VZCZCXRO9052
OO RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0720/01 1540710
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 030710Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3906
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000720 
 
DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A/S CARSON, AF/E 
NSC FOR MGAVIN 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PRELKPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: CDA'S COURTESY CALL ON FOREIGN MINISTER DENG ALOR 
 
REF: A) Khartoum 607 
B) Khartoum 500 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Government of National Unity (GNU) Minister of 
Foreign Affairs Deng Alor said that the Sudanese People's Liberation 
Movement (SPLM) is keen to attend the June 23rd CPA Forum in 
Washington, DC, and is willing to meet with the President's Special 
Envoy to Sudan General Gration in Europe in advance of the Forum in 
order to discuss desired outcomes.  With regard to the ongoing Abyei 
arbitration at The Hague, Alor said that both the National Congress 
Party (NCP) and the SPLM believe that the Court's ruling will be in 
their favor, thus the final result will be difficult to manage.  He 
noted that the most important thing for the parties to be working on 
now is reconciliation between the Ngok Dinka and Misseriya in Abyei 
prior to the Court's ruling.  Alor ended by stating that there are 
many challenging events ahead for the SPLM, including among others 
the national elections scheduled in early 2010, the southern Sudan 
Referendum in 2011, border demarcation, the Abyei ruling and the 
South's dire economic situation due to the decline in oil revenues. 
Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) President Kiir reshuffled the 
GoSS Cabinet on May 31 in an effort to put its "house in order" to 
tackle these and other ongoing and upcoming challenges (septel). 
End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Charge d'Affaires Whitehead paid a courtesy call on GNU 
Foreign Minister (FM) Deng Alor on June 1 and used the opportunity 
to speak with FM Alor about the SPLM's attendance at the June 23 CPA 
Supporters Forum in Washington, DC.  Alor had not yet been briefed 
about the event, but signaled that the SPLM would attend and most 
likely be represented by its Secretary General Pagan Amum, Deputy 
Secretary for the Southern Sector Dr. Anne Itto, and a few others. 
The FM noted that it would be important for the SPLM to put forward 
a team that is "knowledgeable" about the "political landscape" of 
Sudan, and "has the authority to make decisions."  He responded 
positively to the idea of SPLM representatives meeting with Special 
Envoy Gration in Europe before the June 23rd Forum, stating that 
"this is important," and "there is interest."  The CDA told Alor 
that the USG seeks the SPLM's recommendations on and desired 
outcomes from the Conference.  He added that the party's pre-Forum 
meeting with SE Gration would be focused on this.  Alor said that he 
would meet with SPLM Secretary General Amum that evening, and stated 
that he would discuss the upcoming events with him.  Alor dismissed 
as erroneous local media reports that  GNU First Vice President, 
Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) President, and SPLM Chairman is 
planning to travel to Washington, DC for meetings at the same time 
as the June 23rd Conference. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The CDA asked Alor for his views on the ongoing Abyei 
arbitration at The Hague (retels).  Alor, who is an Abyei native and 
Ngok Dinka, stated that both the SPLM and the NCP believe that the 
ruling will be in their favor, which will make managing the final 
outcome difficult.  Both side's presentations were "very 
convincing," said Alor, especially the SPLM's.  However, because it 
is a legal case, the outcome is not guaranteed, he added.  The FM 
noted that the NCP is divided on the issue of the pending Abyei 
ruling.  "Some say that the outcome will not be final and that a new 
dialogue will have to be opened," and others believe that regardless 
of the outcome, reconciliation between the Ngok Dinka and the 
Misseriya should take place immediately in order to prepare for the 
outcome.  He noted: "I see the latter as more serious; this is the 
logical thing that must be done."   The FM also stated there is a 
third group in favor of delinking oil wealth-sharing from border 
demarcation.  This is a way forward that has also been proposed by 
the UK and Norway.  The third group, however, is linking 
negotiations on post-2011 arrangements between the North and the 
South with the southern Sudan Referendum Law, which Alor said he 
thought was not t right. .  The Referendum Law is legal; the 
post-2011 arrangements (including wealth-sharing, grazing rights, 
Nile water-sharing, debt repayment, and others) are political.  The 
two should be separated, said Alor 
 
¶4. (SBU) The FM reported  that Assessment and Evaluation Commission 
(AEC) Chairman Sir Derek Plumbly continues to try and convince the 
SPLM and the NCP to negotiate a political settlement on the 
boundaries of Abyei in advance of the release of The Hague 
arbitration decision (ref A).  "We [the SPLM] would rather wait for 
The Hague now," said Alor.  We are "tired" of discussing Abyei's 
borders with the NCP.  "We will accept the outcome of The Hague's 
arbitration," he added.  "Plumbly's proposal is useful and we [the 
SPLM] are ready to discuss post-2011 wealth-sharing with the NCP, so 
long as it is delinked from our discussions with them on the 
Referendum Law," said Alor.  However, Alor emphasized that the SPLM 
is not ready to discuss a 10-year wealth sharing period post-2011. 
"That reminds me of the initial CPA discussions, when the NCP wanted 
a 10-year interim period."  [Note: A ruling on whether the Abyei 
 
KHARTOUM 00000720  002 OF 002 
 
 
Border Commission exceeded its mandate is expected during the last 
week of July. End note.] 
 
¶5. (SBU) Alor told the CDA, who he described as "no stranger" to 
Sudan, that the SPLM will engage with him often, particularly 
because the "coming period is very sensitive" with regard to the 
elections, referendum, border demarcation, the Abyei ruling, the 
South's dire economic situation, and the International Criminal 
Court (ICC) indictments.  He noted that the GoSS had rejected the 
2008 national census results because of what appeared to the SPLM to 
be manipulation of the northern and southern data by the NCP.  "We 
have rejected that the census data can be used for power-sharing at 
the national level, but I think this can be resolved between the 
parties," he noted.  Alor added that GoSS President Kiir's May 31 
re-shuffling of the GoSS Cabinet was in an effort to put the South's 
"house in order" for what are no doubt tough battles ahead 
(septel). 
 
¶6. (SBU) Comment:  Foreign Minister Alor's comment that the SPLM 
prefers an arbitrated result to a political settlement with the NCP 
on Abyei's boundaries suggests that the SPLM believes that The Hague 
ruling will certainly result in its favor.  Unfortunately, the NCP 
believes the same.  There will undoubtedly be a fall-out from the 
final result of the arbitration given that neither side views itself 
as on the losing side of the win-lose battle.  Alor, however, is 
correct to point out that regardless of the result, the most 
important thing for the parties to do is to reasonably manage 
expectations of the local populations living on the ground - the 
African Ngok Dinka and the Arab Misseriya.  Reconciliation between 
the two groups is vitally important both before the ruling and after 
it, so that peace can be sustained in this volatile, oil-rich 
region, which is prone to violent clashes between its inhabitants 
(particularly when stoked by political forces.)  Another armed clash 
between the North and South in Abyei, such as the one that occurred 
in May 2008, could quickly spiral out of control and potentially 
threaten the entire North-South peace.  The proposal that AEC 
Chairman Ambassador Plumbly has presented to the CPA parties, to 
separate land from oil and ensure the rights of all who rely on the 
land for even part of the year, presents a possible way forward that 
has general support in its broad outlines.  For now, though, both 
parties are content to wait for the arbitration result and are tired 
of negotiations on this issue.  In order to avoid conflict following 
the announcement of the arbitration results, however, it will be 
important to reassure the affected populations of their traditional 
rights to the land. End Comment. 
 
WHITEHEAD