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C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 000099 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2020 
TAGS: PREL ETRD PINR MARR TU SY LE
SUBJECT: PM HARIRI SETS SIGHTS ON TURKEY AS REGIONAL 
MODERATOR 
 
REF: ANKARA 73 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 
1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri and his 
aides explained that Lebanon was seeking "strategic 
cooperation" with Turkey following the PM's January 10-12 
visit to Ankara and Istanbul.  Turkish diplomats in Beirut 
confirmed that the Lebanon and Turkey signed six agreements, 
including visa waiver and military cooperation agreements, to 
boost trade between the two countries.  PM Hariri believes 
that Turkey's support and influence helped make possible his 
December visit to Syria, and he advised that Turkey could 
play a key balancing role in the region.  Some Lebanese 
believe that Turkey's outreach to Lebanon causes some 
discomfort for Syria and Iran, and most welcome its 
moderating influence.  End summary. 
 
AGREEMENTS TO BOOST TRADE 
------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Lebanon was seeking strategic cooperation with Turkey, 
Nader Hariri, Chief of Staff (and cousin) to PM Saad Hariri, 
told polchief on January 14.  The Turks, seeing the door to 
Europe closing before them, were redirecting their efforts to 
playing a larger political and economic role to the east, 
Hariri assessed.  "They clearly want to be involved 
regionally," Hariri added, pointing to recent Turkish success 
in strengthening relationships with Egypt, Syria, and Jordan. 
 During PM Hariri's January 10-12 visit to Ankara and 
Istanbul, the response was "very enthusiastic" from Turkish 
officials, Hariri noted.  He played up Turkish PM Recep 
Tayyip Erdogan's comment during a joint press conference 
January 11 that Syrian President Bashar al-Asad should visit 
Lebanon.  Hariri observed pointedly that even the Syrians saw 
the benefits of a Turkish role in the region. 
 
¶3. (C) PM Hariri's three-day visit led to six agreements in a 
variety of areas that would drastically increase the volume 
of trade between the two countries, Nader Hariri explained. 
Sukru Komit, Turkish DCM in Beirut, confirmed to poloffs that 
the agreements signed during the visit included a bilateral 
visa waiver agreement, a military cooperation agreement that 
allows for training exchanges and military equipment 
purchases, and sectoral cooperation agreements on health, 
agriculture, forestry and maritime issues.  The parties also 
reached a tentative agreement to sell 250 megawatts of 
Turkey's excess electricity supply to Lebanon, Komit said, if 
transmission through Syria could be negotiated.  Komit 
explained that the military agreement, in particular, was a 
priority for both countries to establish a legal framework 
for military cooperation.  During the 2007 Nahr el-Barid 
crisis, the Turks were constrained from providing significant 
military assistance by the lack of an agreement, Komit said. 
The two sides also initiated plans to establish a direct 
ferry line from the southern Turkish port of Mersin to 
Beirut. 
 
HARIRI COUNTING ON THE TURKS 
---------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) PM Hariri explained to visiting U.S. Special Envoy for 
Middle East Peace George Mitchell on January 19 that it was 
partially "because of Turkish support" that he was able to 
travel to Damascus and meet with Syrian President Bashar 
al-Asad as an equal.  Hariri, known for his close ties with 
the Saudi government, emphasized that Turkey's positive 
relationships with Syria and Israel were good for the whole 
Middle East region.  Turkey could be a "natural moderator" 
and was imbued with additional credibility because the ruling 
Islamist AKP party was participating in a secular government, 
PM Hariri reasoned.  He added that Turkey presented a 
"balance" between the Islamic and Arab worlds and countered 
Iran's political and economic influence throughout the 
region.  As a result, PM Hariri encouraged the U.S. to 
support Turkish efforts in the region. 
 
¶5. (C) Lebanon and Syria are "competing" with each other for 
Turkish cooperation, Komit assessed.  Several weeks prior to 
 
Hariri's visit to Ankara, he said, Turkish officials had 
visited Damascus and concluded 51 bilateral agreements.  One 
week after Hariri's return to Lebanon, the Lebanese press 
reported that the GOL and the GOT would sign an additional 53 
agreements in summer 2010 during the expected visit of 
Turkish PM Erdogan to Beirut in July.  Komit clarified that 
it was not yet determined how many agreements would be signed 
in the future, although he anticipated there would be more. 
Turkey's approach to the Middle East, Komit stressed, was a 
direct outgrowth of Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's 
foreign policy vision that Turkey should focus on its 
neighboring countries, at least as much as on Europe 
(reftel).  To that end, the GOT believed that the various 
tracks of the regional peace process (Israel-Palestine, 
Israel-Syria, Lebanon-Syria) needed to move in parallel and 
address key issues, including Ghajar and Shebaa Farms in 
Lebanon, Komit said. 
 
SYRIA, IRAN UNEASY WITH 
TURKISH-LEBANESE RELATIONSHIP 
----------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) The GOL's opening to Turkey is causing some discomfort 
in Lebanon, Lebanese journalist Sarkis Naoum commented to 
poloffs on January 26.  Naoum agreed with Hariri's view that 
Turkey has widespread appeal for the region, but the depth of 
the relationship with the GOL, even at this early stage, is 
worrying Syria.  Syria, he argued, never wants to see another 
powerful player in Lebanon that might undercut its own 
influence.  Moreover, the warming Syrian-Lebanese 
relationship is also contributing to Hizballah's -- and by 
extension, Iran's -- unease, Naoum asserted.  While Turkey 
and Lebanon may have inked bilateral agreements, the 
broadening of the bilateral relationship has larger regional 
implications, he believed. 
 
¶7. (C) Comment: PM Hariri and his aides were clearly pleased 
with the outcome of the visit to Turkey.  The PM, in 
particular, views Turkish support as one of his strongest 
pillars to lean on as he develops as a national leader and 
defines his role in the regional context.  Lebanon's 
sectarian leaders have historically called on external 
parties (Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Iran among them) to 
influence domestic and foreign policy.  Turkey's measured 
emphasis on trade ties and its role as a regional moderator 
have made it a welcome presence in most Lebanese political 
circles. 
SISON