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Diana T Fritz  06/05/2007 10:35:32 AM  From  DB/Inbox:  Search Results

Cable 
Text:                                                                      
                                                                           
      
SECRET

SIPDIS
TELEGRAM                                        February 08, 2003


To:       No Action Addressee                                    

Action:   Unknown                                                

From:     AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI (ABU DHABI 676 - PRIORITY)         

TAGS:     PREL                                                   

Captions: None                                                   

Subject:  UAEG WELCOMES SECRETARY'S PRESENTATION           BUT   
          PUBLIC REACTION MIXED; DERISIVE           RITTER SOUNDS
           OFF IN ABU DHABI                                      

Ref:      None                                                   
_________________________________________________________________
S E C R E T        ABU DHABI 00676

SIPDIS
CXABU:
    ACTION: POL 
    INFO:   DCM ECON P/M RSO AMB 

DISSEMINATION: POL
CHARGE: PROG

APPROVED: CDA:TEWILLIAMS
DRAFTED: POL:STWILLIAMS
CLEARED: POL:MMENARD

VZCZCADI740
PP RUEHC RUEHDE RUCNRAQ RHEHNSC RUEAIIA
DE RUEHAD #0676/01 0391344
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 081344Z FEB 03
FM AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI
INFO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8309
RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI 2784
RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABU DHABI 000676 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/NGA, SA/PAB AND NEA/ARP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2013 
TAGS: PREL UN IZ TC
SUBJECT:  UAEG WELCOMES SECRETARY'S PRESENTATION 
          BUT PUBLIC REACTION MIXED; DERISIVE 
          RITTER SOUNDS OFF IN ABU DHABI 
 
REF:  Abu Dhabi 629 
 
¶1. (U) Classified by Charge d'Affaires Thomas 
Williams for reasons 1.5 (B) and (D). 
 
UAEG PRIVATELY SUPPORTIVE 
------------------------- 
 
¶2. (S) Initial UAEG reaction to the Secretary's presentation 
has been very encouraging. UAE Information Minister Shaykh 
Abdullah Bin Zayid Al-Nahyan, who was in London on a private 
visit, contacted the Ambassador in the U.S. to note that the 
facts presented were "credible and convincing."  The 
Secretary's inclusion of Saddam's human rights abuses at the 
 
SIPDIS 
end "completed the package."  Abdullah advised the USG to 
flood the Arabic media in order to underscore the 
Secretary's message.  He said the UAEG intended to release a 
 
SIPDIS 
public statement supportive of the presentation (see below). 
We separately received positive feedback from Chief of Staff 
Shaykh Muhammad Bin Zayid Al-Nahyan (via his Amcit military 
advisor who conveyed points to NEA/ARP Director and 
Polchief).  MbZ (the UAE's de facto Defense Minister) 
thought the speech was very powerful and depicted the real 
picture of the Iraqi regime.  He wished that the Secretary 
had not made a connection between Saddam and Palestinian 
"terrorism" and underlined his oft-mentioned concerns that 
the optics of any potential conflict will be key in keeping 
a lid on popular Arab anger. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
SEMI-GOVERNMENTAL PAPER TAKES STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE 
EDITORIAL STANCE.... 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶3. (SBU) The semi-governmental Abu Dhabi-based Arabic 
language daily "Al-Ittihad" (widely viewed as the UAEG's 
mouthpiece) on 2/6 issued a strongly supportive editorial, 
placing the onus entirely on Saddam (reftel).  Noting that 
the Secretary had made a very tight case, "Al-Ittihad" 
commented that the presentation highlighted the very real 
limitations of the inspections' process, particularly in a 
country in which the regime has made an "art of survival." 
As the editorial put it, "The American submission, supported 
by images, phone intercepts, and detailed charts, left no 
room for extending the inspectors' mission and put extensive 
pressure on the Security Council to take urgent action to 
implement the serious consequences which the UNSC warned of 
if 1441 was violated."  (Note:  In our view, this editorial 
may well be the promised UAEG statement.  Shaykh Abdullah is 
chairman of the board of the "Al-Ittihad" parent company 
Emirates' Media International and, in that capacity, is able 
to exercise considerable editorial authority.  End Note.) 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
...IN STARK CONTRAST TO OTHER, VERY NEGATIVE, REACTIONS 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶4. (U) The "Al-Ittihad" stance was not reflected in the 
editorial pages of the UAE's other papers.  The 2/7 English- 
language "Gulf News" editorial, titled "Powell found 
wanting," charged that the Secretary's "swish" presentation 
had "all of the hallmarks of Hollywood and Steven Spielberg. 
But this was one spiel that did not travel well, probably 
little further than the doors of the Pentagon, the White 
House and 10 Downing Street."  The editorial cast doubt on 
the credibility of the satellite photographs and telephone 
intercepts and noted that "it beggars belief that Iraq, 
known to have sophisticated intelligence systems themselves 
(sic), would not be conscious of the fact that all 
electronically transmitted messages would be liable to 
interception."  The "Gulf News" editorial line was mirrored 
by the Sharjah-based Arabic daily "Al-Khaleej," which has 
traditionally taken a very critical, anti-American stance. 
 
¶5. (U) Although he did not comment on the Secretary's 
presentation itself, longtime Mission contact and Dubai 
corporate leader Khalaf Al-Habtoor, in a 2/7 "Gulf News" op- 
ed, registered concern over what he described as the USG's 
post 9/11 spurning of multilateralism and embrace of the 
"first strike option."  In Al-Habtoor's view, the mere 
threat of U.S. military action will be enough to force a 
regime change in Iraq. 
 
--------------------- 
MIXED PUBLIC REACTION 
--------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) While many of our interlocutors were critical of 
the presentation and used it as an opportunity to vent on 
U.S. policy towards the Middle East peace process, others 
took a more nuanced view.  Several expatriates and Emiratis 
-- convinced that war is inevitable -- were alarmed by the 
mostly negative international reaction.  In their view, the 
risks of inaction now solidly outweigh the risks of action. 
Our Iraqi expatriate interlocutors have been the most vocal, 
expressing irritation at the reaction of their fellow Arabs 
and advising us to just ignore the naysayers and get on with 
the job. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
SCOTT RITTER SOUNDS OFF AT THE ARAB LEAGUE'S ZAYID CENTER 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶7. (U) Former UNSCOM inspector Scott Ritter found a largely 
receptive audience during a 2/8 lecture at the Zayid Center 
for Coordination and Follow-Up, an Arab League "research 
center" funded by UAE Deputy Prime Minister Shaykh Sultan 
Bin Zayid Al-Nahyan.  Sultan attended the lecture, in a rare 
public appearance.  Addressing the diplomatic and press 
corps, Ritter predictably derided the Secretary's "smoke and 
mirrors" presentation, noting that the U.S., bent on regime 
change, is determined to undermine the inspections' process. 
Ritter posited that as long as the U.S. focus is on regime 
change, the international community must remain suspicious 
of U.S. policy and all Americans assigned to inspection 
teams in Iraq should be considered intelligence agents.  He 
described U.S. Iraq policy as being part of a grander design 
aimed at regional transformation and took issue with what he 
characterized as our unilateralist approach.  Ritter 
predicted a popular Iraqi uprising against a U.S. occupation 
of Iraq, coupled with broader instability in the region 
which could result in the downfall of some Arab governments. 
Ritter's apocalyptic vision, and particularly his brash 
statements on the likely reaction of Iraqis led one Iraqi 
expat, a long-term resident here, to comment skeptically and 
rather indignantly to poloff in an aside "just who does 
Ritter think he is to speak for Iraqis" 
 
WILLIAMS