VZCZCXYZ0015
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKG #0245/01 0861414
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 271414Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7456
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000245 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR (ACADIEUX)(VDEPIRRO)(WSMITH) 
WHA/EPSC (MROONEY) (FCORNEILLE) 
EEB/ESC/IFD/EPC (MCMANUS) 
SANTO DOMINGO FOR FCS AND FAS 
TREASURY FOR ERIN NEPHEW 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/28/2024 
TAGS: ECON ENRG SOCI EFIN EINV ETRD IADB IBRD TRYS
IMF, XL, JM 
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: TWIN DEFICITS AND A USD 1 BILLION 
SHORTFALL 
 
REF: A. KINGSTON 223 
     ¶B. KINGSTON 91 
     ¶C. KINGSTON 45 
 
Classified By: CDA James T.Heg for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
 SUMMARY 
--------- 
 
¶1. (C) Jamaica is facing a classic twin deficit problem, with 
both fiscal and balance of payments deficits rising quickly. 
The 2008-09 National budget will face a deficit of six 
percent of GDP, according to Finance Minister Audley Shaw. 
World Bank Country Representative Badrul Haque estimates that 
this deficit could rise to over 12 percent of GDP by next 
year unless serious mitigation measures are implemented.  The 
question remains as to whether the Government of Jamaica 
(GOJ) has the political will to follow through on aggressive 
reforms.  The World Bank estimates that the GOJ will require 
nearly USD 1 billion to fill the financing gap.  About 
one-third of these funds already have been secured from 
multilaterals; the balance may need to come from the IMF. 
Jamaica has faced significant financial challenges before, 
but never in such an adverse global climate. END SUMMARY. 
 
Usual "Muddle Through" Approach Could Be Disastrous 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶2. (C) It is uncertain if the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP)-led 
government is willing to make a range of difficult and 
politically explosive choices including raising taxes, 
cutting public spending and reducing social services.  Some 
measures being considered are a new gasoline tax.  The last 
time this was proposed in April, 1999, there were island-wide 
riots over three-days, which affected commerce in general and 
tourism specifically as visitors were stranded in their 
hotels or at airports.  The ensuing riots forced the 
government to rescind the proposed gas tax).  Successive 
administrations of the GOJ have believed they can always 
&muddle through8 economic problems no matter how severe. 
However, this time around that approach could end in 
disaster. 
 
Other Measures On The Table 
--------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Another option being considered is to freeze and/or 
cut public sector wages.  Dwight Nelson, Minister without 
Portfolio in the Ministry of Finance and Public Service, told 
Emboffs on March 19 that a wage freeze was all but secured. 
Public sector wages and salaries account for the second 
largest part of GOJ expenditures, second only to service on 
the public debt. Currently, public debt-to-GDP stands at 114 
percent, one of the highest in the world.  Public sector 
workers have been allotted a seven percent salary increase 
for the upcoming fiscal year. 
 
¶4. (C) Another option being considered is to apply the 16.5 
percent General Consumption Tax (value added tax) to items 
that are currently zero rated. Other &sin8 taxes such as 
alcohol and cigarettes are likely to rise as well.  Property 
taxes and various user fees may also increase.  This new 
package of taxes will fuel further policy induced inflation, 
affecting price increases across the island. 
 
Twin Deficits and Re-Visit to IMF? 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Given the rising trade deficit and by extension 
balance of payment deficit (the second of the twin deficits) 
there has been significant instability in the foreign 
exchange market (reftels).  The currency has depreciated by 
more than 10 percent since January 1.  With this in mind, 
Bank of Jamaica (Central Bank) Governor Derrick Latibeaudiere 
may anticipate further foreign exchange market instability 
and by extension an attack on his highly guarded Net 
International Reserves (NIR). 
 
¶6. (C) The NIR currently stand at USD 1.6 billion, down from 
a high of USD 2.25 billion last year.  According to Courtney 
Williams, Acting Deputy Financial Secretary in the Ministry 
of Finance and Public Service, Latibeaudiere,s fear has led 
him to encourage Shaw to approach the IMF to seek balance of 
payment support.  It is worth noting that there are personal 
tensions between Latibeaudiere--who acts as if he is 
 
 
independent of his boss Shaw--and the technocrats at the 
Ministry of Finance.  (NOTE: Viralee Latibeaudiere, the 
Commissioner Designate of Taxation, indicated to Emboffs on 
March 25 that the GOJ is five or six percent away from 
hitting its tax revenue collection targets for the year.  END 
NOTE). 
 
Multilateral Solutions? 
----------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) With the capital markets frozen because of the global 
financial crisis, Jamaica has little chance of accessing 
these and will be forced instead to rely on multilaterals. 
Even if credit conditions were normal, the recent downgrade 
of Jamaica,s credit rating by Moody,s and Standard and 
Poor,s (reftels) would have diminished the GOJ,s ability to 
tap credit.  For the upcoming fiscal year, Jamaica has been 
able to secure USD 170 million from the IDB in policy-based 
loans, another 100 million in concessionary loans from the 
World Bank, and USD 33 million from the Caribbean Development 
Bank (CDB).  However, it is estimated that most of these 
loans will not become available until well into the fiscal 
year.  On March 23, Emboffs met with local representatives of 
the Embassy of Japan on March 23 who said they are 
considering a concessionary loan for project financing of 
nearly USD 55 million.  The Japanese Embassy also is 
concerned about the GOJ,s ability to weather the current 
crisis. 
 
All Three Pillars of Economy Are Threatened 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Remittances, Bauxite, and Tourism account for just 
under half of GDP, and together form the three pillars of the 
local economy.  Jamaica,s USD 2 billion in remittances have 
until recently been a model of resilience. (NOTE: Even after 
the 9-11 attacks and the ensuing economic downturn in the US 
economy, remittances continued to grow in Jamaica. END NOTE). 
Over the past six months, remittances have been declining, 
but the pace has increased in 2009.  Remittances are down an 
average of 12 percent per month, and slumped to an 18 percent 
decline in February 2009. 
 
¶9.  (C) The temporary closure (possibly permanent) of two 
Russian-owned bauxite facilities (reftels) will result in a 
loss of USD 100 million in tax revenue (bauxite levy), as 
well as income tax from lost jobs.  Althougt tourism arrivals 
have risen slightly over last year -- there were 464,589 
visitors from December 15 to March 14 this year, up from 
453,000 for the same period last year-- deep discounts by 
hotels are reducing profit margins.  Sandals, a major resort 
chain, is advertising &once in a lifetime 55 percent off 
offers8 in the U.S. market.  If the GOJ begins reducing 
public expenditures for police and security, the move could 
lead to a further rise in crime.  Any high-profile incidents 
of crime against tourists could seriously depress the sector. 
 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
¶10. (C) The GOJ held a Cabinet meeting on March 26 to discuss 
the budget and the fiscal challenges.  The Ministry of 
Finance and Public Service is collecting a range of data that 
should give the GOJ a better understanding of the current 
economic situation by next week.  There will likely be 
negative political fallout if the JLP-led government returns 
to the IMF for assistance, but no other options can be seen 
on the horizon.  With a slim 32 to 28 majority in Parliament 
the opposition People's National Party (PNP) will likely try 
to take advantage of the situation.  The biggest risk is that 
the GOJ is slow to act, thinking a "muddle through" approach 
can succeed one more time.  END COMMENT 
HEG