O P 031313Z MAR 09
FM AMCONSUL LAHORE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3940
INFO AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 
AMCONSUL KARACHI PRIORITY 
AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY KABUL 
AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
CIA WASHDC
JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL
AMCONSUL LAHORE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAHORE 000038 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  3/2/2034 
TAGS: PGOV PK
SUBJECT: THE NUMBERS GAME IN THE PUNJAB 
 
Derived from: DSCG 05-1, B,D 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  The key to power in the Punjab lies with the 
Pakistan Muslim League (PML) and its leaders the Chaudhrys of 
Gujrat.  The Chaudhry cousins told the Principal Officer on 
February 28 that they were being assiduously courted by both the 
Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League - 
Nawaz (PML-N) but were adament that they had not -- despite 
claims to the contrary from PPP officials -- formalized a deal 
with either party.  Absent support from the Chaudhries, neither 
the PPP nor the PML-N are currently in a position to form a 
government.  While the Chaudhries are leaning strongly towards 
the PML-N, they were concerned that party leader Nawaz Sharif 
might not be interested either in forming a government or in 
reconciling with the PML.  The PPP, which is desperate to 
achieve its own government in the Punjab, is talking with the 
Chaudhries as well as independent-minded members of the PML-N 
and PML, but as of March 2 appeared to have found little 
success.  End Summary. 
 
PML Strategy 
 
¶2. (C) Pakistan's two main political parties are both struggling 
to obtain the 187 votes in the provincial assembly necessary to 
form a new government in the Punjab province, much to the 
reported dismay of PPP leaders in Islamabad who had been assured 
by Punjab Governor Salman Taseer that the necessary votes would 
materialize once Shahbaz Sharif was removed.  In a February 28 
meeting with Principal Officer, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and 
Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi repeatedly emphasized that they had made 
no final deal with Governor Taseer to support the PPP in 
electing a new Chief Minister in the Punjab and that they were 
"having fun" receiving emissaries from both the major political 
parties.  Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, who had reportedly been 
encouraging his party to align with the PPP, stated that both 
PPP Chair President Zardari and PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif were 
"untrustworthy."  His elder cousin, and the likely final 
decisionmaker, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, however, chimed in to 
add that the PPP was "unpopular" as well.  The two declared 
themselves open to offers from either side but stated that 
formal terms had not yet been discussed with either party. 
Chaudhry Shujaat offered that the "natural electoral alliance" 
was with the PML-N, but Chaudhry Pervaiz countered that perhaps 
that could come at a later date closer to national elections. 
 
¶3. (C) Chaudhry Pervaiz suggested that his return as Chief 
Minister (he held the job for most of the Musharraf period) was 
a strong possibility in the case of alliance with either side. 
He argued that the PPP candidates for Chief Minister lacked the 
skills to govern the province (former provincial Senior Minister 
Raja Riaz and former provincial Opposition Leader Qasim Zia) or 
would be a public relations disaster (Governor Salman Taseer). 
Chaudhry Shujaat ruled out his party accepting either former 
provincial Finance Minister Tanveer Kaira or federal Defence 
Minister Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar as Chief Minister as both came 
from the Chaudhries home district of Gujrat.  He also added that 
Prime Minister Gilani would block any attempt to move current 
Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi into the job, as he posed 
a potential rival in the Prime Minister's home district fo 
Multan.  Chaudhry Shujaat was skeptical that the Sharif brothers 
wanted to elevate Sardar Zulfiqar Khosa or another PML-N member 
to the post of Chief Minister, as the brothers perpetually 
feared anyone else in the party heading a provincial or federal 
government.  This he felt might make the PML-N more amenable to 
an alliance in which the PML provided the Chief Minister -- 
although he never directly suggested Chaudhry Pervaiz, as the 
candidate for the job in such an alliance. 
 
¶4. (C) Principal Officer inquired about the PML forward block -- 
37 PML members of the provincial assembly who had already 
pledged their support to the PML-N.  The Chaudhries stated that 
they believed 35 of these were recoverable with the right amount 
of political and financial inducement.  Chaudhry Shujaat stated 
that if the alliance with the PPP was eventually chosen, the PML 
would move to disqualify preemptively Ataur Maneka based on his 
repeated public statements in support of the PML-N.  This would 
prevent others from voting against the party out of fear for 
losing their seats.  He noted, however, that disqualification 
would not invalidate the overall Chief Minister election, 
meaning that a PPP alliance was a risk. 
 
¶5. (C) Chaudhry Shujaat noted that unlike the PPP (which had 
provided a meeting with President Zardari) approaches those from 
the PML-N, thus far, had not come directly from Nawaz or Shahbaz 
Sharif but rather through senior party officials (Ishaq Dar, 
Pervaiz Malik, and Ch. Nisar Ali Khan).  He worried that while 
many in the PML-N would like to form a governing coalition with 
the PML, it would still take significant effort to convince 
Nawaz Sharif to lay aside personal differences with the 
Chaudhries.  He characterized the condolence calls from Nawaz 
and Shahbaz Sharif on the death of his mother as "helpful" but 
noted that no political breakthroughs had been achieved in those 
meetings, only a thawing of relations.  Chaudhry Shujaat noted 
that media magnate Majid Nizami (owner of the Nation, the 
right-wing Nawa-i-Waqt, and Waqt television) was working to 
convince Nawaz Sharif to move towards a PML alliance.  At the 
end of the meeting, Chaudhry Shujaat pulled Principal Officer 
away from his cousin and whispered that the Principal Officer 
should meet with Nizami and with Nawaz or Shahbaz Sharif and try 
to help achieve a PML/PML-N deal. 
 
PPP Worries about a Majority 
 
¶6. (C) In separate February 28 meetings with Principal Officer, 
PPP Secretary General Jehangir Badr and former PPP Provincial 
Assembly Opposition Leader and Chief Minister hopeful Qasim Zia 
revealed that President Zardari blamed Governor Taseer for the 
current political crisis.  They stated that the Governor had 
assured President Zardari that he had the required numbers and a 
final deal with the PML prior to the verdict and the subsequent 
imposition of governor's rule.  Zia claimed that the PPP senior 
leaders now recognized that Taseer had been either overly 
optimistic in his estimates or completely "out-of-touch with 
ground realities."  Badr felt that there was "little hope" of 
gaining either the required PML deal (which he argued most in 
the party still opposed) or of convincing independents or 
independent-minded PML-N types to support a PPP candidate.  Zia 
believed that a deal was still possible with the PML, 
particularly once they had been rebuffed by the Sharifs, who he 
argued were in no mood to cut a deal that would resolve the 
political crisis.  He also held out hope for getting some 
forward block to switch sides, but only after the party clearly 
revealed who was going to be the Chief Minister candidate -- 
something that up until now the party had resisted.  Former PPP 
Senior Minister Raja Riaz in a March 2 meeting with Principal 
Officer stated that the PML had stonewalled on any deal through 
the weekend and that he was not optimistic for a quick end to 
governor's rule, which he (and the other two leaders) all agreed 
had become a public relations disaster. 
 
PML-N Protests Die Down 
 
¶7. (C) The PML-N backed off its province-wide protest strategy 
on March 1.  Only small demonstrations (a few hundred people) 
occurred on March 1 at so-called "hunger strike camps" that the 
party had established in all districts of the province.  Nawaz 
Sharif addressed a large gathering at Jamia Naeemia (a 
conservative Brailvi madrassa in Lahore whose leadership was 
responsible for violent street protests in Lahore in February 
2006 over the Danish cartoons).  Shahbaz Sharif addressed a 
conference on human rights atrocities in Swat, organized by 
civil society activists at Lahore's Al-Hamra Hall.  On March 2, 
Nawaz Sharif addressed a gathering of nearly 2000 in the rural 
district of Narowal (central Punjab), while Shahbaz Sharif 
addressed a rally of around 7500 in the southern city of 
Bahawalpur.  According to the party's Central Finance Secretary 
Pervaiz Malik, this change in strategy was taken primarily to 
focus the party's efforts on demonstrations were senior leaders 
would be present and to shore-up support from like-minded 
elements in the civil society and madrassa communities.  Malik 
stated that the party would limit its province-wide protests 
while it prepared for the March 12-16 long march to and sit-in 
at Islamabad.  PML-N MPAs attempted to hold a legally 
questionable session at the now-unlocked Provincial Assembly 
building on March 2, primarily to speak against the imposition 
of governor's rule.  They abandoned their efforts upon learning 
that news media was barred from entering the Assembly building. 
 
Comment 
 
¶8. (C) The PML holds the key to forming a new Punjab government. 
 The Chaudhries are carefully considering their best political 
option but appear to be leaning strongly towards the PML-N. 
Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain appears to have effectively overruled 
Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi and his son Moonis' initial enthusiasm 
towards the PPP and is making the final decisions on any 
governing alliances without regards for the Elahis' personal 
political ambitions.  Provided the Sharifs are interested in 
making a deal to remain in the Punajb government, a still 
as-yet-questionable proposition, the PPP may find that its 
attempt to seize the provincial government through 
disqualification has failed.  In such a scenario, President 
Zardari will be left with the unpalatable options of either 
taking the public relations hit of continuing an unpopular 
governor's rule for an extended period of time or admitting 
defeat and allowing the PML-N and PML to form a provincial 
government with the PPP in opposition.  End Comment. 
 
 
HUNT