This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

281349Z Dec 00


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ7689

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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7901
INFO NSC WASHDC
USDOC WASHDC
DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
USDA FAS WASHDC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 007271 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GSMITH 
USDOC FOR 4510/EHENDERSON 
TREASURY FOR OASIA/EBARBER, BHOFFMAN 
 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
PRETORIA FOR RHELM 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  07271  01 OF 03  281349Z 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA, 
NNEWMAN, AA/AFR 
 
USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL 12/28/10 
TAGS: EAGR EAID ZI
SUBJECT: SIZEABLE SHORTFALL IN MAIZE PRODUCTION IN 2001 
LOOMS AS A REAL POSSIBILITY FOR ZIMBABWE 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D' AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR 
REASONS 1.5 (B/D). 
 
REFS: A. HARARE 6190, B. HARARE 6662 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: THE LATEST MAIZE SEED SALES DATA 
 
INDICATE THAT NATIONAL MAIZE PLANTING IS DOWN 25 PERCENT 
FROM NORMAL LEVELS.  THE ZIMBABWE GRAIN PRODUCERS 
ASSOCIATION (ZPGA), REPRESENTING LARGE SCALE COMMERCIAL 
MAIZE PRODUCERS, PUBLISHED A STATEMENT ON DECEMBER 20 
APPEALING FOR ITS MEMBERS TO PLANT MORE MAIZE BEFORE THE 
END OF THE MONTH.  SMALL-SCALE MAIZE PRODUCERS AND 
COMMUNAL FARMERS MAY PLANT MORE MAIZE BEFORE THE END OF 
DECEMBER, BUT THEY ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY AFFORDING THE 
INPUTS NEEDED BECAUSE OF THE SHARP RISE IN THE PRICES OF 
SEED, FERTILIZER, OTHER CHEMICALS, AND DIESEL, COMBINED 
WITH THE FAILURE OF THE PARASTATAL GRAIN MARKETING BOARD 
(GMB) TO PAY THESE FARMERS FOR THE 2000 HARVEST. 
FORECASTS FOR NORMAL TO ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  07271  01 OF 03  281349Z 
PRINCIPAL MAIZE GROWING REGIONS IN ZIMBABWE MAY HELP TO 
OFFSET THE PLANTING SHORTFALL BY INCREASING YIELDS.  THE 
GMB CLAIMS TO HAVE 600,000 METRIC TONS OF MAIZE IN ITS 
STRATEGIC GRAIN RESERVE, WHICH, IF ACCURATE, SHOULD 
COVER THE PREDICTED SHORTFALL OF MAIZE IN THE 2001 
HARVEST.  ZIMBABWE ALSO FACES A LARGER THAN NORMAL 
SHORTFALL IN WHEAT, NECESSITATING INCREASED WHEAT 
IMPORTS AT A TIME WHEN THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ) 
HAS NO FOREIGN CURRENCY TO PURCHASE SUCH IMPORTS.  THE 
REAL CRUNCH IN THE MAIZE SUPPLY MAY COME IN THE 2001/02 
SEASON.  PLANTING OF MAIZE FOR SEED IS ONLY 38 PERCENT 
OF LAST YEAR'S TOTAL.  IF THE GOZ FOLLOWS THROUGH ON ITS 
"FAST-TRACK" RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM, REPLACING THE 2673 
COMMERCIAL FARMS THAT HAVE BEEN GAZETTED FOR COMPULSORY 
ACQUISITION WITH THOUSANDS OF ILL-EQUIPPED SMALL-SCALE 
FARMERS, ZIMBABWE'S FOOD SECURITY IS LIKELY TO SUFFER. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
THE ZPGA MAKES A PLEA TO FARMERS TO PLANT MAIZE 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶2. (SBU) ON DECEMBER 20 THE CHAIRMAN OF THE ZIMBABWE 
GRAIN PRODUCERS ASSOCIATION (ZGPA), ANDREW MEIKLE, 
RELEASED A STATEMENT TO THE PRESS URGING LARGE SCALE 
MAIZE GROWERS TO MAXIMIZE THE HECTARAGE PLANTED WITH 
MAIZE BEFORE THE SEASON ENDS ON DECEMBER 31.  THE 
CHAIRMAN STATED THAT HE WAS TAKING THE ACTION FOR TWO 
REASONS: FIRST, BECAUSE THE CURRENT CROP WILL NOT MEET 
ZIMBABWE'S MAIZE NEEDS AND WILL LEAD TO A HIGHER PRICE 
FOR MAIZE, AND SECOND, TO COUNTER A ZIMBABWE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  07271  01 OF 03  281349Z 
BROADCASTING CORPORATION (ZBC) TELEVISION STORY THAT 
STATED THAT COMMERCIAL FARMERS WERE SWITCHING FROM MAIZE 
TO OTHER CROPS AS A PLOT (NOT STATED, BUT IMPLIED, TO 
CAUSE A SHORTFALL IN THE NEXT MAIZE HARVEST THAT WOULD 
BE BLAMED ON THE GOZ'S LAND REFORM PROGRAM.)  THE 
CHAIRMAN WENT ON TO STATE THAT THE LARGE SCALE 
COMMERCIAL MAIZE PRODUCER HAS ALWAYS FELT A MORAL 
RESPONSIBILITY FOR FOOD SECURITY IN ZIMBABWE, AND THE 
REAL REASONS THAT MAIZE HECTARAGE WAS DOWN ON COMMERCIAL 
FARMS WAS DUE TO THE ON-GOING LAND INVASIONS AND WORK 
STOPPAGES, THE LACK OF PROFITABILITY OF MAIZE AS A CROP, 
AND THE INABILITY OF MANY COMMERCIAL GROWERS TO OBTAIN 
FINANCING FROM BANKS DUE TO THE GOZ "FAST-TRACK" LAND 
REFORM PROGRAM AND COMPULSORY ACQUISITION. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
STRATEGIC GRAIN RESERVE SHOULD COVER MAIZE SHORTFALL 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶3. (U) ECONOFF SPOKE WITH VARIOUS PLAYERS IN THE MAIZE 
INDUSTRY IN ZIMBABWE TO GET BACKGROUND ON THE MAIZE 
SUPPLY AND HARVEST PREDICTIONS FOR ZIMBABWE.  THESE 
INCLUDED VANESSA MCKAY, PRINCIPAL ADMINISTRATOR OF THE 
ZIMBABWE GRAIN PRODUCERS ASSOCIATION (ZGPA), RICHARD 
AMYOT, DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF COMMODITIES FOR THE COMMERCIAL 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTO7277 
 
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R 281349Z DEC 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7902 
INFO NSC WASHDC 
USDOC WASHDC 
DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC 
USDA FAS WASHDC 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 007271 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GSMITH 
USDOC FOR 4510/EHENDERSON 
TREASURY FOR OASIA/EBARBER, BHOFFMAN 
 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
PRETORIA FOR RHELM 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  07271  02 OF 03  281350Z 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA, 
NNEWMAN, AA/AFR 
 
USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL 12/28/10 
TAGS: EAGR EAID ZI
 
SUBJECT: SIZEABLE SHORTFALL IN MAIZE PRODUCTION IN 2001 
LOOMS AS A REAL POSSIBILITY FOR ZIMBABWE 
 
FARMERS UNION (CFU), IAN GOGGIN OF THE ZIMBABWE 
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY EXCHANGE (ZIMACE), AND ELLIOT 
VHURUMUKU, COUNTRY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ZIMBABWE FAMINE 
EARLY WARNING SYSTEM NETWORK.  EFFORTS TO SPEAK WITH 
OFFICIALS AT THE PARASTATAL GRAIN MARKETING BOARD (GMB) 
AND THE MINISTRY OF LANDS, AGRICULTURE AND RURAL 
RESETTLEMENT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL.  ALL CONTACTS AGREED 
THAT IF THE GMB REPORT OF 600,000 METRIC TONS OF MAIZE 
IN THE STRATEGIC GRAIN RESERVE IS ACCURATE, ZIMBABWE 
SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT MAIZE RESERVES TO GET IT THROUGH 
TO THE APRIL HARVEST.  ZIMBABWE CONSUMES ABOUT 1,800,000 
METRIC TONS OF MAIZE PER YEAR, AND THIS YEAR'S MAIZE 
CROP ESTIMATE BASED ON SEED SALES IS FOR 1,200,000 
METRIC TONS, LEAVING THE GMB STRATEGIC GRAIN RESERVE TO 
COVER THE SHORTFALL. 
 
-------------------------------- 
THE REAL CRUNCH MAY COME IN 2002 
-------------------------------- 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  07271  02 OF 03  281350Z 
¶4. (SBU) ALL THE CONTACTS AGREED THAT THE REAL SHORTFALL 
IN MAIZE PRODUCTION, AND CONSEQUENT THREAT TO ZIMBABWE'S 
FOOD SECURITY, WILL OCCUR DURING THE 2001/2002 SEASON IF 
THINGS STAY THE SAME IN ZIMBABWE.  THIS IS FOR VARIOUS 
REASONS.  IF THE GOZ FOLLOWS THROUGH ON THE COMPULSORY 
ACQUISITION OF THE COMMERCIAL FARMS THAT ARE LARGE-SCALE 
MAIZE PRODUCERS, THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT THE COUNTRY'S 
MAIZE PRODUCTION WILL SEE A SHARP DECREASE.  IN THE 
JUST-ENDED HARVEST SEASON, LARGE-SCALE MAIZE PRODUCERS 
PRODUCED 850,000 METRIC TONS OF MAIZE ON JUST 162,000 
HECTARES, WHILE THE SMALL-SCALE AND COMMUNAL FARMERS 
PRODUCED 1,100,000 METRIC TONS, BUT ON 1,100,000 
HECTARES.  EVEN IF THE GOZ INSTRUCTED ALL RESETTLED 
PEOPLE TO GROW MAIZE AND PROVIDED THEM WITH NEEDED CROP 
INPUTS, A VIRTUAL IMPOSSIBILITY GIVEN THE GOZ'S 
BUDGETARY CONSTRAINTS AND PAST TRACK RECORD, IT IS 
EXTREMELY DOUBTFUL THAT THESE NEWLY RESETTLED FARMERS 
WOULD BE ABLE TO REPLACE THE MAIZE PRODUCTION LOST FROM 
THE LARGE-SCALE COMMERCIAL PRODUCERS. 
 
¶5. (U) ANOTHER FACTOR IN THIS SCENARIO IS THE RISING 
COST OF INPUTS NEEDED FOR MAIZE PRODUCTION.  IN 
PARTICULAR, FERTILIZER AND DIESEL FUEL COSTS HAVE 
INCREASED DRAMATICALLY THIS YEAR, AND WILL LIKELY 
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SINCE BOTH PRODUCTS ARE IMPORTED. 
THE SMALL-SCALE AND COMMUNAL FARMERS HAVE BEEN 
STRUGGLING TO GET THE MONEY TO PLANT FOR THIS MAIZE 
SEASON, AND THE SITUATION WILL LIKELY BE WORSE NEXT 
YEAR.  THE GOZ HAS SET A PRELIMINARY MARKET PRICE OF 
5,500 ZIMBABWE DOLLARS FOR A METRIC TON OF MAIZE, WHILE 
THE ZPGA ESTIMATES THAT IT CURRENTLY COSTS ITS MEMBERS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  07271  02 OF 03  281350Z 
7,000 ZIMBABWE DOLLARS TO PRODUCE A METRIC TON.  WHILE 
SMALL-SCALE AND COMMUNAL FARMERS' COSTS ARE LOWER THAN 
THAT OF LARGE-SCALE PRODUCERS; THEIR FINANCIAL VIABILITY 
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE AT CURRENT GOZ DETERMINED MAIZE 
PRICES. 
 
¶6. (U) LASTLY, SEED MAIZE PLANTINGS ARE REPORTED BY THE 
ZPGA TO BE ONLY 38 PERCENT OF THE HECTARAGE PLANTED LAST 
YEAR.  THIS IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO BOTH THE FARM 
INVASIONS, BECAUSE SEED MAIZE CROPS ARE HIGHLY 
SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE DUE TO CROSS-FERTILIZATION WITH 
REGULAR MAIZE PLANTED BY FARM OCCUPIERS, AS WELL AS THE 
CURRENTLY POOR FINANCIAL VIABILITY IN ZIMBABWE OF MAIZE 
AS A CROP.  BECAUSE THIS SEED MAIZE HAS BEEN SPECIALLY 
ADAPTED TO THE GROWING CONDITIONS IN ZIMBABWE, IT CANNOT 
BE IMPORTED FROM MANY PLACES OTHER THAN SOUTH AFRICA AND 
MALAWI, COUNTRIES TO WHICH ZIMBABWE HISTORICALLY HAS 
EXPORTED SEED MAIZE. 
 
¶7. (C) ALL OF THESE FACTORS LEAD THE EXPERTS TO CONCLUDE 
THAT IF THE GOZ CONTINUES FULL-STEAM AHEAD WITH THE 
"FAST-TRACK" COMPULSORY ACQUISITION OF LARGE-SCALE MAIZE 
PRODUCING COMMERCIAL FARMS; AND RESETTLES THESE FARMS 
WITHOUT PROVIDING FOR NEEDED CROP INPUTS, NOT TO MENTION 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ7693 
 
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R 281349Z DEC 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7903 
INFO NSC WASHDC 
USDOC WASHDC 
DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC 
USDA FAS WASHDC 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 007271 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GSMITH 
USDOC FOR 4510/EHENDERSON 
TREASURY FOR OASIA/EBARBER, BHOFFMAN 
 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
PRETORIA FOR RHELM 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  07271  03 OF 03  281350Z 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA, 
NNEWMAN, AA/AFR 
 
USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL 12/28/10 
TAGS: EAGR EAID ZI
 
SUBJECT: SIZEABLE SHORTFALL IN MAIZE PRODUCTION IN 2001 
LOOMS AS A REAL POSSIBILITY FOR ZIMBABWE 
 
THE MINIMAL INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDED FOR SUCCESSFUL 
FARMING, THERE WILL BE A DRAMATIC REDUCTION IN THE SIZE 
OF THE 2001/2002 MAIZE HARVEST.  PAST GOZ EFFORTS AT 
PROVIDING SUPPORT TO RESETTLED FARMERS INDICATE THAT ANY 
ASSISTANCE PROVIDED WILL BE MINIMAL.  THIS REALITY IS 
COMPOUNDED BY THE SEVERE BUDGET CONSTRAINTS CURRENTLY 
FACED BY THE GOZ.  ZIMBABWE WILL THUS BE FACING A 
POTENTIALLY MAJOR REDUCTION IN THE SIZE OF ITS 2001/2002 
MAIZE CROP AT THE SAME TIME THAT ITS STRATEGIC GRAIN 
RESERVE WILL HAVE BEEN DEPLETED AND THE GOZ WILL LACK 
HARD CURRENCY TO PURCHASE MAIZE ON THE INTERNATIONAL 
MARKET.  THESE FACTORS ALL COMBINE TO RAISE THE CONCERN 
OF THE EXPERTS THAT WHILE ZIMBABWE'S FOOD SECURITY 
SITUATION IS SATISFACTORY RIGHT NOW, A YEAR FROM NOW THE 
COUNTRY COULD BE FACING A SITUATION OF FOOD INSECURITY. 
OUR SOURCES ALL CLAIM THAT IF THE PREDICTED RAINFALL FOR 
ZIMBABWE THIS SEASON DOES NOT MATERIALIZE, OR THE 
COUNTRY DOES NOT RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL DURING THE 
2001/2002 SEASON, FOOD SECURITY COULD BECOME A SERIOUS 
CRISIS SITUATION OF SIGNIFICANT PROPORTIONS. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  07271  03 OF 03  281350Z 
 
¶8. COMMENT: (C) THE ZPGA CHAIRMAN CLEARLY FELT THAT HE 
HAD TO ISSUE THE STATEMENT ENCOURAGING COMMERCIAL 
FARMERS TO PLANT MAIZE TO COUNTER THE GOZ'S NOT SO 
SUBTLE PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN ALLEGING THAT COMMERCIAL 
FARMERS (AND WHITE ZIMBABWEANS IN GENERAL) ARE 
SABOTAGING AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AND THE ECONOMY AS A 
WHOLE: TO DISCREDIT THE "FAST-TRACK" LAND PROGRAM; TO 
UNDERMINE PRESIDENT MUGABE AND ZANU-PF; OR MOST 
RIDICULOUSLY, IN ORDER TO STARVE BLACK ZIMBABWEANS.  THE 
GOZ KNOWS THAT ITS "FAST TRACK" LAND PROGRAM, IF CARRIED 
OUT TO ITS LOGICAL CONCLUSION, IS GOING TO LEAD TO A 
DRAMATIC DECREASE IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AT THE VERY 
LEAST LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT AS IT IS WONT, WILL 
NOT TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE FAILURE OF ITS POLICY, 
BUT RATHER WILL SEEK A CONVENIENT SCAPEGOAT.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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