VZCZCXRO6288
PP RUEHSL
DE RUEHVL #0086 0351417
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 041417Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY VILNIUS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4145
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHKV/AMEMBASSY KYIV PRIORITY 0761
RUEHSI/AMEMBASSY TBILISI PRIORITY 0098

C O N F I D E N T I A L VILNIUS 000086 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2020 
TAGS: PREF PHUMS XH UP LH
SUBJECT: LITHUANIA AND UKRAINE WILL REMAIN STRATEGIC 
PARTNERS REGARDLESS OF ELECTION OUTCOME 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affairs Damian R. Leader for reasons 1.4 (b) an 
d (d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: MFA Head of Ukraine and Moldova Division 
Dainius Zickevicius emphasized to Embassy February 2 two 
points regarding Lithuanian policy toward Ukraine: first, the 
GOL considers it a victory in and of itself that the first 
round of the Presidential election corresponded to 
international standards; and second, regardless of the result 
of the February 7 run-off, Lithuania will remain a strategic 
partner to Ukraine and the GOL will actively support its 
European and Euro-Atlantic integration.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (C) Zickevicius said the GOL is not forecasting a winner 
but if current Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko prevails, he 
predicts an end to a period of political instability in 
Ukraine.  If Tymoshenko loses, she will no doubt lead a 
powerful coalition in opposition to the new president, Viktor 
Yanukovych.  Zickevicius also speculated that if Yanukovych 
does win, he may call a parliamentary election as early as 
May 2010 in an attempt to bolster his power.  He added that 
Yanukovych would have very little to lose with such a move 
because once elected, he would already be facing a potent 
opposition. 
 
¶3. (C) Zickevicius also confirmed media reports that the 
Lithuanian embassy in Kyiv contacted Yanukovych's campaign 
headquarters and requested that the campaign publicly deny 
the false allegations that election monitors from Georgia, 
Lithuania, and Poland intend to destabilize the situation in 
Ukraine following a Yanukovych victory.   A spokesman for 
Yanukovych reciprocated by labeling the Lithuanian request a 
"provocation," without providing any explanation. 
Zickevicius stressed that the GOL and its embassy in Kyiv 
will abstain from further actions or comments in regard to 
this election run-off.  They have no interest in getting 
involved in this campaign or being part of any election story. 
 
¶4. (C) Comment: Our conversation with Zickevicius indicated 
that Lithuania views the Ukraine election very much in terms 
of how it would affect the future of Yulia Tymoshenko -- if 
she wins, she will be President; if she loses, she will lead 
a powerful opposition.  The Lithuanians view her as a more 
practical and pragmatic politician than Yanukovych both in 
dealings with Russia and Euro-Atlantic institutions.  The 
overall thrust of our discussion revealed the Lithuanian view 
(or hope) that the future of Ukraine inevitably lies in the 
west, not the east, even if Viktor Yanukovych is elected 
President. 
LEADER