Keep Us Strong WikiLeaks logo

Currently released so far... 251287 / 251,287

Articles

Browse latest releases

Browse by creation date

Browse by origin

A B C D F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z

Browse by tag

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
AEMR ASEC AMGT AE AS AMED AVIAN AU AF AORC AGENDA AO AR AM APER AFIN ATRN AJ ABUD ARABL AL AG AODE ALOW ADANA AADP AND APECO ACABQ ASEAN AA AFFAIRS AID AGR AY AGS AFSI AGOA AMB ARF ANET ASCH ACOA AFLU AFSN AMEX AFDB ABLD AESC AFGHANISTAN AINF AVIATION ARR ARSO ANDREW ASSEMBLY AIDS APRC ASSK ADCO ASIG AC AZ APEC AFINM ADB AP ACOTA ASEX ACKM ASUP ANTITERRORISM ADPM AINR ARABLEAGUE AGAO AORG AMTC AIN ACCOUNT ASECAFINGMGRIZOREPTU AIDAC AINT ARCH AMGTKSUP ALAMI AMCHAMS ALJAZEERA AVIANFLU AORD AOREC ALIREZA AOMS AMGMT ABDALLAH AORCAE AHMED ACCELERATED AUC ALZUGUREN ANGEL AORL ASECIR AMG AMBASSADOR AEMRASECCASCKFLOMARRPRELPINRAMGTJMXL ADM ASES ABMC AER AMER ASE AMGTHA ARNOLDFREDERICK AOPC ACS AFL AEGR ASED AFPREL AGRI AMCHAM ARNOLD AN ANATO AME APERTH ASECSI AT ACDA ASEDC AIT AMERICA AMLB AMGE ACTION AGMT AFINIZ ASECVE ADRC ABER AGIT APCS AEMED ARABBL ARC ASO AIAG ACEC ASR ASECM ARG AEC ABT ADIP ADCP ANARCHISTS AORCUN AOWC ASJA AALC AX AROC ARM AGENCIES ALBE AK AZE AOPR AREP AMIA ASCE ALANAZI ABDULRAHMEN ABDULHADI AINFCY ARMS ASECEFINKCRMKPAOPTERKHLSAEMRNS AGRICULTURE AFPK AOCR ALEXANDER ATRD ATFN ABLG AORCD AFGHAN ARAS AORCYM AVERY ALVAREZ ACBAQ ALOWAR ANTOINE ABLDG ALAB AMERICAS AFAF ASECAFIN ASEK ASCC AMCT AMGTATK AMT APDC AEMRS ASECE AFSA ATRA ARTICLE ARENA AISG AEMRBC AFR AEIR ASECAF AFARI AMPR ASPA ASOC ANTONIO AORCL ASECARP APRM AUSTRALIAGROUP ASEG AFOR AEAID AMEDI ASECTH ASIC AFDIN AGUIRRE AUNR ASFC AOIC ANTXON ASA ASECCASC ALI AORCEUNPREFPRELSMIGBN ASECKHLS ASSSEMBLY ASECVZ AI ASECPGOV ASIR ASCEC ASAC ARAB AIEA ADMIRAL AUSGR AQ AMTG ARRMZY ANC APR AMAT AIHRC AFU ADEL AECL ACAO AMEMR ADEP AV AW AOR ALL ALOUNI AORCUNGA ALNEA ASC AORCO ARMITAGE AGENGA AGRIC AEM ACOAAMGT AGUILAR AFPHUM AMEDCASCKFLO AFZAL AAA ATPDEA ASECPHUM ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG
ETRD ETTC EU ECON EFIN EAGR EAID ELAB EINV ENIV ENRG EPET EZ ELTN ELECTIONS ECPS ET ER EG EUN EIND ECONOMICS EMIN ECIN EINT EWWT EAIR EN ENGR ES EI ETMIN EL EPA EARG EFIS ECONOMY EC EK ELAM ECONOMIC EAR ESDP ECCP ELN EUM EUMEM ECA EAP ELEC ECOWAS EFTA EXIM ETTD EDRC ECOSOC ECPSN ENVIRONMENT ECO EMAIL ECTRD EREL EDU ENERG ENERGY ENVR ETRAD EAC EXTERNAL EFIC ECIP ERTD EUC ENRGMO EINZ ESTH ECCT EAGER ECPN ELNT ERD EGEN ETRN EIVN ETDR EXEC EIAD EIAR EVN EPRT ETTF ENGY EAIDCIN EXPORT ETRC ESA EIB EAPC EPIT ESOCI ETRB EINDQTRD ENRC EGOV ECLAC EUR ELF ETEL ENRGUA EVIN EARI ESCAP EID ERIN ELAN ENVT EDEV EWWY EXBS ECOM EV ELNTECON ECE ETRDGK EPETEIND ESCI ETRDAORC EAIDETRD ETTR EMS EAGRECONEINVPGOVBN EBRD EUREM ERGR EAGRBN EAUD EFI ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS EPEC ETRO ENRGY EGAR ESSO EGAD ENV ENER EAIDXMXAXBXFFR ELA EET EINVETRD EETC EIDN ERGY ETRDPGOV EING EMINCG EINVECON EURM EEC EICN EINO EPSC ELAP ELABPGOVBN EE ESPS ETRA ECONETRDBESPAR ERICKSON EEOC EVENTS EPIN EB ECUN EPWR ENG EX EH EAIDAR EAIS ELBA EPETUN ETRDEIQ EENV ECPC ETRP ECONENRG EUEAID EWT EEB EAIDNI ESENV EADM ECN ENRGKNNP ETAD ETR ECONETRDEAGRJA ETRG ETER EDUC EITC EBUD EAIF EBEXP EAIDS EITI EGOVSY EFQ ECOQKPKO ETRGY ESF EUE EAIC EPGOV ENFR EAGRE ENRD EINTECPS EAVI ETC ETCC EIAID EAIDAF EAGREAIDPGOVPRELBN EAOD ETRDA EURN EASS EINVA EAIDRW EON ECOR EPREL EGPHUM ELTM ECOS EINN ENNP EUPGOV EAGRTR ECONCS ETIO ETRDGR EAIDB EISNAR EIFN ESPINOSA EAIDASEC ELIN EWTR EMED ETFN ETT EADI EPTER ELDIN EINVEFIN ESS ENRGIZ EQRD ESOC ETRDECD ECINECONCS EAIT ECONEAIR ECONEFIN EUNJ ENRGKNNPMNUCPARMPRELNPTIAEAJMXL ELAD EFIM ETIC EFND EFN ETLN ENGRD EWRG ETA EIN EAIRECONRP EXIMOPIC ERA ENRGJM ECONEGE ENVI ECHEVARRIA EMINETRD EAD ECONIZ EENG ELBR EWWC ELTD EAIDMG ETRK EIPR EISNLN ETEX EPTED EFINECONCS EPCS EAG ETRDKIPR ED EAIO ETRDEC ENRGPARMOTRASENVKGHGPGOVECONTSPLEAID ECONEINVEFINPGOVIZ ERNG EFINU EURFOR EWWI ELTNSNAR ETD EAIRASECCASCID EOXC ESTN EAIDAORC EAGRRP ETRDEMIN ELABPHUMSMIGKCRMBN ETRDEINVTINTCS EGHG EAIDPHUMPRELUG EAGRBTIOBEXPETRDBN EDA EPETPGOV ELAINE EUCOM EMW EFINECONEAIDUNGAGM ELB EINDETRD EMI ETRDECONWTOCS EINR ESTRADA EHUM EFNI ELABV ENR EMN EXO EWWTPRELPGOVMASSMARRBN EATO END EP EINVETC ECONEFINETRDPGOVEAGRPTERKTFNKCRMEAID ELTRN EIQ ETTW EAI ENGRG ETRED ENDURING ETTRD EAIDEGZ EOCN EINF EUPREL ENRL ECPO ENLT EEFIN EPPD ECOIN EUEAGR EISL EIDE ENRGSD EINVECONSENVCSJA EAIG ENTG EEPET EUNCH EPECO ETZ EPAT EPTE EAIRGM ETRDPREL EUNGRSISAFPKSYLESO ETTN EINVKSCA ESLCO EBMGT ENRGTRGYETRDBEXPBTIOSZ EFLU ELND EFINOECD EAIDHO EDUARDO ENEG ECONEINVETRDEFINELABETRDKTDBPGOVOPIC EFINTS ECONQH ENRGPREL EUNPHUM EINDIR EPE EMINECINECONSENVTBIONS EFINM ECRM EQ EWWTSP ECONPGOVBN
KFLO KPKO KDEM KFLU KTEX KMDR KPAO KCRM KIDE KN KNNP KG KMCA KZ KJUS KWBG KU KDMR KAWC KCOR KPAL KOMC KTDB KTIA KISL KHIV KHUM KTER KCFE KTFN KS KIRF KTIP KIRC KSCA KICA KIPR KPWR KWMN KE KGIC KGIT KSTC KACT KSEP KFRD KUNR KHLS KCRS KRVC KUWAIT KVPR KSRE KMPI KMRS KNRV KNEI KCIP KSEO KITA KDRG KV KSUM KCUL KPET KBCT KO KSEC KOLY KNAR KGHG KSAF KWNM KNUC KMNP KVIR KPOL KOCI KPIR KLIG KSAC KSTH KNPT KINL KPRP KRIM KICC KIFR KPRV KAWK KFIN KT KVRC KR KHDP KGOV KPOW KTBT KPMI KPOA KRIF KEDEM KFSC KY KGCC KATRINA KWAC KSPR KTBD KBIO KSCI KRCM KNNB KBNC KIMT KCSY KINR KRAD KMFO KCORR KW KDEMSOCI KNEP KFPC KEMPI KBTR KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KNPP KTTB KTFIN KBTS KCOM KFTN KMOC KOR KDP KPOP KGHA KSLG KMCR KJUST KUM KMSG KHPD KREC KIPRTRD KPREL KEN KCSA KCRIM KGLB KAKA KWWT KUNP KCRN KISLPINR KLFU KUNC KEDU KCMA KREF KPAS KRKO KNNC KLHS KWAK KOC KAPO KTDD KOGL KLAP KECF KCRCM KNDP KSEAO KCIS KISM KREL KISR KISC KKPO KWCR KPFO KUS KX KWCI KRFD KWPG KTRD KH KLSO KEVIN KEANE KACW KWRF KNAO KETTC KTAO KWIR KVCORR KDEMGT KPLS KICT KWGB KIDS KSCS KIRP KSTCPL KDEN KLAB KFLOA KIND KMIG KPPAO KPRO KLEG KGKG KCUM KTTP KWPA KIIP KPEO KICR KNNA KMGT KCROM KMCC KLPM KNNPGM KSIA KSI KWWW KOMS KESS KMCAJO KWN KTDM KDCM KCM KVPRKHLS KENV KCCP KGCN KCEM KEMR KWMNKDEM KNNPPARM KDRM KWIM KJRE KAID KWMM KPAONZ KUAE KTFR KIF KNAP KPSC KSOCI KCWI KAUST KPIN KCHG KLBO KIRCOEXC KI KIRCHOFF KSTT KNPR KDRL KCFC KLTN KPAOKMDRKE KPALAOIS KESO KKOR KSMT KFTFN KTFM KDEMK KPKP KOCM KNN KISLSCUL KFRDSOCIRO KINT KRG KWMNSMIG KSTCC KPAOY KFOR KWPR KSEPCVIS KGIV KSEI KIL KWMNPHUMPRELKPAOZW KQ KEMS KHSL KTNF KPDD KANSOU KKIV KFCE KTTC KGH KNNNP KK KSCT KWNN KAWX KOMCSG KEIM KTSD KFIU KDTB KFGM KACP KWWMN KWAWC KSPA KGICKS KNUP KNNO KISLAO KTPN KSTS KPRM KPALPREL KPO KTLA KCRP KNMP KAWCK KCERS KDUM KEDM KTIALG KWUN KPTS KPEM KMEPI KAWL KHMN KCRO KCMR KPTD KCROR KMPT KTRF KSKN KMAC KUK KIRL KEM KSOC KBTC KOM KINP KDEMAF KTNBT KISK KRM KWBW KBWG KNNPMNUC KNOP KSUP KCOG KNET KWBC KESP KMRD KEBG KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KPWG KOMCCO KRGY KNNF KPROG KJAN KFRED KPOKO KM KWMNCS KMPF KJWC KJU KSMIG KALR KRAL KDGOV KPA KCRMJA KCRI KAYLA KPGOV KRD KNNPCH KFEM KPRD KFAM KALM KIPRETRDKCRM KMPP KADM KRFR KMWN KWRG KTIAPARM KTIAEUN KRDP KLIP KDDEM KTIAIC KWKN KPAD KDM KRCS KWBGSY KEAI KIVP KPAOPREL KUNH KTSC KIPT KNP KJUSTH KGOR KEPREL KHSA KGHGHIV KNNR KOMH KRCIM KWPB KWIC KINF KPER KILS KA KNRG KCSI KFRP KLFLO KFE KNPPIS KQM KQRDQ KERG KPAOPHUM KSUMPHUM KVBL KARIM KOSOVO KNSD KUIR KWHG KWBGXF KWMNU KPBT KKNP KERF KCRT KVIS KWRC KVIP KTFS KMARR KDGR KPAI KDE KTCRE KMPIO KUNRAORC KHOURY KAWS KPAK KOEM KCGC KID KVRP KCPS KIVR KBDS KWOMN KIIC KTFNJA KARZAI KMVP KHJUS KPKOUNSC KMAR KIBL KUNA KSA KIS KJUSAF KDEV KPMO KHIB KIRD KOUYATE KIPRZ KBEM KPAM KDET KPPD KOSCE KJUSKUNR KICCPUR KRMS KWMNPREL KWMJN KREISLER KWM KDHS KRV KPOV KWMNCI KMPL KFLD KWWN KCVM KIMMITT KCASC KOMO KNATO KDDG KHGH KRF KSCAECON KWMEN KRIC
PREL PINR PGOV PHUM PTER PE PREF PARM PBTS PINS PHSA PK PL PM PNAT PHAS PO PROP PGOVE PA PU POLITICAL PPTER POL PALESTINIAN PHUN PIN PAMQ PPA PSEC POLM PBIO PSOE PDEM PAK PF PKAO PGOVPRELMARRMOPS PMIL PV POLITICS PRELS POLICY PRELHA PIRN PINT PGOG PERSONS PRC PEACE PROCESS PRELPGOV PROV PFOV PKK PRE PT PIRF PSI PRL PRELAF PROG PARMP PERL PUNE PREFA PP PGOB PUM PROTECTION PARTIES PRIL PEL PAGE PS PGO PCUL PLUM PIF PGOVENRGCVISMASSEAIDOPRCEWWTBN PMUC PCOR PAS PB PKO PY PKST PTR PRM POUS PRELIZ PGIC PHUMS PAL PNUC PLO PMOPS PHM PGOVBL PBK PELOSI PTE PGOVAU PNR PINSO PRO PLAB PREM PNIR PSOCI PBS PD PHUML PERURENA PKPA PVOV PMAR PHUMCF PUHM PHUH PRELPGOVETTCIRAE PRT PROPERTY PEPFAR PREI POLUN PAR PINSF PREFL PH PREC PPD PING PQL PINSCE PGV PREO PRELUN POV PGOVPHUM PINRES PRES PGOC PINO POTUS PTERE PRELKPAO PRGOV PETR PGOVEAGRKMCAKNARBN PPKO PARLIAMENT PEPR PMIG PTBS PACE PETER PMDL PVIP PKPO POLMIL PTEL PJUS PHUMNI PRELKPAOIZ PGOVPREL POGV PEREZ POWELL PMASS PDOV PARN PG PPOL PGIV PAIGH PBOV PETROL PGPV PGOVL POSTS PSO PRELEU PRELECON PHUMPINS PGOVKCMABN PQM PRELSP PRGO PATTY PRELPGOVEAIDECONEINVBEXPSCULOIIPBTIO PGVO PROTESTS PRELPLS PKFK PGOVEAIDUKNOSWGMHUCANLLHFRSPITNZ PARAGRAPH PRELGOV POG PTRD PTERM PBTSAG PHUMKPAL PRELPK PTERPGOV PAO PRIVATIZATION PSCE PPAO PGOVPRELPHUMPREFSMIGELABEAIDKCRMKWMN PARALYMPIC PRUM PKPRP PETERS PAHO PARMS PGREL PINV POINS PHUMPREL POREL PRELNL PHUMPGOV PGOVQL PLAN PRELL PARP PROVE PSOC PDD PRELNP PRELBR PKMN PGKV PUAS PRELTBIOBA PBTSEWWT PTERIS PGOVU PRELGG PHUMPRELPGOV PFOR PEPGOV PRELUNSC PRAM PICES PTERIZ PREK PRELEAGR PRELEUN PHUME PHU PHUMKCRS PRESL PRTER PGOF PARK PGOVSOCI PTERPREL PGOVEAID PGOVPHUMKPAO PINSKISL PREZ PGOVAF PARMEUN PECON PINL POGOV PGOVLO PIERRE PRELPHUM PGOVPZ PGOVKCRM PBST PKPAO PHUMHUPPS PGOVPOL PASS PPGOV PROGV PAGR PHALANAGE PARTY PRELID PGOVID PHUMR PHSAQ PINRAMGT PSA PRELM PRELMU PIA PINRPE PBTSRU PARMIR PEDRO PNUK PVPR PINOCHET PAARM PRFE PRELEIN PINF PCI PSEPC PGOVSU PRLE PDIP PHEM PRELB PORG PGGOC POLG POPDC PGOVPM PWMN PDRG PHUMK PINB PRELAL PRER PFIN PNRG PRED POLI PHUMBO PHYTRP PROLIFERATION PHARM PUOS PRHUM PUNR PENA PGOVREL PETRAEUS PGOVKDEM PGOVENRG PHUS PRESIDENT PTERKU PRELKSUMXABN PGOVSI PHUMQHA PKISL PIR PGOVZI PHUMIZNL PKNP PRELEVU PMIN PHIM PHUMBA PUBLIC PHAM PRELKPKO PMR PARTM PPREL PN PROL PDA PGOVECON PKBL PKEAID PERM PRELEZ PRELC PER PHJM PGOVPRELPINRBN PRFL PLN PWBG PNG PHUMA PGOR PHUMPTER POLINT PPEF PKPAL PNNL PMARR PAC PTIA PKDEM PAUL PREG PTERR PTERPRELPARMPGOVPBTSETTCEAIRELTNTC PRELJA POLS PI PNS PAREL PENV PTEROREP PGOVM PINER PBGT PHSAUNSC PTERDJ PRELEAID PARMIN PKIR PLEC PCRM PNET PARR PRELETRD PRELBN PINRTH PREJ PEACEKEEPINGFORCES PEMEX PRELZ PFLP PBPTS PTGOV PREVAL PRELSW PAUM PRF PHUMKDEM PATRICK PGOVKMCAPHUMBN PRELA PNUM PGGV PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA PBT PIND PTEP PTERKS PGOVJM PGOT PRELMARR PGOVCU PREV PREFF PRWL PET PROB PRELPHUMP PHUMAF PVTS PRELAFDB PSNR PGOVECONPRELBU PGOVZL PREP PHUMPRELBN PHSAPREL PARCA PGREV PGOVDO PGON PCON PODC PRELOV PHSAK PSHA PGOVGM PRELP POSCE PGOVPTER PHUMRU PINRHU PARMR PGOVTI PPEL PMAT PAN PANAM PGOVBO PRELHRC

Browse by classification

Community resources

courage is contagious

Viewing cable 09QUITO298, COUNTDOWN TO ELECTIONS; PRESIDENT'S RACE FOREGONE

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs

Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
  • The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
  • The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
  • The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.

Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #09QUITO298.
Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09QUITO298 2009-04-27 12:09 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Quito
Appears in these articles:
http://www.eluniverso.com/2011/04/20/1/1355/cable-204247.html
VZCZCXYZ0002
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHQT #0298/01 1171209
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 271209Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0304
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 8115
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 4161
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 3520
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ APR LIMA 3172
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 4287
C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000298 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS 
TAGS: PGOV KPLS OAS EC
SUBJECT: COUNTDOWN TO ELECTIONS; PRESIDENT'S RACE FOREGONE 
CONCLUSION 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Heather Hodges for reason 1.4 (D) 
 
1. (SB...



id: 204247
date: 4/27/2009 12:09
refid: 09QUITO298
origin: Embassy Quito
classification: CONFIDENTIAL
destination: 
header:
VZCZCXYZ0002
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHQT #0298/01 1171209
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 271209Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0304
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 8115
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 4161
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 3520
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ APR LIMA 3172
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 4287


----------------- header ends ----------------

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000298 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS 
TAGS: PGOV KPLS OAS EC
SUBJECT: COUNTDOWN TO ELECTIONS; PRESIDENT'S RACE FOREGONE 
CONCLUSION 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Heather Hodges for reason 1.4 (D) 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  With four days remaining before the April 
26 elections, President Correa sits comfortably ahead of all 
other candidates, with polls showing him with enough votes 
for a first-round win.  Recently arrived international 
election observation teams have reported concern with how the 
lack of regulation of government propaganda has played to the 
favor of the incumbent government; however, fraud on election 
day is unlikely.  Overall, the presidential campaign has been 
lackluster, with little real debate (face to face or 
otherwise) on policy issues.  Key outcomes to watch are the 
size of Correa's margin, and the National Assembly and Quito 
mayoral race results.  End Summary. 
 
LAST-MINUTE BLUNDER AND CAMPAIGN ADJUSTMENTS 
 
2. (SBU) Three opposition political parties were omitted in 
sample city council ballots for Ecuador's largest city of 
Guayaquil on the Sunday preceding the elections.  The party 
lists missing were the New Option movement, the Patriotic 
Society Party, and most notably, Guayaquil mayor and leading 
candidate Jaime Nebot's Social Christian Party and Warrior 
Material Movement alliance.  The National Electoral Council 
took responsibility for the error and the ballot was 
reprinted in El Universo, the newspaper in which the faulty 
ballot was originally published.  However, the reprinted 
sample ballot appeared in a small space on an inside page of 
the newspaper, while a GOE advertisement praising the 
government,s stewardship of the economy took up the 
prominent back page of the paper. 
 
3. (SBU) On April 16, the National Electoral Council 
announced that Correa would be prohibited from transmitting 
his weekly radio and TV address the Saturday before 
elections, in accordance with electoral rule that no 
candidate may make public appearances, or activities with 
"proselytizing" characteristics between April 23 and 27. 
This is on the heels of a National Electoral Council decision 
in late March to fine Correa $650 for criticizing his 
presidential opponents during his weekly public address and 
its threat to suspend the programs completely if he made any 
more references to other candidates.  After a public exchange 
of critical words with the Council, Correa and his Proud and 
Sovereign Fatherland (PAIS) movement submitted an official 
appeal to the Electoral Disputes Tribunal on April 6, and 
Correa at least avoided referring to his opponents by name 
during his April 11 address.  The appeal, along with the 
March 12 appeal of the "Hey Jude" fine, is still awaiting a 
ruling from the Tribunal. 
 
NEW VOTERS EFFECT 
 
4. (SBU) New segments of the population, totaling almost one 
million of 10.5 million voters expected overall, will be 
given the opportunity to vote in the elections as mandated by 
the new constitution.  Youth between the ages of 16 and 18, 
Ecuadorians residing outside of Ecuador, foreigners residing 
legally within Ecuador, military and police, and inmates 
still awaiting sentences are entitled to go to the polling 
booths for the first time on April 26.  Although not 
obligatory, over half a million youths were registered, 
followed by 185,000 external Ecuadorians, nearly 100,000 
military and police officers, over 80,000 non-Ecuadorians 
with at least five years of legal residence in the country, 
and 2,700 inmates.  The local NGO, Citizen Participation has 
expressed concern with potential voting bias among youths, 
whose voter education was suspected to be influenced by the 
leftist teachers' union, and the military and police, whose 
independence from the government has been questioned in light 
of recent increases in their government benefits. 
 
POLLS IN CORREA'S FAVOR 
 
5. (SBU) According to all three major polls, Correa has the 
necessary 40% of the total votes, plus 10% more than the 
runner-up, to win the presidency in the first round.  Since 
release of polling data was forbidden starting 20 days before 
the election, the latest published data is from late March 
and early April.  At that time, Correa continued to lead the 
next closest presidential candidate by 32, 39 and 41 points, 
according to polling firms Market, CEDATOS and Santiago 
Perez, respectively, and hovered around the 50% total vote 
mark by all three.  It is likely that Correa will cinch the 
Presidency in the first round, with former president Lucio 
Gutierrez and banana tycoon Alvaro Noboa trailing far behind. 
 
 
PRESIDENTIAL WIN, BUT NOT A CLEAN SWEEP 
 
6. (SBU) Unlike the expected PAIS presidential victory, 
National Assembly seats and local offices continue to be 
hotly contested.  According to pollster Santiago Perez's data 
from April 5, PAIS is slated to win a slight majority within 
the legislature (53%), but not enough to block the opposition 
from taking initial actions to remove cabinet members.  This 
outcome would mark a significant decrease from the 61% of 
assembly seats they currently hold in the temporary 
legislature.  PAIS's showing in the CEDATOS poll from March 
22 is much lower, with only 30%, but 46% undecided. 
 
7. (SBU) At the municipal level, running as part of Correa's 
PAIS movement has not necessarily proven to be the golden 
ticket for local PAIS candidates.  The race for the mayor of 
Quito continues to be one of the closest, with the PAIS 
candidate Augusto Barrera edging out Antonio Ricaurte 38% to 
29% and 31% to 27%, according to Market and CEDATOS 
respectively.  Current mayor of Guayaquil Jaime Nebot 
continues to enjoy a comfortable lead, with nearly 70% of the 
vote.  In the province of El Oro where Correa has a 63% 
approval rating, the PAIS mayoral candidate for the 
provincial capital only has 20% support, compared to the 
opposition candidate's 70%. 
 
CONCERNS SURFACE FROM PRE-ELECTION OBSERVATION 
 
8. (SBU) The two principal international observation missions 
by the European Union and the Organization of American States 
have both expressed concerns during the pre-election week 
with the limited training and resources for the new and 
controversial intermediate counting centers (juntas 
intermedias).  Another major issue raised has been the lack 
of clarity in the electoral public finance legislation that 
has allowed excessive usage of official government publicity. 
 One example occurred on the April 21 weekly public service 
announcement by the GOE which was essentially a 10-minute 
defense of the new criminal code that has been openly 
critized by the opposition in the latter half of the 
campaign.  According to Citizen Participation, Correa's 
official campaign has only spent $300,235 of publically 
financed election money as of April 17; however, the total 
amount of government publicity financed during the same 
period reached over $2 million dollars.  This corresponds to 
almost 2300 minutes of extra air time, or over four times the 
amount of the next highest air time of any presidential 
candidate. 
 
9. (SBU) USG support for this year's election totals over 
half a million dollars.  The OAS mission received $225,000 
from the USOAS, and there will be nine U.S. Embassy and 
Consulate volunteer observers.  USAID is providing a total of 
$269,000 of technical assistance to the GOE National 
Electoral Council to implement a country-wide 
voters-with-disabilities campaign and to the Electoral 
Disputes Tribunal to increase their institutional capacity 
through trainings and operational support.  The major 
domestic observation effort by USAID-supported NGO Citizen 
Participation, will have 8,000 observers in all 24 provinces 
to monitor election-day proceedings.  Citizen Participation 
will also conduct a quick count of the presidential and 
assembly races that will be produced parallel to the official 
GOE count. 
 
COMMENT 
 
10. (C) A combination of election fatigue and universal 
acceptance of another four years of a Correa presidency has 
made for an uninteresting election at the national level. 
The lack of new ideas amongst the other presidential 
hopefuls, or any sincere attempt to address issues of 
concern, has left the Ecuadorian electorate with no 
alternative to the status quo.  The local campaign races have 
proven to be more dynamic, and it is likely that any 
substantial opposition to a future Correa administration will 
come from local government leaders. 
HODGES 

=======================CABLE ENDS============================