VZCZCXRO1752
OO RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHML #0924/03 1190859
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 290859Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY MANILA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3975
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS IMMEDIATE
RHHMUNA/CDRUSPACOM HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ECTION 03 OF 05 MANILA 000924 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FR EAP/MTS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2019 
TAGS: GOV PREL PINR RP
SUBJECT: CANDIDATES BEGIN JOKEYING FOR 2010 PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTION 
 
not-so-sbtle vote-buying mechanisms. 
 
TOP CANDIDATES FORTHE PRESIDENCY 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (C) The top nine contenders for the Presideny include 
Vice President De Castro, Defense Secrtary Gilbert Teodoro, 
Supreme Court Chief JusticeReynato Puno, former President 
Joseph Estrada, ad Senators Manuel Villar, Loren Legarda, 
Manuel oxas II, Francis Escudero, and Panfilo Lacson.  A 
second tier of contenders, including Senator Richrd Gordon, 
Metro Manila Development Authority Charman Bayani Fernando, 
Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay the El Shaddai charismatic 
Catholic leader Broter Mike Velarde, and Pampanga 
Governor-priest Edardo Panlilio will be covered in septel. 
 
VICE PESIDENT DE CASTRO 
------------------------ 
 
10.(C) Concurrently the government's housing czar, Vie 
President De Castro, 59, has consistently toppd presidential 
poll surveys.  Elected in 2001 toa six-year term in the 
Senate, De Castro gave uphis seat to become President 
Arroyo's successful unning mate in the 2004 presidential 
elections. He is backed by the media giant ABS-CBN where heworked as a radio announcer and television news anhor, 
making him a household name.  De Castro hoss a popular radio 
show on Saturdays that targets ower income families. 
However, as a diffident pulic official with unimpressive 
leadership skillsand credentials, his performance has been 
lackluter.  His reliance on campaign donors could renderhim 
highly prone to the dictates of vested interets.  Still, as 
a well-liked, personable incumben, he could successfully 
seek reelection under th administration banner or as running 
mate of Sentor Manuel Villar. (The two are close friends.) 
e Castro is married to ABS-CBN executive Arlene Sinuat (of 
a prominent Muslim clan in Mindanao)who reportedly wields 
strong influence over him. 
 
DEFENSE SECRETARY GILBERT TEODORO 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (C)  Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, 44, announced his 
candidacy only recently, more than a year after his 
competitors, yet he still generated a favorable response. 
His peers in the Cabinet acknowledged he is presidential 
material, noting his youthful idealism, intellectual 
capability, leadership, sense of national pride, and firm 
understanding of challenges facing the country.  Teodoro is 
one of the best educated presidential aspirants, holding a 
Master's Degree in law from Harvard and placing first in the 
1989 Philippine Bar exam.  Teodoro is politically acceptable 
to the ruling Lakas/KAMPI Party and has the support of the 
20,000-strong Philippine Councilors League, but lacks the 
popularity of De Castro, a handicap he can overcome if he can 
get the support of other parties, including the Nationalist 
People's Coalition (NPC) Party chaired by his uncle, business 
magnate Eduardo Cojuangco.  A three-term Tarlac 
Representative before his appointment to the Arroyo Cabinet, 
Teodoro once headed the NPC bloc in Congress but became 
independent after he joined the Arroyo Cabinet.  Teodoro's 
wife "Nikki" occupies the seat he vacated in Congress.  Some 
political insiders speculate that Teodoro comes across as too 
elite to get the necessary lower-class votes to win. 
 
THE CHIEF JUSTICE: A MORAL FORCE 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶12. (C) Supreme Court Chief Justice Reynato Puno has not yet 
openly declared an intention to run for the presidency, but 
the anti-corruption "Moral Force Movement" initiative he 
started April 2009 aims to identify the leadership qualities 
that he feels will benefit the country -- not surprisingly, 
qualities he believes he embodies -- without endorsing 
specific candidates.  COMELEC Chairman Jose Melo and other 
influential figures have nonetheless said they would vote for 
Puno if he decides to run.  Chief Justice Puno's potential 
influence does not end there. He opposes the 
U.S.-Philippines Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) and recently 
voted with a minority of Justices who consider the agreement 
unconstitutional. 
 
FORMER PRESIDENT JOSEPH ESTRADA 
------------------------------- 
 
¶13. (C) Mindful of the opposition defeat in the last 
presidential elections, ousted former President and pardoned 
felon Joseph Estrada, 72, has threatened to run if the 
opposition once again fails to unite and field a common