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S E C R E T ABU DHABI 001067 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2019 
TAGS: PGOVPRELMARRMOPS
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR YOUR VISIT AND ATTENDANCE AT THE 2009 DUBAI 
AIR SHOW 
 
Classified by Ambassador Richard Olson, reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
¶1.  (C) US Embassy Abu Dhabi and US Consulate General Dubai warmly 
welcome your visit to UAE to attend the 2009 Dubai Air Show. 
 
 
 
 
 
------------------------------ 
Air Show Highlights 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (U) The Dubai Air Show is the third largest event of its type and 
is touted by the UAE as the foremost aerospace event in the Middle 
East as well as the fastest growing in the world.  The Dubai Air Show 
is seen by many as a leading indicator of the health of the aviation 
market in the Middle East.  German analytic firm Frost and Sullivan 
predict defense spending in the Middle East may well exceed $100 
billion by 2014 or 11 percent of global arms orders.  Dubai is 
dedicating over one-third of the exhibition space this year to 
defense companies.  The show is expected to attract approximately 900 
exhibitors from up to 50 countries and host 13 pavilions from 
Austria, Belgium, Canada, Florida, France, Germany, Jordan, the 
Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, Ukraine, the UK, and the United States. 
To date distinguished visitors are scheduled to visit the air show 
representing the GCC, Africa, the Levant, West Asia, India, and 
Western nations.  Over 1300 journalists are expected. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Expected high-level UAE participants include:  the Air show 
host, Ruler of Dubai, UAE Vice President, and Prime Minister, 
Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum; the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, 
Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan; President of Dubai Civil Aviation 
Authority His Highness Sheikh Ahmed Bin Saeed al Maktoum; and Chief 
of Staff of the UAE Armed Forces, Lt Gen Hamad Mohammed Thani Al 
Rumaithi.  As in past years, the Air Show provides an excellent 
opportunity to expand bilateral military relations, as well as 
promote U.S. defense and civil aviation interests. 
 
¶4.  (U) The USAF's F-22 is being advertised as the premier military 
aircraft participating in the air show.  Other US military aircraft 
on display include the F-16, F-15E, C-17, WC-130J, E-8C, and B1B. 
The EU will present the Eurofighter, Rafale, and EAD's HAP Tiger 
Helicopter.  China presents the L-15 jet trainer, and Italy the C-27J 
plus the Aermacchi and Alpha jet trainers.  Many commercial aircraft 
from these and other nations will be on hand as well. 
 
------------------------------ 
Escalating Influence 
------------------------------ 
 
¶5.  (C) Over the past five years the UAE has emerged as a regional 
powerhouse, using its financial clout and diplomatic activism to 
expand its influence from North Africa through the Levant to the 
Indian Sub-Continent, and indeed globally in financial circles.  The 
bilateral relationship has been carefully nurtured from a strong 
mil-mil base emerging out of the first Gulf war into a much broader 
relationship in which the full range of USG Agencies work closely 
with Emirati counterparts.  Our trade relations have grown (the UAE 
is our largest export market in the Middle East region) and although 
the UAE, and particularly Dubai, is feeling the pinch of the global 
financial crisis, we have not seen an immediate impact in the 
security field.  Abu Dhabi's oil reserves generally suffice to keep 
defense programs on track, although some discretionary construction 
projects may be slowed down.  In the broader economy, the frenzied 
pace of construction which we saw a year ago has slowed considerably. 
 
------------------------------ 
UAE and the Region 
------------------------------ 
 
¶6.  (S/NF) Iran:  The UAE leadership sees Iran as its primary 
external threat, and one that is existential in nature.  Like the 
 
rest of the international community, the UAE finds the idea of an 
Iran with nuclear weapons unacceptable and thinks this eventuality 
would lead to nuclear arms race in the Middle East.  At least as 
worrying to Emiratis is Iran's aspirations for regional hegemony, 
which it realizes through terrorist proxies (Hizballah, HAMAS, 
possibly underground organizations in the Arab Gulf countries). 
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed (MbZ) is skeptical that Iran can be 
convinced to end its nuclear weapons program, and is not convinced 
that the international community will adopt tough sanctions.  In 
other words, he sees the logic of war dominating the region, and this 
thinking explains his near obsessive efforts to build up his armed 
forces and the Critical National Infrastructure Authority (CNIA). 
 
¶7.  (S) Iraq:  the UAE was the first GCC Country to cancel Saddam era 
debt and to re-establish an embassy.  Other GCC nations followed 
suit.  The country is supportive of Iraqi participation in the GCC+3. 
 Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MbZ) has 
met with PM Maliki and is supportive of the US security agreement 
with Iraq. 
 
¶8.  (S) Afghanistan:  UAE SOF has been quietly deployed as part of 
OEF since 2002, and has recently come out publicly concerning 
contingency operations (UAE is permitting press coverage emphasizing 
a humanitarian mission).  The country plans to deploy SOF aviation 
components to Afghanistan (4 x AH-64 Apache Longbows, 3 x UH-60 
Blackhawks, and 1 x Twin Otter).  The Crown Prince views the Afghan 
deployment as a way of transforming and hardening his forces, but 
also recognizes the political imperative for moderate Arabs to 
publicly support the fight against Al-Qaida and the Taliban. 
Additionally, Emirati ground forces deployed one Mechanized Infantry 
Battalion and a SEEKER 2 UAV to Afghanistan earlier this year to 
provide security support for national elections. 
 
¶9.  (C) Pakistan:  the UAE has taken a leading role in the Friends of 
Pakistan initiative pledging $300 million in assistance at the Tokyo 
Conference.  The Al Nahyan family had a long-standing relationship 
with former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, and this has transitioned 
to support for her husband, Asif Ali Zardari.  Recently the UAE 
donated 14 Puma helicopters to Pakistan via third-party transfer. 
 
 
 
------------------------------ 
Mil-Mil Relations 
------------------------------ 
 
¶10.  (S/NF) The UAE provides critical (not publicized) support for 
several military component commands in the CENTCOM AOR. 
-- Al-Dhafra Air Force Base is the high altitude ISR hub for the AOR, 
and supports 50 percent of aerial refueling in the AOR. 
-- Dubai and Fujairah ports in the Northern Emirates are the 
logistics backbone for the U.S. Fifth Fleet and commercial trade. 
Jebel Ali is the major U.S. military liberty port.  Fujairah port is 
a major trans-shipment hub to support Afghanistan military 
operations. 
-- Minhad Air Base is a critical hub for Coalition/ISAF partners in 
Afghanistan, including the Australians, Dutch, Canadians, Brits and 
Kiwis. 
 
¶11.  (S) The UAE is currently reviewing a request by the U.S. to 
provide U.S. access to Liwa (Safran) Air Base in support of 
contingency operations in Afghanistan.  UAE officials have approved 
the initiation of a site survey.  Additionally, the UAE is 
considering hosting the Regional Integrated Air and Missile Defense 
Center of Excellence.  Initial discussions between AFCENT/CC, Lt Gen 
Hostage, and UAEAF Chief of Staff, Maj Gen Sowaidon have been 
positive.  No decisions have been reached by the country. 
 
¶12.  (C) Security Assistance is a cornerstone of our relationship. 
The UAE is a cash customer with FMS sales in excess of $11 billion. 
Commercial sales have an equivalent value.  An additional $12 billion 
of FMS cases are in development with approximately the same number of 
commercial sales in the works. 
 
-- The UAE recently purchased nine (9) Patriot batteries, and expects 
to move forward on the purchase of THAAD, the first country outside 
the US to purchase the system. 
-- The major FMS/DCS systems are: Hawk, F-16, Weapons (JDAM, 
Hellfire, Maverick, LGB, cluster, HARM, Harpoon), HIMARS, AH-64, 
UH-60 M/L, AOC operating system, Patriot, C-130, CH-47, Shared 
Early Warning (SEW), CENTRIXS, NVGs, land vehicles, and small arms. 
-- The following systems have been requested and are in various 
stages of FMS and DCS development: 3 x THAAD, 24 x RQ8 Firescout, 
4(+2) x C-17 Globemaster, 12 x C-130J, satellites/imagery, 16 x 
CH-47F (4 via DCS), XM-982 Excalibur, XM-1156 PGK, 5000 X GBU-39 
Small Diameter Bomb, E-2D Hawkeye, Boeing Wedgetail, AOC system 
upgrade, Link-16 integration on all appropriate platforms/ground 
facilities, Stinger/Avenger /VMSLP, MRAP, critical national 
infrastructure protection, and Head of State missile ASE. 
-- The UAE maintains an active exercise schedule with U.S. and other 
multi-lateral partners.  They participate in 10-12 U.S. sponsored 
exercises annually which helps assure interoperability 
and builds capability. 
-- The coming year will see a significant plus up in U.S. training to 
meet UAE defense requirements.  An influx of 110 DoD personnel is 
anticipated to support installation and training of FMS systems to 
include Patriot, THAAD, and HIMARS. 
-- A new lease at Piers 60-61 in Jebel Ali was concluded 4 Sep. 
Lease includes fixed 5-year provision for first phase and optional 
4-year follow-on phase.  The real estate involved is a prime corner 
of the Jebel Ali port and keeps USN interests in adjacent areas. 
 
------------------------------ 
Outstanding Opportunity 
for Pol Mil and Mil-to-Mil 
Relations 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶13.  (C) The Dubai Air Show is one of the premier events in the 
Middle East and provides US leaders with the opportunity to interact 
with numerous foreign senior defense officers, government officials, 
and industry chiefs.  This activity is the capstone to several other 
major events occurring in conjunction with the air show and includes 
the Middle East Air Symposium, The Dubai International Air Chiefs 
Conference, and the Middle East Air Forces Coalition Safety 
Conference.  In all it will make for a challenging but extremely 
productive week.  Above all, these activities highlight the ever 
increasing role and growing influence of the UAE within the region. 
As in the past, we anticipate the Dubai Air Show will provide an 
outstanding forum to champion U.S. bilateral relations and to 
showcase defense equipment.  We look forward to seeing you there. 
 
OLSON