P 101125Z JUL 09
FM AMCONSUL BELFAST
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1508
INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 
NSC WASHINGTON DC
AMEMBASSY DUBLIN PRIORITY 
AMCONSUL BELFAST

C O N F I D E N T I A L BELFAST 000050 
 
 
NOFORN 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/WE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  7/10/2019 
TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI UK EI
SUBJECT: NORTHERN IRELAND DEVOLUTION DELAYED BUT ON TRACK 
 
REF: BELFAST 36 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Daniel F. McNicholas, Acting Consul General, 
Consulate General Belfast, State Department. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
 
¶1. (C/NF) Summary.  Northern Ireland's political leaders, 
together with HMG's Northern Ireland Office, are united in their 
conviction to move forward on the devolution of policing and 
justice.  An attempt by hard-line unionist Jim Allister to 
siphon off support from First Minister Peter Robinson's DUP has 
distracted Robinson from making progress in the short term. 
Robinson faces unflattering comparisons to former UUP leader 
David Trimble from critics and supporters alike, who have urged 
him to maintain focus in the face of this current political 
test.  The primary obstacle to settling policing and justice 
remains nailing down the unknown financial demands that the 
transfer of these powers from Westminster to Stormont will 
create.  Robinson  and other unionist politicians are reluctant 
to set a date for the transfer without a firm and generous HMG 
commitment to cover costs, which could run to the hundreds of 
millions as outstanding legal and medical claims from police 
from the time of the Troubles remain unresolved.  Meetings 
between Robinson, Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness, and 
Prime Minister Gordon Brown are expected to settle the financial 
issue in the coming week. 
 
¶2. (C/NF) Summary con't.  Northern Ireland Secretary Shaun 
Woodward cautioned against pushing Robinson too hard on 
devolution in the current fragile political environment for fear 
that he might "snap or just walk away," leaving a leadership 
vacuum.  Sinn Fein's Gerry Adams shared the view that strong 
unionist leadership was in the interest of both communities and 
necessary for progress to be made.  As the UK general election 
approaches (some time by June 2010) Woodward also voiced concern 
about a sustained British commitment to devolution under a 
Conservative government, opining that Tory leader David Cameron 
was prepared to sacrifice peace for electoral gain, and that the 
Tories were unlikely to be trusted by Sinn Fein as honest 
brokers.  As Northern Ireland moves into the annual Orange Order 
marching season there have been no reports of serious violence 
despite minor incidents of vandalism against Orange halls and 
Catholic churches in County Antrim in a possible bid to escalate 
tensions.  The late June announcement of decommissioning of 
weapons by loyalist paramilitary groups the UVF and Red Hand 
Commando was welcomed as a positive step - while the Ulster 
Defense Association also announced it had begun the 
decommissioning process.  End summary. 
 
¶3. (C/NF) In a series of conversations over the last two weeks 
with Acting Consul General and with a visiting Codel Northern 
Ireland's political leadership expressed a range of views to 
explain the stalled devolution process, the sensitivities 
surrounding finally devolving policing and justice, the 
hard-line threat to First Minister Peter Robinson posed by 
populist unionist politician Jim Allister, and prospects for 
ways forward. 
 
 
DUP Disarray Stalls Devolution 
---------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C/NF) Northern Ireland's process of fully devolving power to 
the Northern Ireland Executive remains stalled over the 
contentious issue of policing and justice.  First Minister Peter 
Robinson's majority Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is still 
reeling from the humiliating defection of many of its bedrock 
supporters to hard-line unionist Jim Allister in the June 4 
European Parliament (EP) elections (ref A).  Allister's 
Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) party siphoned off what many 
political observers here argue were, at least in part, protest 
votes against the DUP's perceived lack of leadership and 
attention to core issues like education, employment, and 
healthcare, as well as a reaction to the Westminster MP expense 
scandal that focused attention on MPs and Members of the 
[Northern Ireland] Legislative Assembly (MLAs) "double-jobbing" 
- i.e. holding ministerial, MLA, and/or MP positions and 
enjoying the respective pay and benefits for these jobs.  In the 
end, the June EP poll returned DUP MEP candidate Diane Dodds 
over incumbent Allister but not without considerable cost to 
what appears to be a deeply-shaken DUP. 
 
 
Jim Allister: Kingmaker or Spoiler? 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C/NF) Comparisons are being drawn by a number of unionist 
and nationalist/republican politicians between Peter Robinson 
and David Trimble (the former Ulster Unionist leader and First 
Minister, who struggled in 2001 for supremacy among unionists 
amidst criticisms by hardliners of his role in negotiating the 
Good Friday Agreement.)  Jim Allister, once a peripatetic member 
of the DUP, is attempting to pull his former party to the more 
hard-line unionist end of Northern Ireland's political spectrum 
- in a move reminiscent of former DUP leader Dr. Ian Paisley 
when he undercut Trimble in search of hard-line unionist 
support.  Allister, a former leader of Loyalist street protests 
denouncing any power-sharing with IRA/Sinn Fein, twice resigned 
from the DUP before creating the TUV in December 2007.  He has 
been critical of Robinson as a "blusterer," and his strong 
showing in the European elections make him a force to be 
reckoned with if the DUP wants to shore up its support among 
hardliners.  For his part, Ian Paisley dismissed Allister's 
showing, saying things would carry on much as they had been in 
unionist politics; "that the people who left the DUP haven't won 
anything." 
 
 
DUP "Nervousness" 
----------------- 
 
¶6. (C/NF) Allister has long been critical of any Sinn Fein/IRA 
role in policing and justice - asking supporters on his website: 
 "If policing and justice powers are devolved Martin McGuinness, 
a man who boasts his role in the IRA, will then have a key role 
in the appointment of senior judges.  Is this what you want?" 
Allister's populist positions appeal to unionists skeptical of a 
Sinn Fein role in two of the most sensitive executive portfolios 
in the province.  Leader of the Conservative/Unionist Party 
(formerly the Ulster Unionist Party, UUP) Sir Reg Empey told us 
that he believed Allister had indeed made an impact; that he had 
become a "kingmaker"; and that the DUP was scared of him. 
Stephen Farry, an MLA from the cross-community Alliance Party 
and its spokesman on justice and finance, echoed what he viewed 
as "DUP nervousness" at the TUV's success and stressed that 
Robinson needed to remain committed to devolution and follow 
through, and not be "looking over his shoulder, like David 
Trimble."  Allister's uncompromising stance, and his relatively 
strong showing in the European election, have certainly 
contributed to Peter Robinson's slow roll on devolution, at 
least while he tries to increase his credibility with unionist 
hardliners - evidenced in part this week by his expected 
intervention to facilitate compromise in at least one of the 
more contentious Orange Order marches in Drumcree, Co. Armagh. 
 
 
 
Smaller Parties Urge Robinson to Move Forward 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C/NF) Progressive Unionist Party (PUP) leader Dawn Purvis 
told us that she was confident that Robinson could "hold things 
together;" that he needed to reflect on the European elections 
and get "back to basics," while rejecting the notion that 
Allister's success translated into withering support for power 
sharing among unionists.  She noted that under the transferrable 
vote system, votes Allister won reverted to the DUP and UUP once 
he was out of the running - evidence that the electorate was 
most likely simply registering its disillusionment with the DUP 
over nepotism in the party, the expenses scandal, and the 
party's mixed messages toward Sinn Fein (making public 
statements critical of SF, while happy enough to be in 
government with them).  The Social Democratic and Labour Party 
(SDLP) policing and justice spokesman Alex Atwood echoed 
Purvis's view, noting that it was in the common interest for 
Robinson to "take the breaks off and move forward;" that he 
should draw confidence from the last elections and press ahead 
with policing and justice. 
 
 
Unknown Policing & Justice Costs a Concern 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶8. (C/NF) Sir Reg Empey indicated that his party has no 
principled objection to devolution of policing and justice but 
is concerned over two points.  First, the party had not been 
involved in any of the discussions on devolution but was now 
expected to support it:  "It's all been the DUP/Sinn Fein behind 
closed doors.  We don't know what deals have been done between 
them...and so we haven't had any discussions of how to handle 
issues if they arise."  Second, Empey, echoing concern shared by 
many unionists, expressed unwillingness to move forward with 
policing and justice while the costs of the new responsibilities 
to be borne by the Executive were unknown.  Fear of budget 
shortfalls in other essential services like healthcare and 
education were foremost in Empey's mind as he pointed to the 
increased cost of policing in Northern Ireland (e.g. conducting 
risk assessments before dispatching police to respond to calls; 
and the need to send 2-3 police cars to respond to routine calls 
since the March murder of Police Service of Northern Ireland 
(PSNI) officer Stephen Carroll by dissident republicans).  Empey 
also cautioned against pushing the devolution of policing and 
justice too soon, particularly with a weak minister at the helm. 
 Doing so, he said, ran the risk of returning to the "bad old 
days."  He expressed a widely-held view that it would be autumn 
at the earliest before any decision on policing and justice 
would be agreed. 
 
 
Alliance Party Leader Ford 
Presumed Justice Minister 
------------------------- 
 
¶9. (C/NF) The Alliance Party's Stephen Farry acknowledged 
widespread speculation that Alliance would, as "the least 
mistrusted party," be expected to put forward a compromise 
candidate for the policing and justice minister position.  Peter 
Robinson confirmed July 8 in the media as "fairly obvious" that 
he would ask Alliance to take on the new post.  Despite 
Alliance's small size, Farry intimated that the party was 
prepared to take on the role provided that it was "given room to 
work" and would not be pressured by Sinn Fein or the DUP; that 
it could count on support from the British, Irish, and U.S. 
governments to "avoid the populism" of Sinn Fein and the DUP; 
and lastly, that it could count on a financial package from 
London to make devolution of policing and justice work. 
Separately, the PUP's Dawn Purvis told us that the deal enabling 
the Alliance Party to provide the minister for policing and 
justice was "done and dusted" and that Alliance had already 
identified a candidate.  (Note:  The speculation is that 
Alliance leader David Ford will be put forward for the post. 
End note). 
 
 
McGuinness with PM Brown: 
No Decisions on Financing but Progress 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶10. (C/NF) Sinn Fein (SF) advisor Leo Green gave Acting CG a 
read out of Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness's June 30 
meeting with Prime Minister Gordon Brown in London.  Sinn Fein 
was disappointed that First Minister Peter Robinson had pulled 
out of the scheduled joint meeting the night before, opting 
instead for a telephone call to Brown on July 1 and his own 
separate meeting on July 7; and Green pointed to Robinson's 
absence as the reason that "no real business was done" 
(particularly discussions of HMG financing of devolved policing 
and justice) during McGuinness's meeting with the prime 
minister.  Despite the First Minister's absence, McGuiness took 
the opportunity to reassert SF's position for establishing a 
firm date for the transfer of policing powers.  McGunness also 
reminded the Prime Minister of HMG's commitment to address 
instances in which unionists were seen to be blocking progress 
on devolution, and made the point that it might soon be 
appropriate for Brown to press Robinson to move forward.  The 
Deputy First Minister also raised other outstanding commitments 
by the British and Irish governments, including a Bill of Rights 
(called for in the Good Friday/Belfast Agreement), the draft of 
which Green indicated was being stalled by unionist parties; 
resolution of the status of OTRs or "On the Runs" - some 200 
cases of individuals who believe they would be arrested and 
charged with pre-1998 conflict-related offenses if they returned 
to Northern Ireland; and pending extradition cases.  Green 
indicated that there were plans for another 
Robinson-McGuinness-Brown meeting in the coming week, but 
expressed frustration with the DUP leadership for backing out of 
agreed meeting arrangements on short notice.  Green confided 
that, due to the disarray the DUP appears to be in and the 
resultant lack of political progress on devolution, the meetings 
of the Northern Ireland Executive over the last several weeks 
have been little more than "a pretense."  "The business of the 
Executive just isn't justified" as it stands, he said. 
Separately, Sinn Fein's Gerry Adams expressed to us his 
frustration at the pace of the devolution process.  He also 
shared that the current difficulty facing the DUP affected Sinn 
Fein:  "we need a strong unionist leadership, and right now 
Robinson is David Trimble personified." 
 
 
Robinson with PM Brown: 
Finances Remain the Concern 
--------------------------- 
 
¶11. (C/NF) DUP Director of Policy Richard Bullick gave Acting CG 
details of Peter Robinson's separate July 7 meeting with PM 
Brown.  The First Minister was working to move forward on 
policing and justice, Bullick said, but the DUP needed to be 
cautious about the financial pressures that the transfer of 
those powers to Stormont would create.  There was concern about 
having to divert money "from schools and hospitals" in the event 
policing and justice costs ran over estimates - which Bullick 
said could be in the hundreds of millions of pounds.  The 
primary concern was how the Executive would finance several 
open-ended line items, such as hearing loss claims by former 
police officers as a result of the Troubles, unequal pay claims 
within the police, public enquiries into past police actions, 
and legal aid to defend against claims.  All these costs were 
difficult to estimate, and the Executive ran the risk of 
overreaching and asking for too much, only to be refused; or 
asking for too little and be left with significant budget 
shortfalls.  One idea on the table, Bullick said, was a 
compromise whereby Robinson and McGuinness would ask PM Brown 
for a commitment from HM Treasury to help cover these "blind 
costs."  Bullick confirmed that a joint 
Brown-Robinson-McGuinness meeting would take place next week and 
would address these details with an eye toward nailing down 
specifics.  The devolution issue suffered a fresh setback July 9 
when Stormont ministers failed to discuss enabling legislation 
as planned.  It is expected that the Northern Ireland Executive 
will take up the discussion at a meeting later this month. 
 
 
Northern Ireland Secretary Cautions 
Against Pushing Woodward 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶12. (C/NF) In a July 2 meeting with a visiting Codel in London 
Northern Ireland Secretary Shaun Woodward cautioned against 
pushing Robinson too hard on devolution.  Robinson had sought 
power for 30 years, he said, but now realized it was harder to 
govern than he had thought.  Woodward expressed concern that, if 
pushed too far, Robinson, whom he said was "hanging on by a 
thread," could "snap or just walk away."  The fear is that no 
one in the DUP is prepared to succeed him.  Woodward ruled out 
potential contenders - former junior minister Jeffery Donaldson 
(who is this week defending himself against speculative 
accusations that he may have claimed expenses for adult films 
while on official travel) and Minister of Enterprise Arlene 
Foster - as untenable.  Woodward believes that Robinson should 
announce within a few weeks his plan to establish a ministry of 
justice with Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness, with 
details subsequently being worked out by the parties.  Woodward 
dismissed Sinn Fein's insistence on a date certain for the 
creation of the ministry as a non-starter as it put too much 
pressure on Robinson with his party base.  What was more 
important, Woodward said, was a commitment to the process and 
attention to drumming up support among both unionists and 
nationalists/republicans for the new ministry. 
 
 
Woodward Concerned about Devolution 
Under Tories 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶13. (C/NF) Woodward also expressed stark concern about a 
Conservative government under leader David Cameron maintaining 
momentum on devolution.  Cameron lacked understanding of 
Northern Ireland, he said, and had effectively thrown his lot in 
with the unionists by linking the Tories with the former Ulster 
Unionist Party and agreeing to run joint Tory/unionist 
candidates.  The move, Woodward said, which showed Cameron was 
willing to sacrifice peace for electoral gain, would isolate the 
Conservatives further from Sinn Fein and remove the possibility 
of a Tory government playing a constructive role in the peace 
process or the final mechanisms of devolution, were devolution 
not concluded before the next UK general election. 
 
¶14. (C/NF) Woodward also addressed the outstanding issues that 
Sinn Fein has raised: ("On-the-Runs;" and an Irish language act, 
which has drawn a hostile reaction from the DUP with the 
appointment of Nelson McCausland as Minister for Culture, Arts, 
and Leisure.  McCausland opposes the act and his appointment is 
seen as a DUP sop to hard-line unionists.)  Woodward's view is 
that these, and other contentious issues, would be more 
effectively addressed by the Executive and the Assembly once 
devolution was completed, and has argued that they be shelved 
until then so as to minimize the risk that any of the issues 
would scuttle movement on policing and justice. 
 
¶15. (C/NF) Woodward is conscious of time slipping away in which 
the second stage of devolution can take place and has indicated 
that the next six to seven months will be difficult.  The longer 
the final elements of devolution take to settle the more 
emboldened dissident republicans become and the greater the risk 
of undermining confidence within the nationalist community that 
power-sharing can work. 
 
 
Loyalist Decommissioning: Progress 
but More to Do 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶16. (SBU/NF) The June 27 announcement by loyalist paramilitary 
groups the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) and Red Hand Commando 
(RHC) that they had decommissioned arms, munitions, and 
explosives held in their possession was welcomed as a positive 
step by leaders across Northern Ireland.  Head of the 
Independent International Commission on Decommissioning (IICD), 
retired General John de Chastelain, confirmed that IICD 
observers had witnessed the UVF and RHC putting their weapons 
beyond use.  The IICD's next report formally confirming the 
status of decommissioning will be submitted to HMG in August. 
Loyalist decommissioning had been stalled in the wake of the 
March murders by dissident republican groups of soldiers and a 
police officer.  The IICD also announced that a third loyalist 
paramilitary group, the Ulster Defense Association (UDA), had 
begun the process of decommissioning its weapons.  The UDA is 
more decentralized of a group than the UVF, and this 
announcement was followed on July 8 by a statement from the 
political wing of UDA in Coleraine that it was withdrawing 
support for the political and policing institutions of the 
northwest of the province.  Citing frustrations over "the 
demonization of loyalism in the region," the move comes amidst 
increased tensions in the wake of the sectarian murder of 
Catholic Kevin McDaid in Coleraine in May. 
 
 
Marching Season: Currently Calm; 
Minor Incidents 
------------------------------- 
 
¶17. (C/NF) While there have been reports of typical incidents at 
flashpoints during the height of this year's "marching season" 
celebrated by Orange Lodges and loyalist organizations, so far 
there has been no real violence and currently little fear among 
political and community leaders of any serious trouble. 
Bonfires, some as high as 40 feet, are being readied for Orange 
celebrations this weekend.  Most parades have been taking place 
in rural areas and have gone ahead without incident.  Two Orange 
halls, however, were vandalized over the last few days - one in 
Carlisle Circus in Belfast, which is the starting point for the 
Belfast July 12 parade, had paint thrown on its front; while 
sectarian slogans were daubed on the Orange hall in the town of 
Rasharkin, Co. Antrim.  In possibly related, tit-for-tat 
incidents, five Catholic churches - mostly near Ballymena 
(Antrim) - were damaged by thrown-paint incidents in the last 
week.  The incidents, most likely bids by youths to increase 
tensions, were condemned by local politicians, religious leaders 
from both sides, and the Orange Order. 
 
 
MCNICHOLAS