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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HELSINKI 000063 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL FI
SUBJECT: FINLAND'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: SUDDENLY, IT'S A 
RACE 
 
REF: A. HELSINKI 16 
 
     ¶B. 05 HELSINKI 1296 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Incumbent Tarja Halonen made an 
impressive showing in the first round of Finland's 
presidential election, besting her nearest rival, 
Conservative Sauli Niinisto, by more than 21 
percentage points.  However, Halonen was unable to 
secure a first round victory and, for the first time 
in the campaign, she and the SDP may have reason to be 
concerned.  The two-candidate race has quickly 
tightened into a far closer contest than any pundit or 
pre-election poll had predicted, as PM/Center Party 
Candidate Matti Vanhanen - - who finished a 
disappointing third with only 18 percent of the first 
round vote - - announced he would support Niinisto. 
This effort to rally "non-socialist support" may be 
bearing fruit, as current surveys give Halonen 53 
percent and Niinisto 47, and has caused consternation 
among the SDP and its allies on the left.  However a 
fifth of voters remain undecided.  Even though the 
winner will not be determined until Jan. 29, pundits 
have listed Vanhanen among the bigger "losers" 
following the first round.  Meanwhile, Niinisto and 
the Conservatives have already been dubbed "winners," 
simply by dint of forcing a second round.  And should 
Niinisto pull off an upset -- which we, like most 
Finnish analysts, still view as unlikely -- the once- 
heavily favored Halonen and her SDP will clearly be 
viewed as the biggest losers.  End Summary. 
 
Suddenly, It's a Race 
--------------------- 
¶2. (SBU) The wind chill in Helsinki dipped below -40 
degrees in the week following the first round of 
Finland's presidential election but, for the first 
time during this winter campaign, incumbent Tarja 
Halonen of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) may have 
broken a sweat.  Her showing on Jan. 15 was 
impressive, to be sure:  Halonen netted 46 percent of 
the vote, easily outdistancing her nearest rival, 
Conservative Party (CONS) candidate Sauli Niinisto, 
who took 24 percent.  Center Party (CEN) candidate and 
current Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen won 18 percent, 
followed by the Green Party's Heidi Hautala (3.4%); 
the True Finn Party's Timo Soini (3.3%); and three 
others who won less than 1.5% each.  Halonen's 
supporters within the SDP note that a 46 percent 
first-round showing is among the highest in Finnish 
history, and that even a six point lead going into 
round two is quite high.  One SDP strategist told us 
that women and voters on the left still overwhelmingly 
favor Halonen, and he suggested that both the 
narrowing of her lead and the very fact of a second 
round will energize her base -- some of whom may have 
stayed at home during round one -- to get out and 
vote.  Others have suggested that the SDP 
"enthusiasts" (see reftel) who eagerly pushed for a 
first round win were never realistic, and that the 
machinery remains in place to ensure success in the 
second round. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Still, the enthusiasts and even Halonen 
herself found it difficult to hide their 
disappointment at being forced to face a run-off 
against Niinisto.  Overall turnout was only 73 
percent, the lowest since Finns began electing their 
president directly.  To compound Halonen's 
disappointment, Finland-Gallup quickly offered further 
reasons for apprehension.  Its first poll following 
the first round, released on January 17, showed 53 
percent voting for Halonen in the second round and 47 
percent for Niinisto.  Before the first round, polls 
asking voters whom they would support in a 
hypothetical runoff between Niinisto and Halonen had 
indicated that the President would win better than 60 
percent of the vote in an one-on-one contest. 
However, the recent narrowing appears to reflect that 
Niinisto's significant surge in momentum before the 
election has continued. 
 
¶4. (SBU) According to one SDP analyst, the turnout 
factor not only spelled the difference in preventing 
Halonen's first round win, but also may have reflected 
a bit of a failure in terms of the party's own efforts 
to get out the vote.  It also contributed to a 
surprising surge by Niinisto in the final days, he 
noted.  Meanwhile, Halonen supporters from non-SDP 
parties were less circumspect.  The party chair of the 
Left Alliance -- which supported Halonen from the 
beginning and ran no candidate of its own -- placed 
blame for the run-off squarely on the SDP, asserting 
that it had run a lethargic campaign and failed to 
attract the "cross-over" voters needed for a first 
round victory.  On the other hand, she said, her 
party's voters had done their share to support 
Halonen. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Despite the concern and disappointment, 
nearly all our SDP contacts still predicted that 
Halonen would withstand the challenge and win. 
Indeed, most hold that, barring a major gaffe by 
Halonen, the President should win handily.  However, 
an increasing number also fear that Halonen's failure 
to win a knock-out in the first round offers two 
dangers.  Aside from leaving the door open to an 
albeit unlikely Niinisto upset, it also offers the 
"bourgeois" parties (CEN and CONS) two weeks to test 
their ability to cooperate -- something that could 
result in stronger "anti-socialist" campaigns down the 
road.  Several of our contacts on the left have made 
no attempt to hide their concern about the March 2007 
parliamentary elections, in which many say the 
emboldened bourgeois parties may be able to portray 
the left as vulnerable. 
 
Vanhanen Breaks with Halonen 
---------------------------- 
¶6. (SBU) A significant reason for Niinisto's surge -- 
and for Halonen's concern -- was the prompt 
announcement by CEN candidate Matti Vanhanen that he 
would support Niinisto.  The speed and verve of 
Vanhanen's move -- a huge boon for Niinisto -- came as 
a surprise to many.  First, as Prime Minister, 
Vanhanen has made his close cooperation and excellent 
personal relationship with Halonen a point of pride, 
even though many suggested it hurt him during the 
presidential campaign.  Second, the two "bourgeois" 
parties (CEN and CONS) historically have had a 
difficult time cooperating during elections, prompting 
one of Vanhanen's own advisors to express surprise at 
the PM's early and forceful endorsement of Niinisto. 
She and others have suggested that Niinisto -- despite 
winning Vanhanen's vote -- will still have to court 
skeptical CEN voters actively if he hopes to defeat 
Halonen, but that process may already be bearing 
fruit:  the same Jan. 18 Finland Gallup poll showed 80 
percent of self-identified Vanhanen voters lining up 
behind Niinisto. 
 
¶7. (SBU) That said, Vanhanen clearly brings far fewer 
voters with him than he would have hoped.  In fact, 
many pundits are portraying Vanhanen as the big loser 
so far.  The day after the election two of Vanhanen's 
key advisors told poloff that the results were very 
disappointing, although not a surprise.  The PM's 
internal polling had indicated for at least two weeks 
that a more distant than hoped for third-place showing 
was likely.  Vanhanen did what he had to do during the 
election and conducted his campaign with a courtesy 
and respect for Halonen that most Finns admired.  He 
may have lost votes to Niinisto because of this, they 
said, but he also showed that he could shelve his ego 
for the good of the country and his party.  The 
advisors opined that the electorate would remember 
Vanhanen's respectful campaign and his good 
cooperation with Halonen and reward him and the Center 
Party during next year's general election.  However, 
many others have suggested that Vanhanen and CEN both 
now face a rough road, and that even the PM's position 
as party chairman could be weakened unless he 
orchestrates a reconsolidation, cabinet reshuffle, or 
some other internal shake-up. 
 
Niinisto: Already a Winner, Even if he Loses 
-------------------------------------------- 
¶8. (SBU) While some are calling Vanhanen an early 
loser, many have already called Niinisto a de facto 
winner regardless of whether or not he upsets Halonen 
in Round Two.  The fact that he not only made it to 
the second round but also quickly narrowed the gap 
between himself and the incumbent attest to both his 
party's strong campaign and his own personal charisma. 
Niinisto's campaign attracted praise from other 
parties from the beginning, and the CONS youth 
organization, in particular, devised innovative ways 
to reach out to young, left-leaning Finns.  Indeed, 
his advisors sought to run a high-tech campaign 
replete with messages considered controversial or even 
aggressive by Finnish standards -- but which always 
attracted significant attention.  One poll noted that 
Niinisto's campaign attracted a more "negative 
response" from voters than any other, to which one of 
his strategists responded, "Negative response is still 
response." 
 
¶9. (SBU)  Comment: Niinisto's impressive efforts 
notwithstanding, any analysis of the first round 
should put one thing in perspective first:  Tarja 
Halonen won by an impressive margin and received more 
votes than Niinisto and Vanhanen combined.  She won 
the majority of votes in several provinces that 
traditionally are Center Party bastions, and barring 
the unexpected, should win the second-round.  That 
said, her numbers--  just over 46% of the total-- were 
in the low end of what even the SDP's more frugal 
strategists expected.  Meanwhile, Vanhanen's quick 
endorsement of Niinisto may be the most intriguing 
element of the entire campaign and may prove to have 
the most long-term impact.  Should Halonen win, the 
PM's close and effective working relationship with her 
-- which has paid dividends for his Government and for 
the Center Party's reputation -- will most certainly 
be strained.  However, it may indeed foreshadow the 
emergence down the road of enhanced "bourgeois" 
cooperation -- something that CONS and CEN have always 
dreamed of but never achieved.  Their history of non- 
cooperation is long and difficult, even though many in 
the business-friendly wing of Vanhanen's Center Party 
would prefer the Conservatives as a junior coalition 
partner over the SDP.  In any case, we still view a 
Niinisto win as unlikely, despite CEN's support. 
However, should he pull off the upset, both the SDP 
and Halonen would clearly become the election's 
biggest losers, both in round two and perhaps further 
down the road as well. 
HYATT