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Reference ID	Created	Released	Classification	Origin
01HARARE114	2001-01-08 16:03	2011-08-30 01:44	CONFIDENTIAL	Embassy Harare

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

081603Z Jan 01


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ1849

PAGE 01        HARARE  00114  01 OF 03  081603Z 
ACTION AF-00    

INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00  
      SRPP-00  DS-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     
      TEDE-00  INR-00   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01   
      OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    
      SSO-00   STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02   
      G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /006W
                  ------------------B39B53  081603Z /38    
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7958
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000114 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/01 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00114  01 OF 03  081603Z 
TAGS: PGOV PINR ZI
SUBJECT: REJUVENATION OF ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY UNLIKELY 
TO CARRY IT THROUGH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 
 
REFS: A) HARARE 7266, B) HARARE 7134, C) HARARE 6658 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL IRVING FOR REASONS: 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY: ZIMBABWE'S RULING ZANU-PF HAS 
REENERGIZED ITSELF AND WRESTED SOME OF THE POLITICAL 
MOMENTUM FROM THE OPPOSITION MDC, BUT IT FACES AN UPHILL 
BATTLE IN MAINTAINING ITS MOMENTUM THROUGH THE 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN EARLY 2002.  ZANU-PF'S VICTORY 
IN THE MARONDERA WEST BY-ELECTION, THE LAYING TO REST OF 
RUMORS OF MUGABE'S RETIREMENT AT THE DECEMBER PARTY 
CONGRESS, AND A NEW, YOUNGER POLITBURO HAVE BREATHED NEW 
LIFE INTO A PARTY THAT RECENTLY APPEARED HEADED FOR THE 
SCRAPHEAP.  THE PARTY'S NEWFOUND SENSE OF PURPOSE, 
HOWEVER, HAS NOT TRANSLATED INTO GREATER SUPPORT AMONG 
EVERYDAY ZIMBABWEANS.  THERE ARE SERIOUS QUESTIONS ABOUT 
THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE RULING PARTY'S TACTICS, AND 
PRESIDENT MUGABE'S ABILITY TO WIN NEXT YEAR'S ELECTION 
IS STILL VERY MUCH IN DOUBT.  END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------- 
A REJUVENATED ZANU-PF 
--------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) ALTHOUGH ZANU-PF'S LEVEL OF POPULAR SUPPORT HAS 
NOT INCREASED IN THE LAST FEW MONTHS, RECENT EVENTS HAVE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00114  01 OF 03  081603Z 
HELPED TO REENERGIZE PARTY FOLLOWERS, WHO, UNTIL 
RECENTLY, SEEMED READY TO JUMP SHIP.  ZANU-PF HELD ON TO 
ITS MARONDERA WEST PARLIAMENTARY SEAT IN THE NOVEMBER 
BY-ELECTION, ALBEIT ONLY AFTER WEEKS OF VIOLENT 
INTIMIDATION OF THE LOCAL ELECTORATE (REF C).  IN A WAY, 
THE BY-ELECTION VALIDATED THE PARTY'S TACTICS, AND IT 
SENT A MESSAGE TO THE PARTY LEADERSHIP THAT IT DOES HAVE 
THE MEANS TO STAY IN POWER.  A LOSS IN A TRADITIONAL 
MASHONALAND STRONGHOLD WOULD HAVE BEEN DISASTROUS. 
 
¶3.  (C) DECEMBER'S ZANU-PF CONGRESS HELPED TO RALLY THE 
PARTY FAITHFUL AROUND MUGABE'S LAND REFORM AGENDA AND 
CONVINCE THEM THAT ZANU-PF STILL HAS A FUTURE (REF B). 
MUGABE'S EMPHASIS ON THE FAST-TRACK LAND RESETTLEMENT 
PROGRAM AND HIS OBVIOUS DESIRE TO KEEP ZANU-PF IN POWER 
GAVE HARD-CORE PARTY MEMBERS A NEW SENSE OF PURPOSE. 
THE CONGRESS ALSO DISPELLED THE CONFUSION AND 
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MUGABE'S INTENTION TO STAY AT THE 
COUNTRY'S HELM--HE IS HERE TO STAY AND WILL BE THE 
PARTY'S CANDIDATE FOR THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. 
THE APPOINTMENT OF A NEW, YOUNGER POLITBURO (REF A) WAS 
A REBUKE OF THE PARTY'S OLD GUARD, ACCORDING TO IDEN 
WETHERELL, EDITOR OF THE "ZIMBABWE INDEPENDENT."  NOT 
ONLY DID IT INFUSE NEW (BUT LOYAL) BLOOD INTO THE PARTY 
LEADERSHIP, IT SIDELINED THE OLD GUARD THAT HAD FAILED 
TO WIN THE HEARTS AND MINDS OF THE PEOPLE, WETHERELL 
BELIEVES.  THE LIKES OF 36-YEAR-OLD YOUTH DEVELOPMENT 
MINISTER BORDER GEZI AND INFORMATION MINISTER JONATHAN 
MOYO DEFINITELY HAVE MORE ENERGY AND ENTHUSIASM TO PUSH 
THE PARTY'S AGENDA AND COW THE MDC. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00114  01 OF 03  081603Z 
--------------------------- 
MUGABE IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL 
--------------------------- 
 
¶4.  EDDISON ZVOBGO, THE FORMER MINISTER WHO WAS 
UNCEREMONIOUSLY DUMPED FROM THE POLITBURO (BUT IS STILL 
A CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEMBER, AS WELL AS AN MP), TOLD US 
THAT MUGABE IS MORE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF ZANU-PF THAN HE 
HAS EVER BEEN.  THE PARTY NO LONGER ACTS AS A CHECK ON 
THE PRESIDENT'S POWERS, ZVOBGO CONTINUED.  INSTEAD, THE 
PARTY IS SIMPLY AN INSTRUMENT OF THE PRESIDENT.  DURING 
THE 1980S, THE POLITBURO WAS KNOWN TO OVERRULE MUGABE ON 
POLICY MATTERS, BUT NOW MUGABE IS A "MAJORITY OF ONE" IN 
THE PARTY.  ANYONE WHO WANTS TO SURVIVE MUST TRY TO 
PLEASE THE PRESIDENT BY SAYING WHAT HE THINKS MUGABE 
WANTS TO HEAR, ACCORDING TO ZVOBGO.  THE FORMER MINISTER 
DESCRIBED THIS REALITY AS "PATHETIC." 
 
¶5.  ACCORDING TO WETHERELL, MUGABE HAS ALWAYS BEEN IN 
CHARGE OF ZANU-PF, AND HE SIMPLY WON'T ALLOW ANYONE TO 
USURP HIS POWER.  THE SO-CALLED "YOUNG TURKS"--NEWER, 
REFORM-MINDED MEMBERS OF THE PARTY--ARE AS UNHAPPY AS 
EVER, BUT JUST AS POWERLESS AS BEFORE.  MUGABE IS IN 
GREATER CONTROL OF THE PARTY BECAUSE, SAYS WETHERELL, 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ1851 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00114  02 OF 03  081603Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00 
      SRPP-00  DS-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01 
      TEDE-00  INR-00   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01 
      OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00 
      SSO-00   STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02 
      G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /006W 
                  ------------------B39B6D  081604Z /38 
O 081603Z JAN 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7959 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 000114 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/01 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00114  02 OF 03  081603Z 
TAGS: PGOV PINR ZI
SUBJECT: REJUVENATION OF ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY UNLIKELY 
TO CARRY IT THROUGH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 
 
EVERY NEWCOMER TO THE POLITBURO IS A PRODUCT OF MUGABE'S 
PATRONAGE MACHINE, AND NONE HAVE AN INDEPENDENT POWER 
BASE.  FINANCE MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI, SOMETIMES TOUTED 
AS A POTENTIAL SUCCESSOR TO MUGABE, HAS BEEN WEAKENED-- 
PARADOXICALLY--BY HIS APPOINTMENT TO THE POLITBURO 
BECAUSE NOW HE IS COMPLETELY BEHOLDEN TO THE PRESIDENT 
FOR HIS POSITION IN THE PARTY, WETHERELL STATED.  AS FOR 
SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA, MUGABE BROUGHT 
HIM BACK FROM POLITICAL OBLIVION TO SILENCE THE 
OPPOSITION IN PARLIAMENT AND TO DEAL WITH MALCONTENTS IN 
ZANU-PF.  THE TWO NEED EACH OTHER, WETHERELL ASSERTED. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AN UPHILL BATTLE FOR MUGABE 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶6.  (C) DESPITE ZANU-PF'S APPARENT REVITALIZATION, 
MUGABE FACES AN UPHILL BATTLE TO WIN A THIRD 
PRESIDENTIAL TERM IN NEXT YEAR'S ELECTION.  IN FACT, OUR 
CONTACTS SAY THERE IS "NO WAY" HE CAN WIN.  ZVOBGO TOLD 
US THAT THE LEVEL OF VIOLENCE REQUIRED TO COW THE ENTIRE 
ELECTORATE WOULD BE "UNACCEPTABLE," AND MUGABE CLEARLY 
CANNOT RUN ON HIS RECORD GIVEN THE NEAR COLLAPSE OF THE 
ECONOMY.  BECAUSE THE PRESIDENTIAL VOTE IS A STRAIGHT 
NATIONAL HEAD COUNT WITH NO RUN-OFFS (AS OPPOSED TO A 
FIRST-PAST-THE-POST VOTE IN A DISTRICT-BY-DISTRICT 
SYSTEM), TSVANGIRAI ONLY NEEDS ONE MORE VOTE THAN MUGABE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00114  02 OF 03  081603Z 
TO BEAT HIM.  THE URBAN AREAS, MATABELELAND AND 
MANICALAND WILL GO SOLIDLY TO THE MDC, AND MIDLANDS WILL 
BE SPLIT 50-50, ZVOBGO SAYS.  MASHONALAND WILL STILL 
VOTE LARGELY FOR ZANU-PF, ZVOBGO CONTENDS, LEAVING 
MASVINGO AS SOMETHING OF A WILD CARD.  HOWEVER, BY HIS 
CALCULATION, A LARGE, PRO-MDC TURNOUT IN URBAN AREAS 
WILL WIN THE DAY OVER LOW TURNOUTS IN THE TRADITIONAL 
ZANU-PF RURAL AREAS.  THE SMART MOVE FOR MUGABE, ZVOBGO 
SAID, WOULD BE TO RESIGN IN OCTOBER THIS YEAR AND CALL A 
SNAP ELECTION BEFORE THE ONSET OF THE RAINS.  IF THE 
ELECTION WERE HELD ON SCHEDULE, I.E. SHORTLY BEFORE 
MUGABE'S TERM ENDS ON MARCH 31, 2002, MUGABE COULD BE 
EVEN MORE UNPOPULAR IF HEAVY RAINS WIPED OUT A LOT OF 
ROADS AND BRIDGES, AS THEY DID IN EARLY 2000, AND THE 
GOVERNMENT DIDN'T HAVE THE MEANS TO RESPOND.  THE MOVE 
WOULD ALSO SURPRISE THE OPPOSITION AND GIVE THEM LESS 
TIME TO PREPARE FOR THE ELECTION.  ZVOBGO EVEN PROPOSED 
THIS PLAN TO MUGABE, BUT THE PRESIDENT REJECTED IT OUT 
OF HAND, HE SAID. 
 
¶7.  (C) WETHERELL WAS IN AGREEMENT THAT NO LEVEL OF 
VIOLENCE CAN WIN THE ELECTION FOR MUGABE.  THE PARTY 
CAN'T RESORT TO WIDESPREAD RIGGING, EITHER, BECAUSE THE 
ELECTION WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED BY INTERNATIONAL 
OBSERVERS.  THE URBAN AREAS, MATABELELAND AND MANICALAND 
STRONGLY BACK THE MDC, WHILE MASHONALAND BACKS ZANU-PF. 
THAT LEAVES MIDLANDS AND MASVINGO PROVINCES AS KEY 
BATTLEGROUNDS, THE EDITOR STATED.  MUGABE WILL "GO FOR 
BROKE" IN THESE AREAS AND MASHONALAND TO WIN THE 
ELECTION.  WETHERELL DID NOT HAVE ANY FIRM PREDICTIONS 
ON WHAT THE MILITARY MIGHT DO, BUT HE DID NOT THINK IT 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00114  02 OF 03  081603Z 
WOULD "DO ANYTHING STUPID" TO KEEP MUGABE IN POWER. 
 
------------------------------- 
NOT ENOUGH YES MEN TO GO AROUND 
------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) COMMENT: A BUNCH OF ROOTLESS "YES MEN" NOW 
COMPRISE THE LEADERSHIP OF ZANU-PF.  THEY NEED MUGABE 
MORE THAN EVER FOR THEIR LIVELIHOOD, AND HE NEEDS THEM 
TO RUN THE DAY-TO-DAY BUSINESS OF THE STATE, MOBILIZE 
THE MASSES, AND PROVIDE SUPPORT AFTER SETBACKS.  MUGABE 
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN GUARANTOR OF ZANU-PF'S EXISTENCE, 
ESPECIALLY IN THESE TIMES OF CRISIS.  THE VIABILITY OF 
THE PARTY, AS CURRENTLY STRUCTURED, IS NOT GUARANTEED IN 
A POST-MUGABE ERA.  MNANGAGWA APPEARS TO HAVE ENGINEERED 
THE PROMOTION OF A NUMBER OF YOUNGER PARTY MEMBERS TO 
ENSURE THAT THEY WOULD BE PERSONALLY LOYAL TO HIM IN A 
POST-MUGABE SCENARIO. 
 
¶9.  (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: DESPITE ZANU-PF'S INTERNAL 
REJUVENATION AND RENEWED SENSE OF PURPOSE, IT IS STILL A 
WIDELY UNPOPULAR PARTY AMONG ZIMBABWEANS AS A WHOLE. 
THE NUMBER OF HARD-CORE ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS--THOSE LIKELY 
BENEFITING DIRECTLY FROM ZANU-PF RULE--HAS SHRUNK TO 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ1852 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00114  03 OF 03  081604Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00 
      SRPP-00  DS-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01 
      TEDE-00  INR-00   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01 
      OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00 
      SSO-00   STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02 
      G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /006W 
                  ------------------B39B73  081604Z /38 
O 081603Z JAN 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7960 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 000114 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/01 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00114  03 OF 03  081604Z 
TAGS: PGOV PINR ZI
SUBJECT: REJUVENATION OF ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY UNLIKELY 
TO CARRY IT THROUGH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 
 
FEWER THAN 15 PERCENT OF THE POPULATION, ACCORDING TO 
THE SOUTH AFRICA-BASED HELEN SUZMAN FOUNDATION.  DESPITE 
OUR CONTACTS' ASSERTION THAT MUGABE ESSENTIALLY HAS NO 
CHANCE OF WINNING IN 2002, MUGABE IS STILL A MASTERFUL 
POLITICAL MANIPULATOR.  HE HAS BEEN WRITTEN OFF 
COUNTLESS TIMES BEFORE, ONLY TO COME BACK MORE FIRMLY IN 
CONTROL THAN EVER.  NONETHELESS, OVER THE NEXT YEAR, 
MUGABE AND ZANU-PF WILL FACE THEIR STRONGEST CHALLENGE 
AS THEY ATTEMPT TO HOLD ONTO POWER.  IT IS DIFFICULT TO 
IMAGINE ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMY TURNING AROUND IN THE NEXT 
YEAR TO THE EXTENT NECESSARY FOR ZANU-PF TO WIN TRUE 
PUBLIC SUPPORT.  ITS TACTIC OF SENDING IN THE SHOCK 
TROOPS TO BEAT OPPOSITION SYMPATHIZERS INTO SUBMISSION 
MAY WIN A FEW BY-ELECTIONS IN THE SHORT-TERM, BUT IS 
UNLIKELY TO WIN THE HEARTS AND MINDS OF THE PEOPLE IN 
THE LONG-TERM.  END COMMENT. 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
>

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Viewing cable 01HARARE114, REJUVENATION OF ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY UNLIKELY