication that he would eagerly accept 
an offer by El Salvador's loose center-left coalition to run 
for president in 2009.  END COMMENT. 
Barclay