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FM AMCONSUL HONG KONG
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7725
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 000983 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/CM 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2024 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM CH MC
SUBJECT: MACAU CHIEF EXECUTIVE ELECTION: BEIJING BLINKS? 
 
REF: HONG KONG 499 
 
Classified By: Consul General Joe Donovan for reasons 1,4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary and Comment:  Unless and until Macau 
Prosecutor General Ho Chio-meng throws his hat in the ring, 
it appears Secretary for Social Affairs and Culture Fernando 
Chui Sai-on has a lock on Macau's July Chief Executive 
election.  Ho's entry would likely be a signal Beijing had 
decided he "should" win, but as the Chui campaign builds 
momentum, it grows increasingly difficult for Beijing to 
issue such a fiat with any finesse.  That said, Ho polls well 
ahead of Chui among the general public.  Secretary for 
Economy and Finance Francis Tam Pak-yuen seems out of the 
running, although a rumored appointment to the Macau 
Foundation would both distance him from any failings of a 
Chui administration and give him a platform to build his 
network through largesse.  While at least one prominent 
"traditional association" has urged a multi-candidate race, 
the remaining announced contenders stand little chance of 
even being nominated.  End summary and comment. 
 
¶2. (U) Macau began the "election" process for its next Chief 
Executive (CE) May 25, with contenders able to obtain their 
nomination forms.  Macau's 300-member election committee will 
begin the nomination process June 12, giving each member two 
weeks to cast his or her single nominating vote.  A 
"campaign" period runs July 11-24, presumably to allow 
candidates the chance to sway those who did not support their 
nomination to change their vote for the election.  The 
election committee will cast their actual ballots July 26. 
Beijing must then ratify the elected candidate.  The new 
Chief Executive will take office December 20. 
 
-------------------------- 
Macau Elites Throw Down... 
-------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) In what Macau Inter-University Institute (IIUM) 
scholar Jose Duarte called an "ultimatum" to Beijing, Macau's 
elite seem to have closed ranks behind former Secretary for 
Social Affairs and Culture Fernando Chui Sai-on for Macau's 
next CE.  The red-blooded scion of one of Macau's most 
prominent "patriotic" business clans, Chui is seen as 
incumbent CE Edmund Ho Hau-wah's protege.  Chui has long been 
tipped as a candidate, but his connection with vast cost 
overruns in preparations for the East Asian Games in 2005 
have left him tainted with rumors of corruption.  CE Ho's own 
corruption problems, caused by the prosecution of former 
Secretary for Transport and Public Works Ao Man-long, have 
further hurt Chui, reportedly in Beijing as well as Macau. 
That said, Chui's campaign is optimistically predicting it 
can lock up over 200 of the 300 nominating votes. 
 
------------------------ 
...and Beijing Gives Up? 
------------------------ 
 
¶4. (C) Our contacts report Beijing being of divided mind 
about the Macau CE election.  While Chui may be regarded as 
tainted goods, he does represent the choice of the Macau 
elite, and in any case can be expected to toe Beijing's line, 
particularly given the shorter leash he will have after the 
Ao Man-long scandal.  Prosecutor General Ho Chio-meng, though 
viewed as personally clean and, as the man who brought down 
Ao, symbolic of Beijing's attitude regarding corruption, 
would be a tougher sell to Macau's business community.  Ho is 
the most popular candidate on the street -- an informal (and 
unscientific) internet poll showed Ho leading Chui five to 
one among netizens.  That said, our contacts are more 
ambivalent.  IIUM scholar Eric Sautede told us working level 
contacts in the Prosecutor's office are neither impressed 
with nor fond of Ho.  University of Macau (UM) professor and 
"Civic Power" leader Agnes Lam notes Ho's image is better 
than his substance.  Other than prosecute Ao, she asks, what 
has he done?  That said, Lam would support Ho over Chui, if 
only as the best of an indifferent lot. 
 
¶5. (C) UM Government Professor Eilo Yu told us Ho will not 
run unless Beijing asks him to, with the implication that, if 
Ho does run, Beijing intends he win.  Yu sees Ho as able to 
win support in the electoral committee from electors 
representing the professions and civil service.  If Beijing 
were to back Ho, IIUM's Duarte contends, "it would have a 
fight on its hands."  Admitting that Beijing could force the 
decision on Macau, Duarte nevertheless thinks the local 
establishment would demand a "high price" for their 
acquiescence.  Comment: In addition, the longer Beijing 
waits, the more momentum will have built up behind the Chui 
campaign (which already boasts a staff of fifteen), and the 
harder it would be to make the move look like anything other 
 
HONG KONG 00000983  002 OF 002 
 
 
than a fiat.  End comment. 
 
¶6. (C) A scenario we have heard from Yu and Duarte is that 
Beijing might allow Chui one term, with an active effort to 
groom someone more suitable to run in five years.  As a check 
on Chui, Ho would either serve as Secretary for Justice and 
Administration (SJA - the number two spot in the Macau 
Administration) or remain as Prosecutor General.  IIUM's 
Sautede countered that the SJA position is a weak one in the 
government despite its rank, since it controls no big budget 
resources or sectors ofthe economy. 
 
------------------------------ 
Fancis Tam: Greener Pastures? 
----------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Once considered a serious contnder for the CE post, 
Secretary for Economy and inance Francis Tam Pak-yuen seems 
likely to reman on the sidelines for this eection.  He has 
not resigned from his post, a requirement were he to stand 
for elections, and there are no indications he will.  IIUM's 
Duarte reported both that Tam had unspecified "health 
problems" and that Tam was personally not interested in the 
CE job, although other contacts had previously suggested he 
was in the running (reftel).  UM's Yu told us Tam is tipped 
to take over the Macau Foundation, the government-supported 
grant-giving organization which provides financial support to 
most of Macau's social organizations.  If this is the case, 
it's an excellent move for Tam should he have further 
political ambitions.  From that post, his fortunes would seem 
to be distanced from whatever administration takes office, 
but he would nonetheless be able to build a contact network 
and gain popularity through the Foundation's grants. 
 
--------------------------- 
Charge of the Light Brigade 
--------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Media reports have covered extensively polling data 
showing corruption is the number one issue on the minds of 
Macau residents when considering a new Chief Executive, and 
Chui made dealing with the issue a core campaign promise. 
That said, while neither criticizing Chui directly nor 
endorsing another candidate, Macau's Federation of 
Neighborhood Associations (UGAMM in Portuguese) has publicly 
called for more candidates to join the race.  An ad hoc 
coalition of citizens also sponsored a half-page 
advertisement in Hong Kong's pro-democracy Apple Daily May 
26, which criticized Macau corruption and business-government 
collusion, including the East Asian Games issue but not 
naming Chui.  Another group of citizens sent letters 
containing 3-inch razor blades to Hong Kong's centrist Sing 
Tao and Ming Pao newspapers.  The senders declared their 
willingness to use "suicide protests" against a "big clan" 
controlling the CE-ship.  Organizers of the Apple Daily 
advert denied involvement in the letters, theorizing that the 
simplified characters used in the letters sent to the papers 
indicated the senders were likely unemployed recent 
immigrants from the Mainland. 
 
¶9. (C) That said, those who have actually taken steps to run 
are no competition for Chui, and are unlikely even to be 
nominated.  Media report they include: 
 
--  Lei Kuong-on:  A Chinese Medicine doctor who also 
launched a failed bid to challenge CE Ho in 2004; 
 
--  Ng Loi-in:  An admitted humble croupier who nevertheless 
hopes to do something "extraordinary" for Macau.  His plans 
include establishing a "red light district" for the territory; 
 
--  The mysterious "Mr. Loi":  A gentleman who gave only his 
surname and mentioned a connection to Macau's Kiang Wu 
hospital. Loi fled election commission premises to avoid 
being photographed; and 
 
--  Ms. Lao Sao-in: A kindergarten teacher who bills herself 
as a "mother of education", who hopes to have Macau society 
focus on something more than gambling. 
DONOVAN