This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.



                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ8943

PAGE 01        HARARE  07163  01 OF 03  201212Z 
ACTION IO-00    

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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7883
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 007163 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL, AA/AFR V. DERRYCK AND 
AFR/SA C. PALMA 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  07163  01 OF 03  201212Z 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2010 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAGR EAID ZI
SUBJECT: UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE SEES POSSIBLE 
SHIFT IN GOZ ATTITUDE ON LAND REFORM FOLLOWING PARTY 
CONGRESS 
 
REF: HARARE 6981 (NOTAL) 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CDA EARL M. IRVING FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND 
(D). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM 
(UNDP) RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE VICTOR ANGELO BRIEFED 
DIPLOMATIC HEADS OF MISSION AND SELECTED AID DIRECTORS 
DECEMBER 19 ON THE CONTENTS OF ADMINISTRATOR MARK 
MALLOCH-BROWN'S LETTER TO PRESIDENT MUGABE.  HE TOLD THE 
GATHERING THAT HE HAD DETECTED A SHIFT IN ZIMBABWEAN 
GOVERNMENT ATTITUDES TOWARD ENGAGING THE INTERNATIONAL 
COMMUNITY ON LAND REFORM FOLLOWING THE CONCLUSION OF THE 
RECENT EXTRAORDINARY ZANU-PF CONGRESS.  MINISTER OF 
LOCAL GOVERNMENT, PUBLIC WORKS AND NATIONAL HOUSING 
IGNATIUS CHOMBO HAD ASSURED HIM THAT NEW INVASIONS OF 
COMMERCIAL FARMS WOULD STOP, "DEMONSTRATORS" ON UNLISTED 
AND FOREIGN OWNER FARMS WOULD BE REMOVED, AND THE WAR 
VETERANS' VIOLENCE AND DEATH THREATS WOULD CEASE.  THE 
COMMERCIAL FARMERS' UNION (CFU) ALSO PERCEIVED A CHANGE 
IN GOVERNMENT DISPOSITION AND REACTED QUICKLY, PUTTING 
TOGETHER AN ARMS-LENGTH NEGOTIATING TEAM TO EXPLORE A 
WAY FORWARD WITH THE GOVERNMENT, ANGELO REPORTED.  OTHER 
SOURCES HAVE CONFIRMED SIMILAR SIGNS OF MOVEMENT FROM 
THE GOVERNMENT.  THE GENERAL REACTION TO ANGELO'S NEWS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  07163  01 OF 03  201212Z 
WAS ONE OF SKEPTICISM.  WHILE WE WILL CONTINUE OUR 
SUPPORT TO THE UNDP INITIATIVE, OUR VIEW OF A GOVERNMENT 
CONVERSION TO THE RULE OF LAW IS LESS OPTIMISTIC THAN 
THAT OF VICTOR ANGELO.  WE SEE GOVERNMENT ADHERENCE TO 
RULE OF LAW IN THE BIKITA WEST BY-ELECTION AND CABINET'S 
REACTION TO THE MALLOCH-BROWN LETTER AS KEY INDICATORS 
THAT HARARE IS READY TO DEAL CONSTRUCTIVELY WITH US ON 
LAND REFORM.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (C) DURING A MEETING DECEMBER 19 TO BRIEF HEADS OF 
MISSION AND SELECTED AID DIRECTORS ON UNDP ADMINISTRATOR 
MARK MALLOCH-BROWN'S LETTER TO PRESIDENT MUGABE 
(REFTEL), RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE VICTOR ANGELO REPORTED 
A CHANGE IN ATTITUDE FROM KEY ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT 
PLAYERS ON THE LAND QUESTION FOLLOWING THE JUST- 
CONCLUDED ZANU-PF EXTRAORDINARY CONGRESS.  ANGELO CITED 
A MEETING HE HAD HAD DECEMBER 18 WITH LOCAL GOVERNMENT, 
PUBLIC WORKS AND NATIONAL HOUSING MINISTER IGNATIUS 
CHOMBO, HEAD OF THE GOZ'S LAND TASK FORCE, WHOSE BODY 
LANGUAGE AND REACTIONS TO A VERBAL PRESENTATION OF THE 
CONTENTS OF MALLOCH-BROWN'S LETTER THE FORMER FOUND 
"ENCOURAGING."  THE MINISTER REPORTEDLY CHARACTERIZED 
THE CURRENT CONJUNCTURE IN ZIMBABWE AS THE "MOST SERIOUS 
AND COMPLEX SINCE INDEPENDENCE." 
 
¶3.  (C) ACCORDING TO THE UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE, 
CHOMBO SAID THAT HE WOULD MAKE OFFICE SPACE AVAILABLE TO 
A TEAM THAT WOULD BE WORKING ON IMPLEMENTING THE LAND 
REFORM IN A MORE ORGANIZED WAY.  THE MINISTER INFORMED 
ANGELO THAT HE HAD EARLIER THAT DAY MET WITH THE WAR 
VETERANS' LEADERSHIP AND SENIOR COMMANDERS FROM THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  07163  01 OF 03  201212Z 
MILITARY, THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION AND THE 
POLICE.  IN THE GATHERING, THE LOCAL GOVERNMENT, PUBLIC 
WORKS AND HOUSING MINISTER REPORTEDLY CONVEYED A REQUEST 
FROM PRESIDENT MUGABE HIMSELF THAT THE WAR VETERANS 
REMOVE "DEMONSTRATORS" FROM COMMERCIAL FARMS THAT HAD 
NOT BEEN LISTED OR FROM FARMS THAT WERE AGRIBUSINESS 
CONCERNS.  FURTHERMORE, HE ASKED THE LEADERSHIP OF THE 
NATIONAL LIBERATION WAR VETERANS' ASSOCIATION TO STOP 
MAKING DEATH THREATS, AND CEASE SANCTIONING THE USE OF 
VIOLENCE AGAINST COMMERCIAL FARMERS AND THEIR FARM 
WORKERS.  THE UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE TOLD THE 
MINISTER THAT HE TOOK NOTE OF THE INFORMATION AND WOULD 
MONITOR PROGRESS OF ITS IMPLEMENTATION ON THE GROUND. 
CHOMBO AND OTHERS "IN THE PRESIDENT'S OFFICE" HAD BEEN 
SENDING SIGNALS THE PAST TWO WEEKS THAT LINES OF 
COMMUNICATION WERE NOT CLOSED, ANGELO CONTINUED, AND 
THAT THE GOVERNMENT WAS VERY MUCH INTERESTED IN STUDYING 
MALLOCH-BROWN'S PROPOSALS.  MOREOVER, THE UNDP RESIDENT 
REPRESENTATIVE REPORTED THAT THE GOVERNMENT PLANNED TO 
"DE-LIST" FARMS THAT FELL UNDER THE ZIMBABWE INVESTMENT 
CENTER AND AGRIBUSINESS (I.E., FOREIGN OWNED INTERESTS). 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ8944 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  07163  02 OF 03  201213Z 
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      VCE-00   NSAE-00  OIC-02   SS-00    STR-00   DSCC-00  PRM-02 
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                  ------------------ADC6D2  201213Z /38 
P 201212Z DEC 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7884 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 007163 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL, AA/AFR V. DERRYCK AND 
AFR/SA C. PALMA 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  07163  02 OF 03  201213Z 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2010 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAGR EAID ZI
SUBJECT: UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE SEES POSSIBLE 
SHIFT IN GOZ ATTITUDE ON LAND REFORM FOLLOWING PARTY 
CONGRESS 
 
¶4.  (C) THE CFU HAD DETECTED A SHIFT IN GOVERNMENT 
DISPOSITION AS WELL, ANGELO REPORTED.  THE ORGANIZATION 
HAD APPOINTED A THREE-PERSON TEAM, CONSISTING OF 
INDIVIDUALS WHO WERE NOT ELECTED OFFICIALS BUT ENJOYED 
THE TRUST OF BOTH SIDES, TO ENGAGE THE GOVERNMENT IN 
NEGOTIATIONS AND REPORT TO THE CFU LEADERSHIP.  THE 
RATIONALE OF FORMING THE TEAM WAS TO GIVE IT SOME 
AUTONOMY OF ACTION, TO KEEP THE CFU LEADERSHIP AT ARM'S 
LENGTH, AND TO AVOID EXPOSING THE LEADERSHIP FURTHER. 
ANGELO CONCLUDED THAT THE CFU HAD TWO CHOICES: TO 
CONTINUE WITH ITS COURT CASES AND WIN THEM BUT LOSE THE 
BATTLE, OR RESOLVE SOME OF THE ISSUES OUTSIDE THE COURTS 
AND SKETCH OUT A WAY FORWARD.  ANGELO ENDORSED THE 
LATTER SORT OF PRAGMATISM WITHIN A SERIOUS SITUATION. 
THE GERMAN AMBASSADOR CONCURRED REGARDING THE MARKED 
DIFFERENCE IN THE CFU LEADERSHIP'S MOOD.  HE SPECULATED 
THAT IT MAY HAVE BEEN DUE TO THE FACT THAT, IN SPITE OF 
THE VITUPERATIVE TIRADES AGAINST THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS 
AND WHITES IN GENERAL, THE PARTY CONGRESS HAD CONCLUDED 
THAT ZANU-PF WILL NOT WIN WITH THE FAST TRACK LAND 
RESETTLEMENT EXERCISE. 
 
¶5.  (C) BUTTRESSING THE FOREGOING SIGNS OF A POSSIBLE 
EASING OF THE GOZ'S HARD-LINE STANCE, ONE OF ZIMBABWE'S 
LEADING AND VERY WELL-CONNECTED ECONOMIC COMMENTATORS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  07163  02 OF 03  201213Z 
TOLD ECONOFF ON DECEMBER 19 THAT HE HAD SEEN DEFINITE 
SIGNS OVER THE LAST WEEK THAT TOP LEADERSHIP HAD 
DISCUSSED THE ISSUE AT CABINET LEVEL, AND APPARENTLY 
AGREED TO AT LEAST ENGAGE IN SERIOUS DIALOGUE.  SIMBA 
MAKONI AND NKOSONA MOYO (THE FINANCE AND TRADE 
MINISTERS), VICE PRESIDENT JOSEPH MSIKA AND MIDLANDS 
PROVINCE GOVERNOR CEPHAS MSIPA, ALL SEPARATELY TOLD THE 
ECONOMIST THAT THE GOVERNMENT AT LEAST WANTED TO ENGAGE 
IN DIALOGUE AND EXPLORE A POSSIBLE FACE-SAVING WAY 
FORWARD.  SOME ISSUES, SUCH AS A RETURN TO THE WILLING 
SELLER-WILLING BUYER BASIS AND COMPENSATION FOR THE LAND 
WERE NON-NEGOTIABLE; HOWEVER THE INVASIONS COULD BE 
SLOWED DOWN OR SUSPENDED IF THERE WOULD BE INTERNATIONAL 
ASSISTANCE FOR INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT.  THREE OF THE 
FOUR EMPHASIZED THAT EVICTIONS (OF THE RESETTLED) COULD 
NOT TAKE PLACE, BUT THE WAR VETERANS' ARDOR COULD BE 
TONED DOWN.  AS AN OUTWARD MANIFESTATION OF THIS 
TACTICAL SHIFT, THE ECONOMIST POINTED OUT THAT IN A 
SPEECH DELIVERED AT A MILITARY SCHOOL OFFICER 
COMMISSIONING CEREMONY ON DECEMBER 16 IN GWERU ON THE 
HEELS OF THE PARTY CONGRESS, PRESIDENT MUGABE TOLD THE 
AUDIENCE IN SHONA THAT NO ADDITIONAL INVASIONS SHOULD 
OCCUR, AND THAT THE RESETTLED NEEDED TO CONSOLIDATE 
THEIR GAINS AND WORK ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY. 
 
¶6.  (C) THE GENERAL DONOR REACTION TO ANGELO'S NEWS WAS 
MIXED, TENDING TOWARD THE SKEPTICAL AND WE'LL-BELIEVE- 
IT-WHEN-WE-SEE-IT.  THE SPANISH AMBASSADOR DESCRIBED 
MINISTER CHOMBO'S OSTENSIBLE ASSURANCES AS "WISHFUL 
THINKING."  THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION'S REPRESENTATIVE 
REMINDED THOSE ASSEMBLED THAT THE PARTY CONGRESS FULLY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  07163  02 OF 03  201213Z 
BACKED THE FAST-TRACK RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM.  THE DANISH 
AMBASSADOR SAID, "IT MAY BE TOO LATE FOR US.  THE 
TAXPAYERS AND THE POLITICIANS HAVE HEARD THE RHETORIC," 
AND WILL NOT HELP THE CURRENT ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT. 
ANGELO'S FINAL COMMENT BACKPEDALED FROM HIS EARLIER 
ATTEMPT TO SPIN SOME OPTIMISM, "I DIDN'T SAY THAT THERE 
WAS LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL; I SAID THAT WE WERE 
IN A TUNNEL..." 
 
¶7.  COMMENT:  WE ARE PREPARED TO FOLLOW THE MALLOCH- 
BROWN INITIATIVE AS FAR AS IT GOES.  THAT SAID, WE 
DETECT A SHIFT IN GOAL POSTS MORE THAN ATTITUDES OR 
BEHAVIOR HERE.  OUR CONCERN ABOUT RULE OF LAW IS NO 
LONGER FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON LAND.  WE MUST LOOK AT 
VIOLENCE IN THE MARONDERA WEST BY-ELECTION AND THAT 
LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE JANUARY 13-14 BIKITA BY-ELECTION, 
THE GOVERNMENT'S PROBABLY UNCONSTITUTIONAL INVALIDATION 
OF THE ELECTORAL CHALLENGES BY PRESIDENTIAL DECREE, THE 
THREATS ON THE JUDICIARY FROM ALL SIDES, AND THE 
PRESIDENT'S RACE-BAITING AND IGNORING ORDERS FROM THE 
HIGH AND SUPREME COURTS.  THE BREAKDOWN IN RESPECT FOR 
LAW AND ORDER IS GETTING VERY SERIOUS AND MAY WELL 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ8945 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  07163  03 OF 03  201213Z 
ACTION IO-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AF-00    AGRE-00  AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00 
      DODE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   L-00 
      VCE-00   NSAE-00  OIC-02   SS-00    STR-00   DSCC-00  PRM-02 
      DRL-02   NFAT-00  SAS-00     /006W 
                  ------------------ADC6D7  201213Z /38 
P 201212Z DEC 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7885 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 007163 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL, AA/AFR V. DERRYCK AND 
AFR/SA C. PALMA 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  07163  03 OF 03  201213Z 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2010 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAGR EAID ZI
SUBJECT: UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE SEES POSSIBLE 
SHIFT IN GOZ ATTITUDE ON LAND REFORM FOLLOWING PARTY 
CONGRESS 
 
BACKFIRE ON THE GOVERNMENT (ANGELO HIMSELF SAID THAT 
SOME OF HIS GOVERNMENT INTERLOCUTORS HAD ACKNOWLEDGED 
THIS "PANDORA'S BOX").  WE WILL LOOK FOR SOLID SIGNS OF 
A RETURN TO THE RULE OF LAW, NOT ONLY IN BIKITA, BUT 
ALSO ON THE FARMS AND AT STATE HOUSE.  CABINET'S 
REACTION TO THE MALLOCH-BROWN INITIATIVE WILL BE 
IMPORTANT, TOO.  AT THE MOMENT, AND IN SPITE OF VICTOR 
ANGELO'S UNSINKABLE OPTIMISM, THE PROVERBIAL GLASS STILL 
APPEARS TO BE HALF-EMPTY TO US.  END COMMENT. 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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