VZCZCXRO9446
RR RUEHGI RUEHRN RUEHROV
DE RUEHKM #0482/01 1280907
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 080907Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1405
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KAMPALA 000482 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KA UG
SUBJECT: UGANDAN PERSPECTIVE ON MIGINGO ISLAND BORDER ISSUE 
 
¶1. Summary.  The Ugandan Government will accept the outcome of a 
joint border verification team, which is determining whether Uganda 
or Kenya owns tiny Migingo Island in Lake Victoria.  The border 
verification team began work on May 6 and is expected to report its 
findings in mid-to-late June.  The Migingo Island controversy arose 
in February when local Ugandan authorities began demanding fees from 
Kenyan fishermen on Migingo.  Since then, Ugandan officials claim 
that Kenyan politicians have fanned anti-Ugandan sentiments for 
their own political purposes.  The Ugandan Government views the 
dispute as a technical matter and Ugandan officials have so far 
refused to be drawn into the domestic political wrangling in Kenya. 
President Yoweri Museveni said Uganda will accept the outcome of the 
Commission findings in the interest of regional harmony.  End 
Summary. 
 
----------------------------- 
Conflict Over Fishing Rights 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2.  Migingo Island is comprised of two narrow islands lying 
side-by-side in Lake Victoria and is inhabited by some 1,000 
fishermen from fishing communities from several East Africa 
countries.  It has, from our understanding, been under the Ugandan 
flag since independence in 1962, without any previous controversy. 
However, Kenyans dominate the population and it is this large 
percentage on Kenyans on the island that has tied together issues of 
occupancy, taxation, and sovereignty.  The flashpoint occurred on 
February 21 when Ugandan authorities expelled some 400 Kenyan 
fishermen from the island for failure to pay $23 fishing and $70 
annual boat licensing fees.  Uganda fishing regulations require that 
all fish caught within Uganda territorial waters is sold to 
processors within Uganda.  The Bugiri District government in Uganda 
has been responsible for collecting the fees.  Ugandan Marines 
provide security for the island.  The Ugandan flag, until two weeks 
ago, flew over the island.  (Note: Museveni had the flag taken down 
to cool tempers until the dispute is resolved.  End Note.) 
 
¶3.  Ownership of Migingo has sidetracked discussion of a greater 
source of potential conflict: declining fish stocks in Lake 
Victoria.  Fred Mukisa, Uganda's Minister of State for Fisheries, 
hopes that the issue becomes part of the dialogue after the emotions 
generated by the dispute die down.  Mukisa said that the waters 
around the island are rich in Nile Perch.  Fishermen from both 
countries fish around the island and sell their catch to processing 
plants in Kenya, causing revenue losses to the Ugandan Government. 
Kenya owns just 6% of Lake Victoria, but its fishermen catch 180,000 
metric tons of fish for export annually, according to Mukisa. 
Uganda, in contrast, owns 43% of the lake and exports 70,000 metric 
tons of fish annually.  Uganda claims its earnings from fish exports 
have been dropping as fish stocks have been depleted.  In 2006, 
Uganda earned $117 million from fish exports.  This figure dropped 
to $112 million in 2007, according to Mukisa.  He believes an 
agreement needs to be reached to prevent further declines in fish 
stocks. 
 
------------------------------- 
Media Reports Stirring Tensions 
------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  Ugandan Foreign Ministry officials complain that Kenyan 
politicians and the media in both countries have blown the Migingo 
Island issue out of proportion, making it appear to be a serious 
border conflict.  Uganda's Minister of State for International 
Affairs, Henry Okello Oryem told us that Kenyan politicians have 
inflamed their supporters, particularly among the youth, to demand 
that their government take action against Uganda, which is being 
portrayed as war-mongering and expansionist.  Oryem said that 
further incitement by has resulted in provocative actions.  On April 
20, railway train wagons destined for Uganda and other countries in 
the Great Lakes Region were trapped in Nairobi after rioting youths 
uprooted the railway line protesting what they called "Uganda's 
illegal occupation on Migingo Island."  The railway was immediately 
repaired, but the incident again highlighted Uganda's vulnerability 
as a landlocked economy dependent on the railway and road network 
from Mombassa. 
 
¶5.  Oryem said that Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga, in 
particular, has used the issue politically to try to appear tougher 
on national security issues than President Kibaki.  Moreover, Oryem 
claimed that Odinga was trying to paint Ugandan President Museveni 
as an "expansionist warmonger."  Oryem said that Museveni informed 
cabinet that he was willing to give the Kenyans the island in the 
interest of East African harmony.  Cabinet members pushed back and 
told Museveni that he should not give away sovereign Ugandan 
territory.  Instead, the Cabinet advised Museveni that he should 
await the outcome of the survey.  Museveni agreed and informed 
Kibaki.  The two presidents will likely discuss the issue for a 
second time at the East African Community heads of state summit in 
Arusha on May 8.  In the meantime, Oryem said that Museveni will 
seek a private meeting with Odinga to urge him to "stand down" on 
Migingo.  Ugandan Government officials have been ordered not to 
respond to any media reports on Migingo as a way to keep the 
 
KAMPALA 00000482  002 OF 002 
 
 
situation calm. 
 
----------------------------- 
Verification Team Starts Work 
----------------------------- 
 
¶6.  Meanwhile, on May 6, a joint border verification team from Kenya 
and Uganda started to investigate the ownership of Migingo Island. 
Both governments agreed that the verification team will use the 
Order-In-Council of 1926, colonial maps, and the Constitutions of 
both countries as references during the investigation.  The results 
of the survey are expected in mid or late June.  Officials from the 
Ugandan and Kenyan Departments of Fisheries have visited Migingo 
together to asses the situation, help calm tensions on the island, 
and keep islanders informed of the next steps. 
 
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Comment 
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¶7.  Uganda officials have thus far not made any attempt to make 
political hay out of the Migingo dispute, and so far, the reaction 
of the Ugandan public has also been measured.  Officials here 
maintain that the two countries will not go to war over Migingo 
Island, despite political rhetoric and media attempts to inflame the 
public over the issue.  From the Ugandan perspective, the issue is 
technical in nature and easily resolved.  As for the political heat 
being generated from the Kenyan side of the border, Ugandan 
officials have deliberately not allowed themselves to be lured into 
escalating the war of words.  For his part, Museveni is loathe to 
disrupt tighter economic integration, especially with Kenya.  We 
expect Ugandan officials to continue exercising restraint while 
awaiting the results of the verification. 
HOOVER