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DE RUEHGB #0168/01 0231003
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P 231003Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6245
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000168 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2020 
TAGS: PGOV KISC KCRM IZ
SUBJECT: BAGHDAD AREA REACTIONS TO PRE-ELECTORAL 
DE-BA'ATHIFICATION 
 
REF: BAGHDAD 0136 
 
Classified By: Baghdad PRT Team Leader Tom Lynch for reasons 1.4 (b) an 
d (d) 
 
¶1.  (U) This is a Baghdad PRT message. 
 
¶2.  (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT:  Two IFND (MP Salih al-Mutlaq's 
party) and one INM member of the Baghdad Provincial Council 
told the PRT January 18 that VPOTUS' engagement regarding the 
de-Ba'athification review of electoral candidates was welcome 
and the U.S. is right to support fair elections.  They said 
the disqualification process was illegal.  They see an 
Iranian hand seeking to prevent true elections.  Baghdad 
local politicians appear to be polarized, with Sunnis 
interpreting de-Ba'athification as an effort to discourage 
Sunni voting.  Most Shi'a contacts were supportive of the 
ban, saying that Ba'athists should not be allowed any role. 
Conversations so far suggest the effort to ban former 
Ba'athist politicians will not seriously impact Sunni turnout 
in Baghdad in the upcoming election and may even serve to 
galvanize Sunnis to vote.  Sunni and Shi'a politicians alike 
believe that disgruntled Sunni voters will be galvanized to 
turn to Ayad Allawi's Iraqiyya Alliance.  END SUMMARY AND 
COMMENT. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
MUTLAQ/ALLAWI PROVINCIAL COUNCIL ALLIES: CRITICAL 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶3.  (C) Three Provincial Council (PC) members -- two from the 
Mutlaq's Iraqi Front for National Dialogue, Abbas Mahdi 
al-Hamdani and Isam Mustafa al-Shahiri (IFND), and one Falah 
Mahmud al-Qaisi (a Shi'a) who is a member of the Iraqi 
National Movement (INM) of Allawi ) criticized the 
disqualification of electoral candidates under the provisions 
of the Accountability and Justice Law to the PRT January 18 
(reftel).  al-Hamdani, a Sunni who ran on Multaq's ticket for 
the PC in January 2009 and now serves as the legal advisor to 
the PC, argued the entire process was illegal.  He says the 
Accountability and Justice Commission (AJC) is not legally 
empowered to make these findings as it had never been 
re-appointed by the Council of Representatives (CoR).  All 
three PC members endorsed the U.S. engagement on behalf of 
fair elections.  While specifics on how exactly the U.S. 
should do this were thin, Hamdani told PRToffs that the 
remarks attributed to VP Biden in the Iraqi press were a big 
hit which sent the right signal at the right moment and got 
people on "the street" talking.  The PC members said this was 
not about individuals, but about controlling the process. 
They also speculated that any prominent person in conflict 
with the Shi'a religious parties would be called a Ba'athist 
and disqualified. 
 
¶4.  (C) The PC members professed to PRToffs they had 
confidence in the Allawi-Mutlaq Iraqiya Alliance's chances, 
with or without de-Ba'athification.  The politicians believe 
Allawi has extremely strong popular support, surprisingly 
even in areas like Sadr City.  They feel also that "everyone 
is fed up" with the big religious parties and their failure 
to deliver services.  The politicians added that the attempt 
at de-Ba'athification appears to be Iran's attempt to prevent 
true elections from occurring in Iraq and thus create a 
failure of true democracy in Iraq.  They repeatedly and 
explicitly linked the success of these national elections 
with the success of the democratic project in Iraq. 
 
¶5.  (C) The Baghdad PC members also noted that the 
de-Ba'athification process has the potential to spark 
violence.  While all three members were at pains to explain 
why they utterly reject political violence, they are each 
from formerly "hot" areas and say that the reality is that 
Qfrom formerly "hot" areas and say that the reality is that 
some people will turn to violence to protest this, especially 
if the election is considered illegitimate.  They observed to 
PRToffs that Iraqi officials who have supported democratic 
process throughout will be hurt by an illegitimate election, 
and noted that if democracy crumbles, they and others like 
them will have no place in Iraq. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
PROVINCIAL COUNCIL LEADERSHIP EXPRESS CONCERNS 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶6.  (C) PC Chairman Kamil al-Zaidi, although a prominent 
member of the PM's Da'wa party, believes that the 
de-Ba'athification controversy is a destructive waste of 
time.  He questions the timing, pointing out that many of 
those on the exclusion list have served in the GOI.  The 
problem, as he sees it, is that the law is being twisted for 
political ends.  In his opinion, "elections are like a garden 
and the citizens should be able to choose their own fruit." 
 
¶7.  (C) Dr. Riyadh al-Adhadh, Deputy PC Chair, is a long-time 
prominent Sunni politician from Adhamiyah.  As a member of 
the Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP), he is in direct competition 
for votes with the secular Mutlaq group.  Despite this, he 
described the move as illegitimate and following "no 
parameters."  He cited the number of sitting ex-Ba'athist CoR 
members and members accused of serious human rights 
violations.  That said, he did not think that the 
disqualifications would delegitimize the elections or 
discourage voter turnout. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
BAGHDAD SUNNIS CRITICAL OF DE-BA'ATHIFICATION 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) Sunni Qada (district) Council members told ePRT Team 
Leaders in Baghdad that de-Ba'athification will have a 
negative impact on the political process, national 
reconciliation, and the upcoming election.  The Qada Council 
members accused the AJC of following the dictates of the GOI, 
"especially the Prime Minister." They indicated that if this 
is meant as a ploy to discourage Sunni participation in the 
elections, it will fail.  Mutlaq's followers will turn to the 
Allawi's Al Iraqiya list. They also believe the Governments 
of Iraq and Iran are jointly responsible for politicizing the 
Ba'athist issue, and for seeking to push Sunnis out of the 
political process -- or at least to marginalize them.  In 
that endeavor, a Sunni politician claimed, Shi'a politicians 
are cooperating with Kurdish politicians "because the Shi'a 
will give the Kurds what the Sunnis would not."  In addition 
the Sunni politicians in Baghdad welcomed reports of Vice 
President Biden's recent engagement with senior GOI officials 
to oppose the disqualifications, and urged a sustained USG 
effort to oppose GOI efforts unfairly to disqualify 
candidates on political/sectarian grounds. 
 
------------------------------------- 
SHI,A MAINLY SUPPORT DISQUALIFICATION 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (C) In conversations with ePRT and PRT Baghdad team 
members, Shi'a politicians were generally but not unanimously 
supportive of the de-Ba,athification effort. 
 
--  Abu Ammar, Mahmudiyah Qada Council Chairman, member of 
the Daawa party, stated that disqualifying Ba'athists is in 
the interest of the Iraqi people because allowing Ba'athists 
to participate in the process (or remain in office) allows 
them to "spoil" the process; 
--  Abu Ammar added that Maliki is being unfairly blamed; 
members of his own State of Law coalition, such as Defense 
Minister Abdul Qadir al-Obeidi, had also been disqualified by 
the AJC. (NOTE: al-Obeidi was later removed from the 
disqualification list); 
--  Yaqub Yusif al-Bakhati, Chairman of the Rashid District 
Council, a Shi'a, and a State of Law candidate advised the 
PRT that disqualification is a reasonable means to keep 
Ba'athists out of positions which they could use to subvert 
the political process as they seek to regain power; 
--  al-Bakthati also indicated that banning Mutlaq will not 
seriously impact Sunni turnout as Sunnis have other options, 
including Allawi. 
 
¶10.  (C) Baghdad Mayor Dr. Saber al-Essawi, Shi'a (ISCI), 
told the PRT January 11 he knew Mutlaq in the nineties when 
he was "just a businessman."  The Mayor expressed skepticism 
of Mutlaq's alleged Ba'athism.  (COMMENT: The explanation may 
be complex but it is interesting that Baghdad's rival 
principal local leaders point the same way on Mutlaq. END 
COMMENT:) 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶11.  (C) These conversations do not suggest the effort to ban 
former Ba'athist politicians will seriously impact Sunni 
Qformer Ba'athist politicians will seriously impact Sunni 
turnout in Baghdad in the upcoming election and may even 
serve to galvanize Sunnis to vote.  Whatever the outcome of 
the effort to disqualify Mutlaq, his Sunni base in Baghdad 
Province will probably continue to support his Iraqiya 
alliance with Allawi; indeed, Allawi may now even gain votes 
in Baghdad from galvanized Sunni voters.  END COMMENT. 
 
HILL