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FM AMCONSUL NAHA
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RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO IMMEDIATE 1104
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUALBCC/YOKOTA AB HQ USFJ
RHMFISS/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHMFISS/COMMARCORBASESJAPAN CAMP BUTLER JA
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RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 1187

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NAHA 000063 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP - FO/J 
SECDEF FOR OSD/APSA - GREGSON/MITCHELL/SCHIFFER/HILL/HAMM 
PACOM FOR J00/J01/J5 
USFJ FOR J00/J01/J5 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  9/8/2019 
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MOPS JA
SUBJECT: POST-ELECTION MANEUVERING IN OKINAWA OVER FRF 
 
REF: A. TOKYO 2000 
     ¶B. TOKYO 1987 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Raymond F. Greene, Consul General . 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
¶1.  (C)  SUMMARY:   Okinawa's newly elected Diet delegation, 
encouraged by the local media, is seeking to present a united 
front in calling for the new government to revise the 2006 
agreement to relocate MCAS Futenma to Camp Schwab.   While the 
local chapters of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), People's 
New Party (PNP) and Social Democratic Party (SDP) agree that 
they oppose the existing plan, their views diverge widely on how 
to fix it.   This disunity is likely to make it extremely 
difficult for the DPJ-led Cabinet to formulate an alternative to 
the current realignment package.   The Governor and local 
Ministry of Defense leadership are more concerned that the 
incoming Hatoyama administration will pause the Environmental 
Impact Assessment (EIA) process for the Futenma Replacement 
Facility (FRF) in order to avoid rifts within the coalition. 
Given the tight election calendar in 2010, a delay in processing 
the landfill permit could add significant political risk to the 
relocation program.    The Okinawa Governor has expressed hope 
that the U.S. side will put early pressure on the new government 
to keep to the original timeline so that he can receive the FRF 
landfill permit request well before the next gubernatorial 
election.  END SUMMARY. 
 
OKINAWA'S DIET MEMBERS REACT TO MEDIA BARRAGE 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Okinawa's local dailies (which have a virtual monopoly on 
the print media in this prefecture) have predictably waged a 
vigorous campaign on Okinawa's Diet delegation in the wake of 
last week's Lower House election, calling on them to view their 
victory as a mandate to re-open negotiations on our 2006 
realignment agreement.  The papers have reminded them and the 
public that DPJ leader Yukio Hatoyama campaigned in Okinawa on a 
pledge to respect their views on plans to relocate FRF.   While 
the FRF was not a central issue in any of Okinawa's races, 
incumbent Upper House member/DPJ Okinawa Chapter President 
Shoukichi Kina responded quickly to this pressure, calling on 
Governor Hirokazu Nakaima on September 1 to seek his 
"cooperation" on FRF, and announcing over the weekend that 
Okinawa's DPJ-PNP-SDP and independent Diet members had formed a 
new cross-party faction (the "Urunokai") to lobby their 
respective parties to review the bilateral realignment 
agreements.  (Note: Securing the Governor's cooperation is key, 
because the DPJ included in its campaign rhetoric on the FRF a 
condition that renegotiations would be at the request of 
Okinawa.   As long as Nakaima remains committed to the existing 
plan, the DPJ can absolve itself of its pre-election promises. 
End Note.) 
 
IN REALITY, NEW "URUNOKAI" DEEPLY DIVIDED OVER FRF 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶3. (C) While the Okinawa media are emphasizing the solidarity of 
Okinawa's Diet members, the Consulate's political contacts say 
that Okinawa's normally byzantine political landscape has become 
more dynamic since Sunday's election as leading local DPJ, PNP, 
and SDP seek to fill the local power vacuum left by the LDP's 
defeat.  These fissures have been particularly evident over the 
future of the FRF.  The leader of Okinawa's local PNP chapter, 
Hiroshi Goya, commented to the Consulate on September 8 that 
despite the public show of unity, Okinawa's new Urunokai failed 
to reach consensus on the central question of whether MCAS 
Futenma should be relocated within Okinawa or outside it.   The 
SDP is the only coalition party unambiguously and ideologically 
opposed to keeping the FRF in Okinawa, with the Okinawa's 
DPJ/PNP Diet members split into three rival camps: 
 
-- "CLEAN" DPJ OKINAWA MEMBERS OPPOSED TO FRF:  The first camp 
is led by DPJ Okinawa President Kina, who has led local calls to 
relocate MCAS Futenma out of Okinawa.   Interestingly, Chobin 
Zukeran, the newly-elected representative for Okinawa District 4 
who has allied with Kina on this issue, told the Consul General 
September 6 that their position is not driven by ideological 
opposition to a U.S. military presence, but by fears that FRF 
construction "largess" would tarnish DPJ's clean image.   While 
aligned with the SDP on the outcome, Zukeran expressed firm 
opposition to the SDP's efforts to limit the Hatoyama Cabinet's 
flexibility by including the FRF in the coalition agreement. 
 
-- REMAINING DPJ MEMBERS PRAGMATIC:  Longstanding inter-party 
rivalries are preventing Kina from unifying Okinawa's relatively 
 
NAHA 00000063  002 OF 003 
 
 
young DPJ contingent under his leadership.  Notably, 
newly-elected Lower House member Denny Tamaki, who represents 
the northern Okinawan district that would host the FRF, refused 
to join Kina's post-election call on Governor Nakaima.   Tamaki 
may also be responding to a key constituency that supports a 
continued U.S. base presence: Okinawa's base worker labor union 
(zenchuro) was a key factor in his victory.  Tamaki also 
reportedly enjoys close ties to the prefecture's relatively 
powerful PNP camp. 
 
-- PRO-BUSINESS PNP OKINAWA SUPPORTS RELOCATION WITHIN THE 
PREFECTURE:  Former LDP Diet member Mikio Shimoji was returned 
for a fourth-term as a PNP representative in this election; 
while Shimoji has joined Kina in publicly rejecting relocating 
MCAS Futenma at Camp Schwab, PNP Okinawa Chapter President Goya 
told ConGen Naha September 8 that Shimoji still favors 
relocating MCAS Futenma within Okinawa prefecture given how 
critical FRF construction contracts will be to Okinawa's 
economy.  Shimoji is aligned with DPJ Vice President Seiji 
Maehara's conservative group in seeking a "pragmatic" approach 
to renegotiating the realignment package. 
 
GOVERNOR NAKAIMA WARNS OF CONSEQUENCES OF INACTION 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶4. (C) Most observers believe that DPJ Okinawa and its allies 
will be unable to bridge their differences on FRF and are 
looking to Tokyo for direction.   RENGO Union Federation Okinawa 
President Nobumasu Nakamura, for example, predicts the FRF will 
remain a divisive issue among coalition leaders in Okinawa.   He 
explained to ConGen Naha poloffs on the eve of the election that 
Okinawa's labor movement has never been able to put the FRF to a 
vote.   Unlike SOFA revision, which has strong and universal 
political appeal, Okinawa's unions are divided on the FRF, with 
the base workers' union increasingly supportive of keeping the 
FRF within the prefecture. 
 
¶5. (C)  Given these rifts, supporters of the realignment plan 
are worried less about the DPJ renegotiating the plan than local 
DPJ and PNP efforts to kick the issue down the road by placing a 
"freeze" on the FRF EIA in order to review of all FY10 budget 
submissions related to Okinawa.  Okinawa Defense Bureau Director 
General Ro Manabe told the Consul General that efforts by 
Washington and Tokyo over the past year have convinced most 
Okinawans that realignment implementation efforts have turned an 
important corner.   Losing this momentum, he added, is the 
biggest political risk factor facing the realignment package. 
Governor Nakaima expressed similar concerns during a September 4 
meeting with the incoming Consul General.  Privately, the 
Governor's senior advisors have been even franker, warning in 
separate meetings this past week that if we lose the momentum 
that we currently have on the FRF's environmental impact 
assessment now it may not be easily recovered given that Okinawa 
will holds its gubernatorial election in November 2010. 
 
¶6. (C)  Both Governor Nakaima and ODB DG Manabe urged the U.S. 
side to seek early assurances from the incoming government that 
it will not delay the EIA process.  Governor Nakaima suggested 
that Secretary of Defense Gates' reported October visit would be 
a good opportunity for the DPJ government to walk back its 
rhetoric on the FRF.    The Governor pledged to do his part to 
complete the EIA and landfill process by next summer, but said 
that he is powerless if the incoming DPJ decides to suspend the 
process. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶7. (C)  Disunity within the incoming coalition and continued 
support from the Governor for the existing plan will limit the 
incoming administration's ability to articulate an alternative 
proposal on the FRF.  Nevertheless, inserting a damaging delay 
into the implementation process in order to hear out all of the 
different voices may be tempting.  A strong, early signal from 
the U.S. side on the importance of maintaining the EIA/landfill 
timeline will be helpful in keeping the process on track. 
Japanese officials are already planning to hold a Cabinet-level 
Okinawa Consultative Committee (OCC) meeting as early as October 
on the assumption that the DPJ does not freeze the program. 
Ideally, this would provide an important opportunity for the 
Governor to convey Okinawa's support for the existing plan to 
the new government, providing the Hatoyama Cabinet with a 
 
NAHA 00000063  003 OF 003 
 
 
face-saving way out of its campaign promises to the Okinawan 
public. 
GREENE