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RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 8866

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 SHANGHAI 000362 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/CM, H 
STATE PASS USTR FOR STRATFORD, WINTER, MCCARTIN, ALTBACH 
DOC FOR ITA/MAC - DAS KASOFF, MELCHER, SZYMANSKI, COUCH, LEHRMAN 
TREASURY FOR OASIA - DOHNER/HAARSAGER 
MANILA FOR ADB USED 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EINV ENRG PREL OVIP BOEHNER JOHN CH
SUBJECT: STIMULUS BOOSTING GROWTH, SHANGHAI ANALYST TELLS CODEL 
BOEHNER 
 
(U) This message is sensitive but unclassified.  Not for 
distribution outside USG channels. 
 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  China's economy is likely to achieve the 
Central Government's 8 percent growth target this year, a 
Shanghai-based investment bank analyst told CODEL Boehner on 
August 11.  However, much of the growth is a result of Beijing's 
economic stimulus measures, which are non-transparent and 
potentially could lead to large non-performing loans in the 
medium term.  The analyst also noted concerns about China's high 
unemployment and high public debt.  End summary. 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) A six-member Congressional delegation led by House 
Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) met with Standard Chartered 
Bank China Research Head Stephen Green August 11.  The 
delegation also included Dan Boren (D-OK), Jo Bonner (R-AL), 
Dave Camp (R-MI), Tom Latham (R-IA), and Greg Walden (R-OR).  In 
addition to the session with Standard Chartered's Green, the 
delegation visited the Semiconductor Manufacturing International 
Corporation (SMIC) and met with members of the American Chamber 
of Commerce in Shanghai. 
 
 
 
-------------------------------------- 
 
 
China's Economy is Picking Up Speed... 
 
 
-------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) Green cited several alternative indicators to support 
his main point that China's economy is taking a turn for the 
better.  Year-on-year growth in the freight index, for example, 
fell to negative 10 percent in early 2009, but is now on an 
upward trend, reaching 5 percent growth by May.  The turnaround, 
given China's continuing negative export growth, has been 
especially clear in domestic container activity: movement of 
containers through inland river ports rose almost 30 percent 
year-on-year in May, while that of coastal ports remained in the 
negative 10 percent range. 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) Green said electricity production and Standard 
Chartered's industrial output index also indicate the recovery 
is underway.  However, he noted there is a divergence in these 
two series.  (Comment: Other analysts have noted that 
electricity production may no longer be an accurate indicator of 
Chinese economic activity.  End comment.)  While year-on-year 
electricity production growth fell sharply negative in October 
2008 and remained negative until May 2009 -- a U-shaped 
recession -- Green's analysis of industrial activity shows a 
more V-shaped recession, with a quick recovery in February 2009. 
 According to Green, at one point there was a 20 percent gap 
between electricity production and industrial activity. 
 
 
 
SHANGHAI 00000362  002 OF 004 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) According to his analysis of other non-traditional data 
sets such as freight activity or electricity production, Green 
said he is confident the Chinese government will be able to meet 
its 8 percent GDP growth target by the end of the year. 
Standard Chartered's forecast is 8.5 percent GDP growth this 
year, ticking up to 8.9 percent in 2010 as a result of 
continuing stimulus measures, and then pulling back to 8.1 
percent in 2011.  Green described these forecast figures as 
conservative compared with some other investment banks, which 
project a return to double-digit growth by 2010. 
 
 
 
---------------------------------------- 
 
 
...Thanks to Beijing's Stimulus Spending 
 
 
---------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Seventy to eighty percent of China's recent growth is 
a result of Beijing's economic stimulus measures, estimated 
Green.  However, he cautioned that it is difficult to know 
exactly because the spending under the stimulus plan is not well 
defined.  Beijing first announced a RMB 4 trillion 
(approximately USD 587 billion) package in October, and local 
governments then submitted wish lists of over RMB 20 trillion. 
Over the past several months, said Green, the Central Government 
approved tranches of projects likely to amount to significantly 
more than RMB 4 trillion. 
 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU) In addition, said Green, approximately half of the RMB 
7 trillion (approximately USD 1 trillion) in new bank lending 
during the first half of the year contributed to stimulus 
projects.  In the medium to long term -- starting in five years 
or so -- about half of the new lending from banks over the past 
several months is likely to go bad, said Green.  The banks at 
present feel that they have a government guarantee on these 
loans, since they were responding to government pressure to lend 
to stimulus-related projects.  However, said Green, no one knows 
what will happen when the projects are completed and they prove 
not to be economically viable, with little or no return on 
investment. 
 
 
 
--------------------------------- 
 
 
Social Problems:  Unemployment... 
 
 
--------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Green said that his best guess is that the urban 
jobless rate is currently around 10 percent of the total urban 
workforce.  He said that he has no confidence in the official 
 
SHANGHAI 00000362  003 OF 004 
 
 
unemployment statistics, which he characterized as "the worst 
numbers out there" because of their failure to account for 
unemployment in the migrant worker population.  (Note:  On 
August 4 the State Council Information Office announced that 
registered urban unemployment in the first half of the year 
remained stable at 4.3 percent.  End note.)  The stimulus 
package will not necessarily improve the employment situation 
because there is a mismatch between the export-processing jobs 
lost in the downturn and the jobs created by the stimulus 
program, Green said.  For example, export processing jobs are 
usually held by young women aged 18-25 years, but few of these 
would be able to transition to working on infrastructure 
projects. 
 
 
 
----------------------- 
 
 
...And High Public Debt 
 
 
----------------------- 
 
 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Green told CODEL Boehner Chinese interlocutors often 
express concerns about the size of the U.S. budget deficit and 
overall U.S. government debt, but he responds to these concerns 
by pointing out China's budget and debt numbers are actually 
closer to those of the United States than most people realize. 
For instance, China's deficit this year is around 4 percent of 
China's GDP.  Since most of the economic stimulus financing is 
being routed through the banking system rather than the national 
budget, however, the deficit also should take into account the 
Chinese bank-financed stimulus.  In this case, Green stated, the 
percentage of GDP rises to 9 or 10 percent, very close to the 
U.S. deficit numbers as a percent of U.S. GDP.  Likewise, 
China's public debt is approximately 20 percent of China's GDP, 
but if contingent liabilities -- including the likely 
non-performing loans resulting from the stimulus program -- are 
included, China's public debt rises to 80 or 90 percent of GDP, 
comparable to U.S. figures. 
 
 
 
------------------------------- 
 
Businesses Riding Stimulus Wave 
 
------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) Businessmen supported Stephen Green's conclusions, 
telling CODEL Boehner the stimulus package clearly has boosted 
growth in the short-term but may be harmful in the long-run. 
Officials at the Semiconductor Manufacturing International 
Corporation (SMIC) said production in SMIC's Shanghai factory 
dropped to a low point of 30-40 percent of capacity by the 
beginning of 2009.  During the first half of the year, however, 
SMIC has benefited from a surge in China's domestic spending as 
a result of the stimulus, and the factory is now producing at 70 
percent capacity.  An American construction company 
representative told Congressman Bonner that many small 
 
SHANGHAI 00000362  004 OF 004 
 
 
infrastructure companies also benefited directly from the 
stimulus package.  Also in line with Green's analysis, a 
corporate lawyer cautioned, however, that the surge in bank 
loans is not sustainable and could lead to large numbers of 
non-performing loans. 
 
 
 
------- 
 
 
Comment 
 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶11. (SBU) Stephen Green is a trusted, long-time contact of the 
Consulate.  In his analysis, he tends to rely heavily on 
statistics, and thus he has wrestled with the many thorny 
questions raised by China's economic statistics reporting 
system, which clearly resonated with the visiting Congressional 
delegation.  His forward-looking critique and perspective on 
Beijing's stimulus measures emphasized the importance of 
utilizing non-traditional data sets in order to compensate for 
unreliable Chinese figures. 
 
 
 
¶12. (SBU) CODEL staff cleared this report. 
CAMP