O R 141206Z MAR 09
FM AMCONSUL LAHORE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3959
INFO AMCONSUL CHENNAI 
CIA WASHDC
AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 
JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
AMEMBASSY KABUL 
AMCONSUL KARACHI 
AMCONSUL KOLKATA 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMCONSUL MUMBAI 
AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 
NSC WASHINGTON DC
AMCONSUL PESHAWAR 
SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
AMCONSUL LAHORE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAHORE 000050 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  3/14/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PK
SUBJECT: GOVERNOR RESISTS COMPROMISE IN PUNJAB 
 
REF: Islamabad 541 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Bryan Hunt, Principal Officer, U.S. Consulate 
Lahore, U.S. Department of State. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: Punjab Governor Salman Taseer told Principal 
Officer (PO) March 14 that the best solution to stabilize the 
provincial government continues to rely on a tie-up between the 
Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League 
(PML) with a PPP Chief Minister at the helm.  He dismissed the 
unity government idea floated by PML leader Chaudhry Shujaat 
Hussain (reftel), and contended that too much bad blood existed 
between the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and PPP to make 
a reconciliation between the two parties feasible.  However, he 
hedged, any decision to reconcile ultimately rests with the 
President and Prime Minister.  Taseer noted that while the 
lawyers have so far had diminishing returns, he expected to give 
orders to put several Members of the Provincial Assembly (MPAs) 
under house arrest on March 15-16 for "their own safety."  PO 
underlined that the international community would react to the 
detention of any senior leadership, MPA or Members of the 
National Assembly.  End Summary. 
 
- - - 
Large Marches Fail to Materialize in Punjab 
- - - 
 
¶2. (C) In a March 14 meeting with Principal Officer (PO), Punjab 
Governor Salman Taseer observed that the precautions taken by 
the authorities so far have diminished the turnout at rallies. 
He related that he has allowed 150 lawyers to march in Multan 
for 30 minutes, after which they had agreed to go home.  "With 
only a few thousand people showing up, it looks pathetic if they 
sit in some parade ground," he stated.  He detailed that the 
provincial government has decided to stop marchers at entry 
points into Lahore and Rawalpindi, and return them to their 
original province.  While southern Punjab remained "completely 
dead," he worried that Rawalpindi might bring out trouble-makers 
from the slum areas and cause problems, which the police would 
deal with appropriately. 
 
- - - 
Hope Still Lies with PPP-Q Tie-Up 
- - - 
 
¶3. (C) Asked about his efforts to secure a post-Governor's Rule 
government in Punjab, Taseer divulged that the PPP has offered a 
package to the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) which gives them 
federal ministerships and a "joint candidate" for the Chief 
Minister position in Punjab, but declined to offer a clear 
timeline.  The Chief Minister would come from the PPP, he 
specified, and the government would treat the PML-N as the 
"honorable opposition."  He thought that the PML would refuse to 
ally with the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).  "N is not a 
party you can work with; the two mad Sharifs are beyond reason," 
he opined.  However, he hedged, the ultimate decision rests with 
the President and Prime Minister.  He offered that he would take 
a compromise if the PML-N pledged to refrain from former Chief 
Minister Shahbaz Sharif's previous tactics, in which he failed 
to fulfill the terms of a coalition. 
 
- - - 
Governor Dismisses Idea of Unity Coalition 
- - - 
 
¶4. (C) The PO relayed PML leader Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain's 
proposal to form a unity government of the three main political 
parties, with a PML Chief Minister a the helm of the Punjab 
government (reftel).  Taseer dismissed the proposal, and 
assessed that both Moonis Elahi, who the PML has suggested as 
the next Chief Minister, and his father Pervez Elahi, who 
formerly served as Chief Minister, would have a difficult time 
governing in the current situation without the "godfather of 
Musharraf."  He reiterated that the most logical solution is a 
PML and PPP alliance.  "Distrust and bad blood characterize the 
N League, and I cannot see the Chaudhrys handling the Sharifs," 
he surmised.  He asked PO to persuade the PML leadership to 
accept the PPP's offer, which he believed would guarantee 
stability and peace in Punjab.  Moreover, he suggested, 
additional discussions can take place regarding the 
constitutional arrangements, provided that former Chief Justice 
Chaudhry Iftikar remains off the table.  "He's a highly 
dangerous man," he judged. 
 
- - - 
Restoration of Eligibility Would Not Necessarily Bring Shahbaz 
Back in Power 
- - - 
 
¶5. (C) The PO asked whether a judicial review that invalidated 
the decision that disqualified Shahbaz Sharif would allow 
Shahbaz to return to his position as Chief Minister.  Taseer 
said that Shahbaz would still not be able to serve as Chief 
Minister, as demonstrated in a previous ruling.  Moreover, 
Taseer emphasized, the PPP and PML would refuse to allow another 
Shahbaz tenure.  "His entire program was to destroy both 
parties," he recalled.  The PO stressed that if Shahbaz could 
not head the provincial government, the PPP would have to make 
"serious concessions on Iftikar Chaudhry and the 17th 
Amendment."  Taseer observed that the Sharifs would likely 
refuse anyone else from the PML-N to take the Chief Minister 
position, which he speculated could split the party and diminish 
their influence. 
 
- - - 
House Arrests in Punjab in the Cards 
- - - 
 
¶6. (C) The Governor detailed that while southern Punjab has been 
quiet, he expects to put several prominent leaders under house 
arrest.  For instance, he related, he has issued orders not to 
allow former president of the Supreme Court Bar Association 
Munir Malik to fly into Punjab from Karachi.  PO underscored 
that arrests of senior leaders would be strongly criticized by 
international donors.  The governor responded that 48-hour 
detentions would occur "for their own safety; we don't want an 
unpleasant incident to happen."  PO repeated that arresting 
senior leadership, Members of the Provincial Assembly (MPAs), 
Members of the National Assembly (MNAs), or Senators was 
counterproductive .  The governor again reported that he has 
asked the police to take MNA and PML-N Senior Vice-President 
Makhdoom Javed Hashmi to a "rest house, serve him tea and urge 
him to relax."  PO responded that unless they engage in or 
actively encourage arson, vandalism or violence, the provincial 
government should refrain from arrests of senior political 
party/lawyers' movement/civil society leaders, MPAs, MNAs, or 
Senators.  The governor restated that he planned to arrest 
several MPAs. 
 
¶7. (C) During the conversation, Taseer took two phone calls.  In 
the first telcon, he approved of allowing 10-15 people in 
Khanewal, Okara, and Sahiwal districts to "march up and down" 
and then go home.  In the second telcon, he reiterated that 
orders to provincial police should only come from him or the 
Chief Secretary, and not from the Ministry of Interior. 
 
- - - 
Comment: Governor's Distrust of PML-N Outweighs Thoughts of 
Compromise 
- - - 
 
¶8. (C) The governor's faith in a PPP-PML deal, which has failed 
to materialize for many months, comes from a deep antipathy 
towards the PML-N leadership, as well as his own ambition to 
become Chief Minister in his own right.  But as he made clear in 
the meeting, he will swallow any compromise sealed by his 
party's leadership.  In the meantime, however, he will continue 
to work for a partnership with the PML and use arrests and 
blockades to stifle the long march, actions which will further 
complicate efforts to find a resolution to the current political 
crisis. 
 
 
GROUT