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Viewing cable 09KINGSTON551, JAMAICA: IMF NEGOTIATIONS IGNITE DEBATE,

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09KINGSTON551 2009-07-17 16:52 2011-08-30 01:44 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Kingston
VZCZCXRO0392
PP RUEHGR
DE RUEHKG #0551/01 1981652
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 171652Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7868
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KINGSTON 000551 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR (RALVARADO)(VDEPIRRO)(WSMITH) 
WHA/EPSC (MROONEY) (FCORNEILLE) 
EEB/IFD/OMA 
WHA/PPC (JGONZALEZ) 
INR/RES (RWARNER) 
INR/I (SMCCORMICK) 
SANTO DOMINGO FOR FCS AND FAS 
TREASURY FOR ERIN NEPHEW 
EXPORT IMPORT BANK FOR ANNETTE MARESH 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: ECON ENRG EFIN EINV ETRD PGOV PREL IADB
IBRD, IMF, TRYS, JM, XL 
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: IMF NEGOTIATIONS IGNITE DEBATE, 
ECONOMIC FIRE STORM CONTINUES 
 
REF: A. KINGSTON 521 
B. KINGSTON 517 
C. KINGSTON 422 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.  A Government of Jamaican 
(GOJ) delegation led by Don Wehby, Minister Without 
Portfolio in the Ministry of Finance, visited Washington 
the week of July 6 to intensify negotiations with the 
International Monetary Fund (IMF).  The GOJ's failure to 
reach most of its economic targets for the first three 
months of the fiscal year is adding a sense of urgency to 
the negotiations.  The situation is becoming so dire that 
in May, for the first time in over a decade, Jamaica did 
not generate a primary surplus; the GOJ had to borrow 
funds just to repay interest on its debt. 
 
2. (SBU) The absence from the delegation of Minister of 
Finance Audley Shaw and Central Bank Governor Derrick 
Lattibeaudiere was criticized by the opposition Peoples' 
National Party (PNP), which hoped to score political 
points after being defeated in two major by-elections 
this year. 
After nearly a year of public discussions, most Jamaicans 
are now resigned to the imminent return to the IMF 
agreement, even though PM Golding continues to speak of 
it in abstract terms.  An IMF arrangement appears 
imperative, not just for the financial support, but 
particularly because it will force the GOJ to address 
some of the structural changes required for the country 
to get out of its economic quagmire.  End Summary and 
Analysis. 
 
GOJ Team Visits IMF 
------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) The week of July 6 Wehby led a team of senior 
GOJ officials to accelerate negotiations with the IMF for 
a new borrowing arrangement to shore up the country's 
weakening external position (reftel A).  The team 
included members from the Ministry of Finance, the Bank 
of Jamaica (Central Bank) and the Planning Institute of 
Jamaica.  The discussions, which are at an advanced 
stage, were expected to reach consensus on a number of 
issues, including the amount of funding required to 
address the balance of payments (BOP) fallout, as well as 
the measures Jamaica would adopt to address the country's 
chronic economic woes. 
 
4. (SBU) In particular, the IMF was interested in 
Jamaica's solution to the country's gargantuan debt stock 
(equal to nearly 110 percent of GDP), and by extension 
persistent fiscal deficits and anemic economic growth. 
Wehby told Econoff prior to his departure that the IMF 
was specifically interested in the GOJ's plan for 
improving tax collection. 
 
Absence Ignites Political Storm 
------------------------------- 
 
5. (SBU) The opposition PNP drew attention to the fact 
that both Shaw and Lattibeaudiere did not attend, 
igniting speculation and public debate on the reasons for 
their absence.  The move comes against the background of 
Wehby's pending departure from the GOJ and his return to 
the private sector at the end of July (reftel B).  Former 
Finance Minister Omar Davies maintained it was 
unforgivable for Shaw and Lattibeaudiere to be absent 
from such critical discussions.  Davies said the move was 
irresponsible, given that Wehby was on his way out of 
government.  (Note: It was suggested to Emboffs that 
Shaw, the consummate politician, had stayed behind to 
shore up support for a colleague contesting a municipal 
by-election. End Note.) 
 
6. (SBU) Opposition Spokesman on Industry and Commerce, 
Mark Golding, speaking to a partisan crowd largely 
opposed to a return to the IMF, said that Shaw's absence 
from the IMF negotiations and his limited role in 
preparing the April 2009 budget shows he lacks the 
technical competence to manage his portfolio in a time of 
crisis. (Note: The PNP administration of the 1990s broke 
off its borrowing relationship with the IMF, citing the 
harsh conditionalities.  Reftel B. End Note). 
 
Shaw and Latibeaudiere Hit Back 
-------------------------------- 
 
7. (SBU) In an official press release, Shaw chastised the 
PNP for criticizing his handling of the IMF negotiations. 
He said he did not need to be involved in the discussions 
since they are not at a decision-making stage.  Prime 
Minister (PM) Bruce Golding noted that Shaw traveled to 
Haiti on July 16 to meet with the Luis Alberto Moreno the 
head of the IDB, to "discuss commitments that are 
important to Jamaica."  PM Golding said, "We have to keep 
the dialogue going, because when we are passing through 
this kind of fire storm, we need every friend that we can 
find who is prepared to offer assistance."  Latibeaudiere 
also rejected as "laughable" any suggestion that his 
absence from the meeting indicated a rift within the 
government regarding IMF talks.  He said he has been 
involved in discussions with the IMF for the last several 
months through videoconferencing and telephone calls. 
 
Economic Woes Intensify 
----------------------- 
 
8. (SBU) Even as both parties engage in a war of words 
over IMF meetings, economic conditions continue to 
worsen, with the country generating a primary deficit 
(revenues minus recurrent expenditure net of interest 
payments) for the month of May.  This is a sign that the 
country's gargantuan stock of debt is becoming 
unsustainable amid declining output and falling revenues. 
For the first quarter of 2009, economic output declined 
by 3.1 percent, due largely to a fall out in the goods 
producing sectors (except agriculture), led by bauxite 
and alumina.  This is expected to precipitate an almost 
USD 1 billion fallout in export earnings for 2009. 
 
9. (SBU) To make matters worse, there has been a 17 
percent decline in remittances for the first six months 
of the year.  Remittances are heavily relied upon by many 
Jamaicans for the purchase of basic necessities such as 
food, rent, and education fees.  This decline is expected 
to exacerbate worsening poverty levels.  Data for the 
first two months of the 2009/10 fiscal year also shows 
that the fiscal deficit of USD 250 million is running 
well ahead of target despite a USD 38 million cut in 
expenditures.  This is a troubling development, as it 
means the increased deficit is solely attributable to the 
underperformance in revenues, down USD 62 million.  This 
suggests that the extent of the economic fallout was 
underestimated, and the entire economic framework, thus 
might well be questionable. 
 
IMF Program Vital 
----------------- 
 
10. (SBU) XXXXXXXXXXXX, a senior technocrat at the 
Ministry of Finance, told emboffs that the GOJ did not 
make as much progress as it had intended in Washington, 
but said an IMF program had to be in place within the 
quarter to stem the fiscal slide.  XXXXXXXXXXXX said that 
after intense discussion of the difficult issue of public 
sector downsizing, the IMF team moved closer to the GOJ 
position that the wage-to-GDP ratio was not out of line 
with Jamaica's comparators.  He stated that if teachers, 
who make up almost one fifth of the public sector, had 
not been granted a 50 percent salary hike, the ratio 
would have been even more acceptable.  XXXXXXXXXXXX said that 
the IMF team is expected in Jamaica in late July to 
finalize discussions on the solution to the debt problem. 
 
11. (SBU) PM Golding said in a press release on July 16 
that whether Jamaica goes to the International Monetary 
Fund (IMF) or not, it will not be business as usual, 
because the country is facing serious financial problems 
that will require an unaccustomed level of discipline. 
(Comment: PM Golding continues to talk of serious 
financial challenges facing the country, but seems 
reluctant to speak frankly to the public about the 
country's imminent return to the IMF)  End Comment. 
 
Interest Rates Must Fall! 
------------------------ 
 
12. (SBU) XXXXXXXXXXXX said the GOJ and the IMF have grave 
concerns about the country's gargantuan debt stock and 
the attendant high interest rates.  He said based on the 
discussions a solution must be found to this problem 
before an agreement can be reached.  with an estimated 
annualized inflation rate of about 10 percent for 2009, 
real interest rates are in the region of 11 percent.  He 
said the sticking point was whether an interest rate 
reduction could be negotiated or one would have to be 
imposed: an imposition had inherent risks, creating 
unease among domestic creditors, on whom the GOJ will 
still depend for new debt, and could initiate a run on 
the local currency. 
 
13. (SBU) Although PM Golding has been approached by 
domestic creditors interested in negotiating a deal, 
nothing concrete has materialized to date.  Last week, 
during a meeting the country's domestic creditors, he 
stated his desire for the GOJ to reduce interest rates. 
But despite the creditors public posturing, it appears 
only U.S.-based Citibank is willing to make concessions. 
XXXXXXXXXXXX is doubtful that other financial institutions 
will be willing to voluntarily make the concessions 
needed for an interest rate deal.  When asked about the 
magnitude of the concession being sought, XXXXXXXXXXXX 
suggested that even a 5 percentage point reduction would 
bring much needed fiscal space.  The GOJ would like to 
have a new ceiling on debt at or near a rate of 16 
percent per year in the short term and then hopefully to 
extract further concessions on some of the older debt 
sourced at rates of 18 to 21 percent to bring them in 
line with the new debt ceiling. 
 
ANALYSIS 
-------- 
 
14. (SBU) After nearly a year of public discussions, most 
Jamaicans are now resigned to the imminent return to the 
IMF agreement, even though PM Golding continues to speak 
of it in abstract terms.  Shaw has signaled that an 
agreement is inevitable and Wehby has said flat out, "The 
country has no other choice, but to return to the IMF." 
(Reftel B).  As the country is finding it difficult to 
fund some of its major obligations, some analysts are 
criticizing the GOJ for waiting so long to approach the 
IMF.  An IMF arrangement appears imperative, not just for 
the financial support, but particularly because it will 
force the GOJ to address some of the structural changes 
required for the country to get out of its economic 
quagmire.  End Analysis. 
MOSS