This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

230817Z May 00


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5608

PAGE 01        HARARE  02734  01 OF 05  230816Z 
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                  ------------------5A204B  230817Z /38    
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6108
INFO NSC WASHDC
DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
DEPTTREAS WASHDC
USDOC WASHDC
AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 
AMEMBASSY GABORONE 
AMEMBASSY LILONGWE 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 
AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK 
AMEMBASSY LUSAKA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 HARARE 002734 
 
SIPDIS 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02734  01 OF 05  230816Z 
DEPT FOR DRL/ROBERT WARD 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD 
TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN 
USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS 
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
 
DEPT PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI - 
MARC SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL 
 
DEPT PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2000 
TAGS: PGOV ELAB PINR ZI MDC
SUBJECT: MDC STILL LIKELY TO WIN AT LEAST 20 PERCENT OF 
TOTAL PARLIAMENTARY SEATS 
 
REF: (A) HARARE 00395, (B) HARARE 02560, (C) HARARE 
 
01797 
 
CLASSIFIED BY LABOFF SHAWN THORNE FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) 
AND (D). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: DESPITE A STATE-SPONSORED CAMPAIGN OF 
INTIMIDATION AND VIOLENCE, AND THE RULING PARTY'S 
CONTROL OF THE ELECTORAL PROCESS, THE MOVEMENT FOR 
DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) STILL IS LIKELY TO WIN AT LEAST 
20 PERCENT OF THE 150 PARLIAMENTARY SEAT TOTAL (OR 30 
SEATS) IN THE ELECTIONS NOW SCHEDULED FOR JUNE 24-25. 
(NOTE: ONLY 120 OF THE 150 SEATS ARE ELECTED. THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  02734  01 OF 05  230816Z 
REMAINING 30 ARE APPOINTED BY THE PRESIDENT. END NOTE.) 
APPROXIMATELY 42 OF THE 120 SEATS UP FOR GRABS REPRESENT 
URBAN AND/OR PERI-URBAN AREAS, WHILE 78 ARE LOCATED IN 
RURAL AREAS. SUPPORT FOR THE MDC REMAINS STRONG IN MOST 
URBAN CENTERS; HENCE OUR PREDICTION THAT THE OPPOSITION 
MOVEMENT WILL MANAGE TO CAPTURE AT LEAST 30 SEATS (REF 
A). HOWEVER, MDC LEADERS HAVE EXPRESSED THEIR SURPRISE 
AT THE LEVEL OF SUSTAINED STATE SPONSORED VIOLENCE AND 
INTIMIDATION TAKING PLACE IN THE COUNTRYSIDE -- AND 
INCREASINGLY IN THE CITIES -- AND THE REFUSAL OF THE 
POLICE TO INTERVENE. MEANWHILE, THE RULING PARTY ZANU-PF 
IS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF ITS CONTROL OF THE ELECTORAL 
PROCESS BY DELAYING THE OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT OF 
CONSTITUENCY BOUNDARIES. THE MDC ARGUES THAT IT CANNOT 
FORMALLY NOMINATE CANDIDATES FOR EACH CONSTITUENCY UNTIL 
IT KNOWS WHAT THOSE CONSTITUENCIES ARE, AND THAT THE GOZ 
IS PURPOSELY DELAYING THE RELEASE OF THIS INFORMATION. 
NONETHELESS, MDC LEADERS STATE THE PARTY ENJOYS 
WIDESPREAD AND SUBSTANTIAL SUPPORT IN BOTH URBAN AND 
RURAL AREAS, AND THAT THE RULING PARTY'S INTIMIDATION 
TACTICS WILL BACKFIRE COME ELECTION DAY. WHILE POST 
EXPECTS THE MDC TO CERTAINLY GET A FOOT IN THE DOOR OF 
PARLIAMENT, AT THIS TIME WE BELIEVE IT WILL BE NEARLY 
IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE PARTY TO SECURE A PARLIAMENTARY 
MAJORITY OF 76 SEATS. END SUMMARY. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
ZANU-PF'S CAMPAIGN OF VIOLENCE CONTINUES 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) THE RULING PARTY'S CAMPAIGN OF INTIMIDATION AND 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  02734  01 OF 05  230816Z 
VIOLENCE CONTINUES ACROSS THE COUNTRY, AND WE EXPECT IT 
TO WORSEN IN THE RUN-UP TO THE JUNE 24-25 ELECTION DATE 
(REF B). ACCORDING TO A RUNNING DATABASE BEING COMPILED 
BY A MIXTURE OF HUMAN RIGHTS GROUPS, CHURCHES, 
OPPOSITION PARTIES, AND THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION, 
OVER 5,000 ASSAULTS AND INJURIES, AND AT LEAST 21 
MURDERS, HAVE OCCURRED SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE FARM 
INVASIONS IN FEBRUARY. ALMOST ALL OF THE VIOLENT ACTS, 
ACCORDING TO EYEWITNESSES, WERE CARRIED OUT BY ZANU-PF 
SUPPORTERS. FOR THE MOST PART, THE POLICE, UNDER ORDERS 
FROM THE POWERS-THAT-BE, HAVE STOOD IDLY BY -- AND IN 
SOME CASES EVEN ASSISTED THE ATTACKERS -- AS THESE 
CRIMES HAVE BEEN COMMITTED. THE BULK OF THE RULING 
PARTY'S CAMPAIGN HAS BEEN FOCUSED IN THE RURAL AREAS 
WHERE TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY'S POPULATION RESIDE. ON 
INVADED COMMERCIAL FARMS (WHICH NOW TOTAL OVER 1,000), 
WAR VETERANS AND GROUPS OF ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS (MAINLY 
UNEMPLOYED YOUTH) CONTINUE TO TERRORIZE FARMERS AND 
THEIR EMPLOYEES, FORCING THEM TO ATTEND "RE-EDUCATION" 
RALLIES AND SEVERELY BEATING (IN SOME CASES MURDERING) 
SUSPECTED MDC SUPPORTERS. 
 
¶3. (C) IN RECENT WEEKS, THE WAVE OF VIOLENCE HAS SWEPT 
INTO THE CITIES, IN PARTICULAR PERI-URBAN AREAS AND HIGH 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5611 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  02734  02 OF 05  230817Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
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                  ------------------5A205B  230817Z /38 
R 230817Z MAY 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6109 
INFO NSC WASHDC 
DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC 
DEPTTREAS WASHDC 
USDOC WASHDC 
AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 
AMEMBASSY GABORONE 
AMEMBASSY LILONGWE 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 
AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK 
AMEMBASSY LUSAKA 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 05 HARARE 002734 
 
SIPDIS 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02734  02 OF 05  230817Z 
DEPT FOR DRL/ROBERT WARD 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD 
TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN 
USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS 
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
 
DEPT PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI - 
MARC SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL 
 
DEPT PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2000 
TAGS: PGOV ELAB PINR ZI MDC
SUBJECT: MDC STILL LIKELY TO WIN AT LEAST 20 PERCENT OF 
TOTAL PARLIAMENTARY SEATS 
 
DENSITY TOWNSHIPS. ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS HAVE BURNED THE 
HOMES AND DESTROYED PROPERTY OF NUMEROUS MDC OFFICIALS 
IN HARARE, GWERU, AND KWEKWE, AND VIOLENT SKIRMISHES 
BETWEEN MDC AND ZANU-PF MEMBERS OCCUR REGULARLY AROUND 
THE COUNTRY. WAR VETERANS AND OTHER ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS, 
EMBOLDENED BY THE TACIT SUPPORT OF POLICE, HAVE BEGUN TO 
TARGET FACTORIES AND OTHER BUSINESSES, MOST OF WHICH ARE 
OWNED BY WHITES OR MEMBERS OF THE INDIAN COMMUNITY WITH 
SUSPECTED MDC LOYALTIES. DURING THE WEEK OF MAY 15, FOR 
EXAMPLE, TWO FACTORIES IN BULAWAYO AND ONE LUMBER MILL 
IN CHIPINGE WERE STORMED BY GROUPS OF ZANU-PF THUGS 
DEMANDING MONEY FOR THEIR CAMPAIGN, AS WELL AS 
MANAGEMENT'S' OATH OF ALLEGIANCE TO THE RULING PARTY. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  02734  02 OF 05  230817Z 
ACCORDING TO EYEWITNESSES, SEVERAL EMPLOYEES WERE BEATEN 
AND THE MANAGEMENT STAFF "ROUGHED UP" AS POLICE STOOD BY 
IN PLAIN VIEW AND DID NOTHING. ONE INDIAN BUSINESSMAN 
TOLD LABOFF THAT THE AFFIRMATIVE ACTION GROUP, A 
GOVERNMENT-SUPPORTED NGO OSTENSIBLY WORKING TO INCREASE 
EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR BLACK ZIMBABWEANS, HAS 
LAUNCHED A PUBLIC CAMPAIGN IN BULAWAYO, HARARE, AND 
MUTARE THAT TARGETS INDIAN BUSINESSPEOPLE AS "AGENTS OF 
THE MDC." THE CONTACT STATED THAT HE AND OTHER 
COLLEAGUES ALSO HAVE RECEIVED ANONYMOUS THREATS THAT, 
SHOULD THE MDC WIN IN THEIR CONSTITUENCIES, THEIR 
FAMILIES AND PROPERTY WOULD SUFFER THE CONSEQUENCES. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
RULING PARTY STACKS THE DECK IN THE ELECTORAL PROCESS 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶4. (C) IN ADDITION TO ITS CAMPAIGN OF INTIMIDATION, THE 
RULING PARTY ALSO IS USING ITS CONTROL OF THE ELECTORAL 
PROCESS TO STACK THE DECK IN ITS FAVOR. SUPREME COURT 
JUSTICE WILSON SANDURA HAS STATED PUBLICLY THAT, AS OF 
MAY 19, THE DELIMITATION COMMISSION WHICH HE CHAIRS HAD 
NOT RELEASED ITS OFFICIAL WRITTEN REPORT. HOWEVER, 
JUSTICE SANDURA TOLD REPRESENTATIVES OF THE NATIONAL 
DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTE (NDI) PRE-ELECTION SURVEY TEAM 
DURING THE WEEK OF MAY 15 THAT WHILE HE HAS DISCUSSED 
THE BOUNDARIES OF THE NEW CONSTITUENCIES VERBALLY WITH 
PRESIDENT MUGABE, HE HAS NOT PROVIDED HIM WITH ANY 
WRITTEN REPORT.  SANDURA SAID THE PROPOSED MAPS SHOWING 
THE NEW BOUNDARIES WERE NOT EVEN PREPARED YET, AS THEY 
ARE STILL BEING WORKED ON BY THE SURVEYOR GENERAL'S 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  02734  02 OF 05  230817Z 
OFFICE, AND ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE READY UNTIL MAY 26. 
NEVERTHELESS, IT IS CLEAR THAT THE NEW BOUNDARIES ARE 
KNOWN TO THE RULING PARTY, AS MINISTER OF JUSTICE, LEGAL 
AND PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS EMMERSON MNANGAGWA STATED ON 
NATIONAL TELEVISION NEWS ON MAY 16 THAT THE DELIMITATION 
COMMISSION HAD COMPLETED ITS WORK, AND THAT SEVERAL 
CONSTITUENCIES HAD BEEN ELIMINATED IN THE PROCESS OF RE- 
DRAWING THE VOTING BOUNDARIES. (NOTE: ONE OF THE 
CONSTITUENCIES THAT HAS BEEN ELIMINATED, ACCORDING TO 
THE MINISTER, IS BULAWAYO SOUTH, WHERE ATTORNEY DAVID 
COLTART, THE MDC'S SECRETARY FOR LEGAL AFFAIRS, WAS 
FAVORED TO WIN. MARGARET DONGO'S CONSTITUENCY IN HARARE 
SOUTH WAS ALSO DISSOLVED. END NOTE.) 
 
¶5. (C) MEANWHILE, THE GOZ HAS DECLARED MAY 29 AS THE 
DEADLINE FOR THE SUBMISSION OF CANDIDATES' NAMES TO THE 
NOMINATING COURT. OUR SOURCES TELL US THAT THE GOZ IS 
UNLIKELY TO RELEASE THE OFFICIAL RESULTS OF THE 
DELIMITATION EXERCISE UNTIL ABOUT MAY 22. THE MDC AND 
OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES ARGUE THAT ONE WEEK IS NOT 
ENOUGH TIME TO EXAMINE THE NEW CONSTITUENCIES AND 
OFFICIALLY SUBMIT THEIR CANDIDATES' CREDENTIALS TO THE 
NOMINATING COURT. (NOTE: SEE REF (C) FOR A TIMELINE OF 
PREREQUISITES THAT, ACCORDING TO THE ELECTORAL ACT, THE 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5615 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  02734  03 OF 05  230817Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
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      TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    DCP-01 
      NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00 
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                  ------------------5A2067  230817Z /38 
R 230817Z MAY 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6110 
INFO NSC WASHDC 
DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC 
DEPTTREAS WASHDC 
USDOC WASHDC 
AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 
AMEMBASSY GABORONE 
AMEMBASSY LILONGWE 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 
AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK 
AMEMBASSY LUSAKA 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 05 HARARE 002734 
 
SIPDIS 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02734  03 OF 05  230817Z 
DEPT FOR DRL/ROBERT WARD 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD 
TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN 
USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS 
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
 
DEPT PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI - 
MARC SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL 
 
DEPT PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2000 
TAGS: PGOV ELAB PINR ZI MDC
SUBJECT: MDC STILL LIKELY TO WIN AT LEAST 20 PERCENT OF 
TOTAL PARLIAMENTARY SEATS 
 
GOZ MUST FOLLOW BEFORE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. END 
NOTE.) DAVID COLTART AND TENDAI BITI, THE MDC'S 
SECRETARY FOR LANDS AND AGRICULTURE, ANNOUNCED TO THE 
 
SIPDIS 
PRESS ON MAY 18 THAT THE MDC INTENDS TO SUE PRESIDENT 
MUGABE FOR FAILING TO ANNOUNCE THE NEW CONSTITUENCIES IN 
SUFFICIENT TIME TO ALLOW CANDIDATES TO SUBMIT THEIR 
NOMINATIONS, AS WELL AS OTHER GOVERNMENT TACTICS THAT 
THE MDC ARGUES IS PRECLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF FREE AND 
FAIR ELECTIONS ON JUNE 24-25. 
 
¶6. (C) COMMENT: WHEN THE DELIMITATION COMMISSION'S 
OFFICIAL REPORT IS RELEASED, WE EXPECT TO SEE THE 
BOUNDARIES REDRAWN TO SPLIT UP THOSE CONSTITUENCIES, 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  02734  03 OF 05  230817Z 
PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS, THAT ARE KNOWN TO BE PRO- 
MDC. IN SOME CASES, LIKE BULAWAYO SOUTH, THE 
CONSTITUENCY WILL BE ELIMINATED ALTOGETHER. THE RULING 
PARTY LIKELY WILL WAIT AS LONG AS POSSIBLE TO RELEASE 
THE REPORT, GIVING THE MDC VERY LITTLE TIME TO SUBMIT 
ITS CANDIDATES' NOMINATIONS. THE RULING PARTY'S 
TAMPERING WITH THE CONSTITUENT BOUNDARIES -- AND ALMOST 
CERTAINLY WITH THE VOTERS' ROLL -- IS CLEARLY AN ATTEMPT 
TO DISADVANTAGE THE MDC AT THE POLLS IN JUNE. END 
COMMENT. 
 
------------------- 
MDC STILL CONFIDENT 
------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, PRESIDENT OF THE MDC, TOLD 
REPORTERS ON MAY 10 THAT HIS PARTY WAS CONSIDERING 
BOYCOTTING THE ELECTIONS BECAUSE, IN THE CURRENT CLIMATE 
OF INTIMIDATION, A FREE AND FAIR VOTE WOULD NOT BE 
POSSIBLE. THE GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED MEDIA SEIZED THE 
OPPORTUNITY TO PORTRAY THE MDC AS TURNING TAIL AND 
RUNNING WHEN THE GOING GOT TOUGH. DAVID COLTART 
EXPLAINED THAT TSVANGIRAI'S STATEMENT WAS NOT ONE OF 
COWARDICE, BUT RATHER AN OFFER TO MDC CANDIDATES OF A 
WAY OUT OF THE VIOLENCE, IF THEY CHOSE TO TAKE IT. 
ACCORDING TO COLTART AND WELSHMAN NCUBE, THE MDC'S 
SECRETARY GENERAL, THE PARTY'S SENIOR LEADERSHIP IS 
 
SIPDIS 
DEEPLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE WELFARE OF ITS CANDIDATES AND 
SUPPORTERS IN THE FIELD WHO ARE BEING, OR HAVE BEEN, 
TARGETS OF VIOLENCE. BY SUGGESTING A BOYCOTT, TSVANGIRAI 
WAS OFFERING HIS MEMBERS THE CHANCE TO DROP OUT OF THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  02734  03 OF 05  230817Z 
RACE AND REDUCE THEIR EXPOSURE, WHILE STILL SAVING FACE. 
THE ANSWER FROM MDC CANDIDATES WAS A RESOUNDING "NO." 
ACCORDING TO COLTART, ATTENDEES OF A MAY 13 MEETING OF 
THE PARTY LEADERSHIP OVERWHELMINGLY VOTED AGAINST 
BOYCOTTING THE ELECTION, ARGUING THAT THE RULING PARTY'S 
CAMPAIGN OF TERROR WAS HAVING THE OPPOSITE EFFECT ON 
VOTERS, AND THAT THEY WERE WILLING TO SUFFER THE 
CONSEQUENCES OF CONTINUED CAMPAIGNING IN ORDER TO "BRING 
AN END TO MUGABE'S DICTATORSHIP." THE MDC'S ELECTION 
CAMPAIGN THEREFORE CONTINUES. 
 
¶8. (C) WELSHMAN NCUBE CONFIRMED THAT THE PARTY STILL 
INTENDS TO FIELD CANDIDATES IN EVERY DISTRICT EXCEPT 
THAT OF INDEPENDENT PARLIAMENTARIAN MARGARET DONGO. 
ALTHOUGH FUNDING CONTINUES TO BE A PROBLEM, NCUBE STATED 
THAT SMALL, INDIVIDUAL, AND OFTEN ANONYMOUS DONATIONS 
CONTINUE TO ARRIVE REGULARLY, AND THAT ALL OF THESE 
"DROPS IN THE BUCKET" ARE ADDING UP. BEFORE THE START OF 
THE COMMERCIAL FARM INVASIONS IN FEBRUARY, WHITE FARMERS 
AND BUSINESSPEOPLE WERE MAKING SOME SUBSTANTIAL 
DONATIONS. TSVANGIRAI'S NUMEROUS TRIPS TO SOUTH AFRICA 
AND EUROPE IN RECENT MONTHS YIELDED SOME CONTRIBUTIONS 
FROM FELLOW TRADE UNIONISTS IN THOSE COUNTRIES. NCUBE 
ADDED THAT THE PARTY CONTINUES TO RECEIVE FREQUENT 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5619 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  02734  04 OF 05  230818Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
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      TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    DCP-01 
      NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00 
      P-00     SP-00    USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02   G-00 
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                  ------------------5A2078  230818Z /38 
R 230817Z MAY 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6111 
INFO NSC WASHDC 
DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC 
DEPTTREAS WASHDC 
USDOC WASHDC 
AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 
AMEMBASSY GABORONE 
AMEMBASSY LILONGWE 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 
AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK 
AMEMBASSY LUSAKA 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 05 HARARE 002734 
 
SIPDIS 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02734  04 OF 05  230818Z 
DEPT FOR DRL/ROBERT WARD 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD 
TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN 
USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS 
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
 
DEPT PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI - 
MARC SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL 
 
DEPT PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2000 
TAGS: PGOV ELAB PINR ZI MDC
SUBJECT: MDC STILL LIKELY TO WIN AT LEAST 20 PERCENT OF 
TOTAL PARLIAMENTARY SEATS 
 
DONATIONS (MANY OVER THE INTERNET) FROM INDIVIDUALS 
LIVING ABROAD, PARTICULARLY ZIMBABWEAN EXPATRIATES IN 
THE U.K. ALTHOUGH THE MONEY IS COMING IN, NCUBE ADMITTED 
THAT IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO MOUNT THE TYPE OF MEDIA AND 
GRASSROOTS CAMPAIGN THAT THE MDC NEEDS. "WE NEED ABOUT 
U.S.$3.5 MILLION TO RUN THE CAMPAIGN THAT WE WANT," HE 
SAID. "WE HAVEN'T EVEN GOT HALF OF THAT." 
 
¶9. (C) BEYOND FUNDING SHORTFALLS, THE WAVE OF STATE- 
SPONSORED VIOLENCE ACROSS ZIMBABWE HAS FORCED THE MDC'S 
CAMPAIGN LARGELY UNDERGROUND AT THIS POINT. NCUBE TOLD 
EMBOFFS THAT THE PARTY WAS "SURPRISED" BY, AND 
"UNPREPARED" FOR, THE LEVEL OF INTIMIDATION THAT THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  02734  04 OF 05  230818Z 
RULING PARTY HAS BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN. IN PARTICULAR, 
SAID NCUBE, MDC LEADERS DID NOT EXPECT THE POLICE TO 
TOTALLY ABDICATE THEIR RESPONSIBILITY AND ALLOW VICIOUS 
BEATINGS AND KILLINGS TO TAKE PLACE WITHOUT CONSEQUENCE. 
AS A RESULT, THE MDC NOW IS HOLDING ALMOST NO RALLIES ON 
COMMERCIAL FARMS, EITHER BECAUSE THE AREAS HAVE BEEN 
INVADED BY WAR VETERANS AND THEIR FOLLOWERS, AND/OR 
BECAUSE THE FARMERS, FEARFUL OF RETALIATION PERPETRATED 
BY THE RULING PARTY TOUGHS, REFUSE TO ALLOW THE EVENTS 
TO TAKE PLACE ON THEIR PROPERTIES. MOREOVER, SAID NCUBE, 
THE MDC RECOGNIZES THAT AGENTS FROM THE CENTRAL 
INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION (CIO) ARE PRESENT AT MOST OF 
THEIR GATHERINGS, AND THAT ANY FARM WORKER THAT ATTENDS 
ONE OF THEIR RALLIES IS LIKELY TO BE "VISITED LATER IN 
THE NIGHT." IN THE CITIES AND PERI-URBAN AREAS WHERE THE 
MDC ENJOYS WIDESPREAD SUPPORT, SAID NCUBE, THE PARTY IS 
STILL ABLE TO HOLD SMALL RALLIES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO 
SO. THE MAJORITY OF THE MDC'S CAMPAIGNING NOW IS BEING 
DONE BY WORD OF MOUTH, THOUGH, IN SMALL GROUPS AT 
PEOPLE'S HOMES AND OTHER PRIVATE LOCATIONS. PARTY 
LEADERS HAVE ADVISED THEIR MEMBERS -- PARTICULARLY IN 
THE TROUBLED AREAS OF THE MASHONALAND PROVINCES -- TO 
PUT THEIR PERSONAL SAFETY FIRST AND AVOID WEARING MDC T- 
SHIRTS OR CHANTING MDC SLOGANS IN PUBLIC. THE LEADERS 
THEMSELVES ALSO ARE TAKING EXTRA SECURITY PRECAUTIONS, 
INCLUDING SENDING THEIR IMMEDIATE FAMILY MEMBERS TO STAY 
WITH FRIENDS OR DISTANT RELATIVES. 
 
¶10. (C) DESPITE THE RULING PARTY'S ATTEMPTS TO "RE- 
EDUCATE" ITS WAYWARD CITIZENS, THE MDC STILL IS 
CONFIDENT OF WINNING A MAJORITY OF 76 SEATS IN 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  02734  04 OF 05  230818Z 
PARLIAMENT. MDC MEMBERS ASSERT THAT ZANU-PF WILL 
DISCOVER ON ELECTION DAY THAT ITS INTIMIDATION TACTICS 
HAVE BACKFIRED. NCUBE PREDICTS WITH GREAT CONFIDENCE 
THAT, "PEOPLE WILL VOTE THEIR CONSCIENCE" AT THE POLLS. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶11. (C) THE RULING PARTY'S SCARE TACTICS AND "RE- 
EDUCATION" CAMPAIGN, BOTH ON THE FARMS AND IN THE 
GOVERNMENT-OWNED MEDIA, UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE HAD SOME EFFECT 
ON VOTERS. IN THE RURAL AREAS, FARM WORKERS AND COMMUNAL 
RESIDENTS -- TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY'S POPULATION -- 
GENERALLY ARE UNSOPHISTICATED; LACK ACCESS TO ANY MEDIA 
EXCEPT THAT CONTROLLED BY THE GOVERNMENT; AND, ACCORDING 
TO SOME COMMERCIAL FARMERS, ARE EASILY INTIMIDATED BY 
THE RULING PARTY. HIGH PRICES, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND 
DECLINING DISPOSABLE INCOME HAVE TAUGHT RURAL RESIDENTS, 
HOWEVER, THAT ALL IS NOT WELL WITH ZANU-PF'S MANAGEMENT 
OF THE ECONOMY. MEANWHILE, MANY OF THEIR CHILDREN AND 
OTHER RELATIVES LIVE IN THE CITY AND RETURN HOME ON 
WEEKENDS WITH TALES OF THEIR FINANCIAL STRAITS -- A 
STATE OF AFFAIRS THAT THE MDC IS PROMISING TO REVERSE. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5620 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  02734  05 OF 05  230818Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  SMEC-00  INL-01 
      DINT-00  DODE-00  DOEE-00  DOTE-00  ANHR-00  WHA-00   SRPP-00 
      DS-00    EB-00    EUR-01   FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-01    H-01 
      TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    DCP-01 
      NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00 
      P-00     SP-00    USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02   G-00 
      NFAT-00  SAS-00     /011W 
                  ------------------5A207E  230818Z /38 
R 230817Z MAY 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6112 
INFO NSC WASHDC 
DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC 
DEPTTREAS WASHDC 
USDOC WASHDC 
AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 
AMEMBASSY GABORONE 
AMEMBASSY LILONGWE 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 
AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK 
AMEMBASSY LUSAKA 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 05 OF 05 HARARE 002734 
 
SIPDIS 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02734  05 OF 05  230818Z 
DEPT FOR DRL/ROBERT WARD 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD 
TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN 
USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS 
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
 
DEPT PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI - 
MARC SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL 
 
DEPT PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2000 
TAGS: PGOV ELAB PINR ZI MDC
SUBJECT: MDC STILL LIKELY TO WIN AT LEAST 20 PERCENT OF 
TOTAL PARLIAMENTARY SEATS 
 
IT IS THEREFORE DIFFICULT TO JUDGE HOW RURAL RESIDENTS 
WILL VOTE IN JUNE, PARTICULARLY NOW THAT THE RULING 
PARTY HAS EFFECTIVELY QUELLED THEIR ABILITY TO FREELY 
EXPRESS THEIR POLITICAL VIEWS. IN THE URBAN CENTERS, WE 
CONTINUE TO SEE A HIGH DEGREE OF SUPPORT FOR THE MDC, 
PARTICULARLY AMONG WORKING CLASS ZIMBABWEANS WHO 
SUPPORTED THE PARTY'S EMERGENCE FROM THE ZIMBABWEAN 
CONGRESS OF TRADE UNIONS (ZCTU). GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF 
HIGH NUMBERS OF MDC VOTES IN THE APPROXIMATELY 38 URBAN 
CONSTITUENCIES, AS WELL AS THE STILL LARGELY UNCLEAR 
SYMPATHIES OF RURAL VOTERS, WE BELIEVE THAT AN MDC WIN 
OF AT LEAST 30 OF THE PARLIAMENTARY SEATS IS PROBABLE. 
GIVEN THE UNREMITTING CAMPAIGN OF VIOLENCE, HOWEVER, THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  02734  05 OF 05  230818Z 
MDC IS UNLIKELY TO WIN MANY MORE -- AND CERTAINLY NOT 
THE 76 SEATS IT EARLIER BOASTED WERE IN THE BAG -- IN 
THIS ELECTION. END COMMENT. 
 
MCDONALD 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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