VZCZCXYZ0002
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKG #0059/01 0211532
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 211532Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7216
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 0551
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0543
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY 2352
RUCNFB/FBI WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM J7 MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000059 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT PASS CENTRAL AMERICAN CARIBBEAN BASIN COLLECTIVE 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CAR 
(ANDRE CADIEUX) INR/IAA (PETER KNIGHT) 
TREASURY FOR IA/WH (ERIN NEPHEW) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/21/2019 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR SNAR EFIN ASEC KCOR CARICOM
IBRD, IDB, CDB, FBI, JM, XL 
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION WARNS OF 
POSSIBLE LARGE-SCALE SOCIAL UNREST 
 
REF: A. 08 KINGSTON 837 (222015Z SEP 08)(NOTAL) 
     ¶B. 08 KINGSTON 933 (311857Z OCT 08)(NOTAL) 
     ¶C. 08 KINGSTON 1040 (101902Z DEC 08)(NOTAL) 
     ¶D. 08 KINGSTON 1094 (221925Z DEC 08)(NOTAL) 
     ¶E. KINGSTON 45 (201648Z JAN 09)(NOTAL) 
     ¶F. 08 KINGSTON 176 (271832Z FEB 08)(NOTAL) 
 
Classified By: CDA JAMES T. HEG, Reasons 1.5 (B) AND (D) 
 
Summary and Comment 
--------------------- 
 
1.(C)  A deteriorating economy, high unemployment and food 
prices, and resurgent inflation could plunge Jamaica into 
large-scale social unrest, according to former Prime Minister 
(PM) and Leader of the Opposition Portia Simpson Miller 
(PSM); she gave her dire warning during a farewell courtesy 
call by Ambassador Brenda L. Johnson, who ends a three-year 
posting and returns to the USA on January 20.  PSM claimed 
that, thus far, she had acted responsibly by not fomenting 
unrest, but ominously warned that "if the people hit the 
streets, we'll be unable to stop them." 
 
2.(C)  Comment:  All too aware of her populist appeal to poor 
Jamaicans, the charismatic PSM, who indeed has kept a low 
profile in recent weeks, may have calculated that public 
frustrations are not yet broad and deep enough to plunge the 
country into chaos so severe as to imperil the survival of 
the current government.  However, with Jamaica's economic 
plight worsening by the day, the political pendulum now 
probably is swinging in her direction, and her calculus could 
change.  End Summary and Comment. 
 
3.(SBU)  Ambassador Brenda L. Johnson, accompanied by USAID 
Mission Director and EmbOff, paid a fareweQcourtesy calQ 
January 16 on the Leader of Opposition and President of the 
People's National Party (PNP), the charismatic former Prime 
Minister (PM) Portia Simpson Miller (PSM).  PSM was 
accompanied by PNP Vice President and former Minister of 
Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade Anthony Hylton.  Ambassador 
noted that visits by the Vice President of China, the UK's 
Prince Charles, and King Juan Carlos of Spain would help 
raise Jamaica's international profile.  In response to 
Ambassador's inquiry, PSM expressed optimism about her 
political future, but said she was sorry to see the 
Ambassador's departure.  She expressed sincere gratitude for 
all that the Ambassador and the U.S. had contributed to 
Jamaica; during her nine months as PM, she had been impressed 
by the steady stream of equipment, vehicles, and training for 
Jamaica's Defence Force (JDF) and Constabulary Force (JCF), 
as well as the myriad assistance programs in justice, 
anti-corruption, and economic development.  She recalled the 
critical U.S. support to the Caribbean states during the 
Second World War, and said that, despite ups and downs, USG 
assistance had remained strong ever since. 
 
4.(SBU)  Mission Director noted that revitalization of 
Jamaica's potentially lucrative cocoa sector would be an area 
of focus for USAID in coming months, and said she was pleased 
that Washington had been able to provide USD 5 million for 
repairing roads and rural schools heavily damaged by 
Hurricane Gustav.  Ambassador noted that the recent visit of 
the High Speed Vessel USS SWIFT had been a great civic action 
success, and was glad that the vessel would return in April. 
Ambassador reiterated that fighting corruption was vital to 
both the U.S. and Jamaica.  Mission Director noted that, 
acting on the recommendation of a visiting anti-corruption 
team, the National Integrity Action Forum would be launched 
at the University of the West Indies (UWI)'s Mona campus on 
January 28; she hoped that PSM would attend.  PSM then 
recounted how, in the wake of the scandal surrounding 
distribution of Cuban light bulbs (reftel F), the PNP had 
established an internal committee to root corruption out of 
the party in preparation for its eventual return to power. 
She then said she soon would resume her "Portia's House Call" 
program of regular unannounced visits to communities in order 
 
to take the pulse of the people. 
 
5.(C)  PSM then opined that the current Jamaica Labour Party 
(JLP) Government was "not speaking to the people" and "not 
making clear to the people" the gravity of the country's 
severe economic problems (reftels C,D,E); the media also were 
not addressing these serious issues.  She claimed that, if 
the JLP had been in opposition while the country underwent 
such a crisis, by now "roads would have been blocked; if the 
people pour out onto the streets, no one can control them." 
She said Finance Minister Audley Shaw at first had downplayed 
the effect of the U.S. downturn on Jamaica, claiming that no 
rollback of prices was needed; only when the Jamaican dollar 
had declined sharply had Shaw reversed himself and considered 
ways to bring down prices.  She then claimed that, when 
Minister of Industry and Commerce Karl Samuda had telephoned 
her to ask her advice, she had replied that "we'll help" by 
not staging or endorsing large-scale demonstrations even 
though "the people wanted to go to the streets...if the 
people hit the streets, we'll be unable to stop them.  We 
will support the government on any initiatives which are 
pro-people; but we also will support the rights of the 
people."  To this point, she claimed, the PNP had acted 
responsibly by not fomenting unrest. 
 
6.(SBU)  PSM observed that Jamaica faced serious trouble with 
declining prices for bauxite, doubts about divestment of the 
sugar estates, and difficulties with Air Jamaica (reftels 
B,C,D,E).   Samuda's publicly decrying the high prices 
grocers were charging for basic foodstuffs "could lead to 
riots in supermarkets."  She then recounted several cases in 
which she had had to supply poor people with food and 
medicine from her constituency office (Note: PSM represents 
St. Andrews Southwest, one of the poorest of Kingston's inner 
city areas.  End note.)  She claimed that malnutrition was 
becoming a serious problem, and that PM Golding had been 
making dangerous statements on the health situation by 
maintaining that "the people are overburdening the system." 
She claimed that, in reality, insulin and chemotherapy were 
beyond the reach of many who needed them.  Hylton then 
pointed out that the JLP Government had erred in introducing 
free medical appointments and free education; years ago, 
former PM P.J. Patterson (PNP) had considered this, but had 
rejected the proposal because it inevitably would have led to 
increased ancillary fees ) exactly what was now happening. 
PSM then claimed that she had refrained from making public 
numerous cases of medical malpractice by the government "to 
avoid upheaval."  Mission Director concluded by assuring PSM 
that USAID would continue its support for education through 
the Education Transformation Program of the Ministry. 
HEG