UNCLASSIFIED   UNESCOPARI   06020730 
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INFO RUCNSCO/UNESCO COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS FR 000730 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL UNESCO
SUBJECT:  OFFICIAL LIST OF CANDIDATES FOR UNESCO DIRECTOR-GENERAL 
 
REF:  Paris FR 000670 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  The May 31 deadline for nominations to succeed 
Koichiro Matsuura (Japan) as UNESCO's next Director-General has 
passed.  UNESCO's Executive Board will have nine candidates from 
which to choose when it meets next September.  After many months in 
which there were only four candidates (Egypt, Lithuania, Bulgaria, 
and an Algerian nominated by Cambodia), recent weeks saw a surge of 
applications from Tanzania, Benin, Russia, Ecuador, and Austria. 
The delegations of these countries have in many cases explained to 
us that they were acting explicitly to block a possible victory by 
the current front-runner, Egypt's Culture Minister Farouq Hosny.  At 
this point, the race is too uncertain to call.  Hosny still appears 
to be in the lead, but he faces significant, if divided, opposition. 
 End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) With the May 31 deadline for nominations past, 
knowledgeable UNESCO staff have informed us that nine candidates 
have been formally nominated.  (Executive Board Chairman Yai will 
formally circulate the list on July 8.) This list of candidates is 
now final and definitive.  Unless the Executive Board at its next 
session amends the rules of procedure it agreed at its last meeting 
(reftel), another name cannot be added to the list before voting 
begins.  (Note:  Existing rules permit addition of a new name only 
in the unlikely event that the Executive Board at its September 
session is deadlocked at the end of five ballots.  End Note.) 
Therefore, barring a last minute change to the rules or an 
improbable fifth ballot tie, the successor to UNESCO 
Director-General Matsuura will be one of the following individuals: 
 
Farouq Hosni             Egypt 
Ina Marciulonyte         Lithuania 
Irina Bukova             Bulgaria 
Mohammed Bedjaoui        Algerian nominated by Cambodia 
Sospeter Muhongo         Tanzania 
Noreini Tidjani-Serpos   Benin 
Alexander Yakovenko      Russia 
Ivone Baki               Ecuador 
Benita Ferrero-Waldner   Austria/Colombia 
 
¶3.  (SBU) For those who have followed the campaign so far, the 
length of the list is something of a surprise. As the race began, 
the Arab states and Eastern Europe each claimed that Matsuura's 
successor should come from their region, since each had never 
previously had a Director-General.  Egypt struck first, announcing 
in summer 2007 Culture Minister Hosni's intention to run.  Eastern 
Europe followed shortly thereafter, nominating the Bulgarian and 
Lithuanian UNESCO ambassadors. For many months, the list did not 
grow.  Egypt forced potential Arab candidates from Morocco and Oman 
to withdraw and eventually gained a firm endorsement of Hosni from 
the Arab League.  Hosni then appeared to gain the endorsement of the 
African Union (AU) with significant help from Libyan leader Qadhafi 
at the Organization's summit in January.  Finally, in early May 
2009, Hosni's cause received a powerful boost when Brazil, which had 
been expected to name its own candidate, decided to back Hosni and 
to urge other Latin American countries to do the same.  By mid-May, 
Hosni was reported to have picked up support from Chile, Cuba, the 
Dominican Republic, and (possibly) Argentina.  Further adding to 
Hosni's momentum, it became known at the same time that Israel, an 
early and outspoken critic of Hosni, had switched its position on 
him from "oppose" to "not oppose," following a meeting between 
President Mubarak and Prime Minister Netanyahu.  Egypt began crowing 
that it had the necessary 30 votes on UNESCO's 58-member Executive 
Board to ensure a victory on the first ballot. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Hosni's evident faults (record of anti-Semitic comments 
and reputation for poor management of his ministry) and Egypt's 
increasingly heavy-handed tactics on his behalf have combined to 
trigger a backlash, however.  It began several months ago when 
Cambodia (with apparent encouragement from Algeria) nominated former 
Algerian Foreign Minister Mohammed Bedjaoui.  It became much more 
serious after the January AU Summit, where Qadhafi was perceived to 
have run roughshod over the sub-Saharan African states to obtain 
Hosni's endorsement.  Many influential ambassadors of sub-Saharan 
states have stressed to us here that they do not feel themselves 
bound by the January decision.  We are told that the decisions by 
Tanzania in March and Benin in late May to nominate candidates of 
their own were in large measure motivated by a desire to defy 
Qadhafi (and Egypt) and ensure that sub-Saharan African states have 
leverage in determining the identity of UNESCO's next leader. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Other states have joined the fray in the last ten days. 
Ecuador nominated Andean Parliament President Ivone Baki.  Russia 
made a surprise entrance with Vice-Foreign Minister Yakovenko, and 
Austria nominated its former foreign minister and current EU 
External Affairs Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner.  Austrian officials 
and other Western European delegations have told us that her 
candidacy was explicitly intended to block Egypt's.  Recognizing 
that as a European Ferrero-Waldner suffered a handicap in seeking 
the necessary votes from developing countries, Austria convinced 
Colombia to join in nominating her in order to make her a joint 
 
UNESCOPARI 06020730  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
European/Latin American candidate. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Comment:  Egypt's claims of victory are clearly premature, 
but there is no reason to believe it will give up.  Hosni has more 
commitments than any other candidate, and we expect Egypt will 
continue to pressure and deal on his behalf right up until voting 
begins in September. In particular, we expect that Egypt will seek 
to find the right mix of pressure and inducements to convince as 
many of the other candidates as possible to withdraw.  Benin, 
Tanzania, and other like-minded African states will come in for some 
heavy arm-twisting at the African Union summit later this month. 
And they and Ecuador can expect more of the same treatment at the 
Non-aligned summit that Egypt will host in Sharm el-Sheikh in July. 
We understand from the Russian delegation that President Medvedev 
also plans to meet Mubarak this summer, and they could have some 
tense exchanges on this topic.  (Egyptians were surprised by the 
Russian move and alarmed, as the Russians have immediately set to 
work winning over countries like Cuba that are now pledged to 
Hosni.) 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Comment Continued:  At this point, the race looks wide 
open.  The addition of Ferrero-Waldner, Baki, and Yakovenko in 
recent days has given Hosni something he didn't have previously, 
opponents of ministerial or near ministerial stature.  As we assume 
the Arab states will vote for Hosni on the first ballot and most 
Europeans will not, the principal battleground will be in Latin 
America, Africa, and Asia.  Hosni's opponents will have to do well 
in these regions if they are to block him.  At the moment, 
sub-Saharan Africa with 13 votes on the Executive Board looks quite 
hostile to him.  In Asia, Pakistan and Malaysia will probably 
support him, and China is officially undecided but, according to its 
ambassador, will be much influenced by his Arab League and African 
Union endorsements.  Few others in Asia seem to leaning toward him. 
In Latin America, Egypt has made more inroads with the help of 
Brazil and its supporters.  These are still early days, however, and 
we would expect to see many changes of allegiance between now and 
the voting by secret ballot in September. If Ferrero-Waldner or any 
of the other European candidates begins to erode Hosni's support, we 
would expect Egypt to react by trying to turn the race into a 
north-south contest.  Judging by the frequent questions we receive, 
the U.S. will need to reiterate its views on this campaign often, 
both here at UNESCO headquarters and in capitals.  Egypt has 
frequently put it about falsely that it has somehow allayed U.S. 
concerns about Hosni, and that the U.S. will not oppose him 
actively. 
 
ENGELKEN