This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 001272

SIPDIS

NSC STAFF FOR SINGH
FOR NEA, H

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2016
TAGS: OREP PREL PGOV EG KDEM
SUBJECT: EGYPT: CODEL BERMAN MEETINGS WITH EGYPTIAN OFFICIALS

Classified by Ambassador Francis Ricciardone for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

¶1. (C) Summary. In a lengthy meeting with visiting Rep. Berman on February 20, Mubarak emphasized that Egypt does not trust Hamas but will work with the organization´s leadership in order to moderate its positions. Mubarak counseled strongly against a rapid withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq and dismissed criticism of the GOE´s handling of the Ayman Nour case. Only half joking, Mubarak told Rep. Berman that Egypt´s relations with Israel are better today than Egypt´s relations with the U.S. Separately, Gameela Ismail, wife of political opposition leader Ayman Nour, thanked Rep. Berman for Congress´ ongoing interest in her husband´s case. Foreign Minister Aboul Gheit agreed that Iran´s nuclear program posed serious concerns, but cautioned the U.S. against resorting to military action against Iran. Information Minister Al Fikki told Rep. Berman that getting Al Manar off the air would require negotiation with ArabSat, the Saudi government, the Arab League, and possibly Lebanon. End summary.

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Mubarak on Regional Issues

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¶2. (C) During his February 18-23 visit to Egypt, Representative Howard Berman met with President Mubarak, Foreign Minister Aboul Gheit, Parliament Speaker Fathi Surour, and Information Minister Al Fikki. Much of the 90-minute meeting with Mubarak was spent discussing Hamas´ election victory and how Israel and the donor community should respond. Citing a long history of radical Islamist assassination attempts against Egyptian officials, Mubarak stressed that Hamas cannot be trusted. Nonetheless, the GOE would continue to meet with Hamas leaders "to keep them in line" and to encourage them to work with Abu Mazen. Mubarak said Egypt will only press for continued donor support to the Palestinian Authority if Hamas agrees to cooperate with Abu Mazen.

¶3. (C) While blaming lack of Israeli support for Abu Mazen for Hamas´ success in the elections, Mubarak said that Egypt´s relations with Israel were very good. Only half joking, Mubarak said, "we have better relations with Israel right now than with the U.S." He reminded Rep. Berman that he had publicly told the Palestinians that, if they could not do a deal with Sharon, they could not do a deal with anyone. "Sharon was tough, but could be convinced," Mubarak said. On Iraq, Mubarak said the U.S. is faced with two equally unpalatable choices - pulling out or staying the course. He urged Congress not to press for a premature withdrawal of U.S. troops. Mubarak shared U.S. concern about the possibility of Iran producing nuclear weapons, but said the proper response was a regional nuclear-free zone. He cautioned strongly against any military solution to the Iran nuclear situation. He likewise cautioned against using force against Bashar Asad: "Better to have a weak Bashar in power than two coups a year or a Muslim Brotherhood takeover."

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Mubarak on Ayman Nour

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¶4. (C) Mubarak responded defensively and predictably to questions about jailed opposition politician Ayman Nour. As in past discussions, Mubarak claimed to have once supported Nour, but Nour "started saying unbelievable things." Mubarak claimed that Americans are "uninformed" of the facts of the case, that Nour´s trial was entirely apolitical, and that he (Mubarak) is powerless to interfere with the legal system. At one point, Mubarak grew more emotional and accused the USG of funding Nour. Pressed by Rep. Berman, Mubarak declined to elaborate, saying only that "you were financing him, but he is not a man you should support."

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Foreign Minister Aboul Gheit on Iraq, Iran, and Al Manar

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¶5. (C) Aboul Gheit told Rep. Berman that the only way to succeed in Iraq is by remaining in place for another 50 years. The USG´s mistake, Aboul Gheit said, was in trying to change a country that is not homogeneous and in failing to understand the Arab Muslim mentality. He warned that it is important to know the "end game" before acting, and accused the U.S. of not considering what or who would follow Saddam´s rule. Now there are "mullahs and sheikhs" running the country, Aboul Gheit said. He added that the GOE would try to support a new Iraqi government, but noted that the security situation would make it difficult to send Egyptians to Iraq. 

¶6. (C) Aboul Gheit and Rep. Berman agreed that the Iranian nuclear program posed a grave risk. Aboul Gheit said pressure must be maintained, but the U.S. must not resort to military action or the impact on the U.S. economy will be devastating. Aboul Gheit urged the U.S. to support the Russian proposal and also asked about Al Baradei´s recent suggestion that Iranian research could possibly be allowed to continue. The goal, Aboul Gheit said, should be to scale down the level of arms in the region. He said there is no doubt that a nuclear Iran will lead others in the region to follow the same path. When Rep. Berman distinguished between Iran and Israel, Aboul Gheit said there is no difference, but agreed that it is counterproductive to complicate the Iran discussion by linking it to Israel. Any solution would have to allow Iran and the West to save face, Aboul Gheit predicted.

¶7. (C) Turning to Al Manar, Rep. Berman asked Aboul Gheit to raise the subject with the Information Minister and Aboul Gheit directed his staff to do so.

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Minister of Information Al Fikki

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¶8. (C) Rep. Berman discussed with Minister of Information Al Fikki broadcasting rights and privatization, future regulatory changes, election irregularities, Al Manar and NileSat. The Minister said he wanted to privatize most of the broadcasting rights to Egyptian television and radio stations and retain a minimal number of stations for government use. To support this, he proposed a financial restructuring plan and regulatory changes. Rep. Berman asked about election irregularities that were reported in the West and the difference in the reporting by Egyptian media. Al Fikki explained that the Ministry decided to limit reporting in order not to influence young voters.

¶9. (C) Rep. Berman requested Minister Al Fikki,s support in getting Al Manar off the air because the station incites violence and glorifies suicide bombings. Al Fikki responded that although Egypt is a shareholder in NileSat, it does not retain a controlling interest and cannot make a unilateral decision to remove Al Manar. He said that this must be coordinated with ArabSat, the Saudi government, the Arab League and perhaps the Government of Lebanon. Al Fikki also said that it would not be a financial burden in any sense to remove Al Manar because there are stations waiting to replace it. Al Fikki said he needs U.S. Embassy support in gaining the agreement of the involved parties as well as finding adequate justification. He also offered to use his personal relationship with NileSat to cancel Al Manar and said he has been watching closely to determine if Al Manar has broken any laws. Minister Al Fikki pointed out that his new broadcasting regulations would allow greater latitude to cancel this sort of programming based on discrimination. He then suggested that the USG review its strategy of using Al Hurra as the linchpin for outreach. In its stead, Al Fikki suggested that the USG consider the EU model of collaborating on programming with the GOE rather than using a single channel.

¶10. (C) Al Fikki said that the Egyptian media now leads public opinion and takes every opportunity to promote the relationship between the GOE and USG as a "strategic friendship." He also said the Egyptian media covers the news in the region without trying to inflame sentiments.

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Gameela Ismail

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¶11. (SBU) Rep. Berman discussed Washington´s interest in promoting political pluralism in the Arab world during his February 19 call on Gameela Ismail, wife of imprisoned opposition leader Ayman Nour. The Congressman noted that Nour´s case had attracted considerable interest and concern in the Congress about Egypt´s commitment to democracy. In the U.S. view, the Egyptian Government should be encouraging secular opposition parties and fostering their development rather than jailing their leaders. Congressman Berman told Ismail that he planned to raise the Nour case with President Mubarak during his meeting the following morning. Ismail thanked the Congressman for the concern and interest he and other members of Congress have shown in her husband´s case. She noted that Nour´s defense team had just filed their appeal before the Court of Cassation and asserted that, as a matter of law, her husband should now be freed on bail. Ismail added that she was planning to travel to Washington in early March, under the auspices of an IRI program for Arab women political/civil society leaders. Rep. Berman encouraged her to be in touch with his office and other members of Congress during her stay in Washington.

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Parliament Speaker

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¶12. (SBU) During his February 20 meeting with Fathy Surour, Speaker of the People´s Assembly, Rep. Berman sought an assessment of current and future legislation pertaining to political reform. Recalling the tumult of 2005, which saw a constitutional amendment which allowed for competitive presidential elections for the first time, Surour outlined for Congressman Berman the complex process of legislative debate and public consultation required to amend the constitution. Congressman Berman asked about the possibility of rescinding Egypt´s emergency law, which has been in force for 24 years and is due to expire later this spring. Surour confirmed the GOE´s intent to replace the emergency law with a modern anti-terror law, but opined that implementing such a law would have to be prefaced by a further amendment of the constitution. The constitution, as it stands, would be incompatible with an effective anti-terror law. Recognizing Egypt´s commitment to combat terror, Rep. Berman urged Egypt to find a formula to balance its legitimate security needs against human rights and democratic imperatives.

¶13. (U) The Congressman cleared this message.

RICCIARDONE