VZCZCXRO0844
RR RUEHBZ RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHDU #0011/01 0201529
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 201529Z JAN 09
FM AMCONSUL DURBAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1388
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 0761

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DURBAN 000011 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR AF/S 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SF
SUBJECT: DA LEADERS CONFIDENT OF SUCCESS DESPITE HURDLES AT NATIONAL 
AND LOCAL LEVELS 
 
REF: 08 CAPE TOWN 238; 08 PRETORIA 2196 
 
DURBAN 00000011  001.3 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU)  Summary: Senior Democratic Alliance (DA) leaders are 
interested to see how the newly formed Congress of the People 
(COPE) performs in the next election, but are unconvinced the 
party will threaten the DA's own prospects at the polls.  Senior 
KwaZulu Natal DA representatives related that DA campaign goals 
-- winning the Western Cape and keeping the African National 
Congress (ANC) from obtaining a two-thirds majority in the 
national legislature -- remain unchanged from last year.  There 
are few signs the DA has been significantly hurt by the 
formation of COPE in KwaZulu Natal or nationally, but the party 
may be hindered in the short term by the departure of several 
senior members.  End Summary. 
 
 "What Do You Make of COPE?" 
 
¶2. (SBU)  DA Deputy Chief Whip Mike Ellis, parliamentarian 
Gareth Morgan, KwaZulu Natal Provincial Director Penny Tainton, 
and Msunduzi councilor Sizwe Wiseman met with the Consul General 
and visiting Pretoria Poloff on January 16.  They began the 
meeting by asking if they could gain a sense from U.S. diplomats 
of their view of COPE before launching into their own 
observations about the new party.  Ellis related, "We will be 
fascinated by how well COPE will do."  Speaking about COPE on 
the national level, he characterized the formation of COPE as 
more dangerous to the ANC than to his own party and said that 
the "ANC is rattled, even more so by the [Supreme Court of 
Appeal] court ruling on Monday."  The delegation assessed COPE 
would hurt support for the ANC, but contended the new party 
lacks a strong campaign message and there remain questions about 
how effective COPE President Mosiuoa Lekota can be as a leader. 
Ellis claimed the DA is unconcerned about COPE Deputy Secretary 
General, and KwaZulu Natal native, Deirdre Carter.  He quipped, 
"We do not even know who she is."  (Note:  Many political 
analysts and pundits claim COPE chose Carter to appeal to the 
white, liberal voters who favor the DA.  End Note.)  Ellis did 
say, however, that the DA "sees COPE as an ally." 
 
Continuity in DA National Strategy Despite Re-Branding 
 
¶3. (SBU)  Ellis and Morgan concurred that the DA's election 
strategy -- winning Western Cape and keeping the ANC from 
gaining a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly -- 
remained the same from last year before COPE was formed and 
before Zille re-branded the party.  The delegation said that it 
would campaign vigorously through television advertisements and 
market itself as the "trusted hand in coalition building" 
because working with other parties is the future of South 
African politics.  Morgan also noted that this campaign would 
"really be about Helen Zille."  The Consul General then asked if 
the campaign was not also about the strength of some local DA 
leaders.  In replying, Morgan backtracked, but only slightly, 
and noted that Zille would be crucial to success.  (Note: 
Morgan's response showed that the party's characterization of 
the campaign is somewhat contradictory because most pundits and 
political analysts see the election as also being about whether 
the party's efforts to restructure and bring in new voters -- 
non-white voters -- have been successful.  End Note.)  He 
related that the DA would primarily campaign nationally in black 
areas and there would not be many images of Zille campaigning in 
white areas.  However, Morgan said that in the end the DA is 
really hoping that it will be in position to change voters' 
minds right before they go to the polls.  The delegation agreed 
that "we must show that we care." 
 
DA Has Realistic Expectations in KZN 
 
¶4. (SBU)  DA leaders primarily spoke to how poorly other parties 
will perform and admitted their own weaknesses in the province. 
The delegation's strategy for the province appears to be 
promoting Zille to attract new voters across racial lines based 
on her track record of performance in Cape Town.  However, 
attracting non-white voters remains difficult and the best they 
could say about their party's chances in KZN was when Ellis 
related that the DA has restructured and that "this province was 
a leader in restructuring."  Morgan followed by saying that "you 
can only project voting totals when you can project voter 
turnout."  He said that the DA would turn out its voters better 
than any other party in the province.  (Note: In the November 
2008 election registration drive, the DA was successful in 
singing up many new potential voters in KZN's South Coast 
region.  End Note.)   Morgan projected the DA expects to get 
more voters absolutely, but noted that a great deal will hinge 
on the resulting proportions that emerge from actual voter 
turnout and on how well other parties campaign.  (Comment:  The 
delegation, in contrast with other political parties, did not 
 
DURBAN 00000011  002.3 OF 002 
 
 
throw out numerical projections when they lacked a good grasp on 
their prospects in the province.  Other parties have made 
explicit projections for their results in the province, often 
based on dubious polling from hired firms or their own 
assumptions.  The DA representatives volunteered that two polls 
they commissioned from reputable entities produced contradictory 
results; this perhaps explains their lack of certainty. End 
Comment.) 
 
¶5. (SBU)  Turning to how other parties will perform, the 
delegation assessed the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) is losing 
ground in the province.  They said that money is a problem for 
the IFP since they no longer have access to the government's 
patronage network.  Ellis and Morgan thought that Prince 
Mangosuthu Buthelezi's remarks in 2007 that he would step down 
hurt the party because "everyone knew there was no clear 
successor in place."  The delegation agreed that the IFP's 
selection of national chairperson Zanele Magwaza-Msibi as the 
party's premier candidate is a risk because she is "unknown and 
disrespectful."  Ellis said that COPE is not as strong in the 
province like elsewhere, but he hopes that COPE and the IFP will 
do well to weaken the ANC.  He noted that Zuma has wide support 
in the province, but that "many question his personality." 
 
¶6. (SBU)  Morgan related one of the DA's biggest weaknesses in 
the province has been their inability to tap into the Indian 
vote.  He said there are voters -- particularly within Amichand 
Rajbansi's Minority Front -- that will always be closed to the 
DA.  Ellis added, "The Indian community is a difficult community 
to read for the future." 
 
Loss of Senior Leaders Unsettling in the Short Term 
 
¶7. (SBU)  The loss of Leader of the Opposition in the National 
Assembly Sandra Botha, former DA Chief Whip Douglas Gibson, and 
parliamentarian Sheila Camerer to foreign ambassadorial 
positions presents an immediate challenge to the DA in the 
months ahead. Some DA members were incensed by decisions taken 
by Gibson and Camerer to seek positions overseas, although Ellis 
explained that the moves by Gibson and Camerer were  more 
palatable because "they were due to retire anyway." Ellis said, 
"Quite frankly there are a lot of us in the DA that were 
[ticked] off that Botha decided to leave."  He added, "Botha 
would not have been re-elected anyway, but the departure still 
does not look good."  He related that what angered most within 
the party about her decision is that it was clear she made the 
move after negotiating "behind our backs."  Morgan sought to 
turn the departures into a good news story for the DA, saying 
that the moves give room to new, younger members of the party 
for the future.  Ellis agreed, saying that the "new blood" would 
be good for the party over the long term because so many members 
have been around for so long. 
 
Comment 
 
¶8. (SBU)  Like most opposition parties, the DA is hoping that 
COPE does not eat into its support base.  Their senior 
leadership seems unconvinced the party will threaten its own 
prospects and the party's goals of winning the Western Cape and 
keeping the ANC from reaching a two-thirds majority appear as 
attainable as ever.  The major hurdle to attain their goals is 
quickly promoting new leaders to offset the departures of some 
senior stalwarts; this should be taken care of after the list 
process is complete.  The story for DA success in KwaZulu Natal, 
however, is much different.  The delegation's remarks suggest 
that the party's best hope may be for the DA to turn out its 
supporters and hope the ANC fails to win an absolute majority so 
it can be part of a ruling coalition after the election.  The DA 
recognizes that it has not yet made inroads into the Indian 
community and they do not appear to be winning over disgruntled 
ANC members.  In the end, the best they may be able to hope for 
here is that their willingness, and ability, to work in 
coalitions can serve them well here if they, the IFP, and COPE 
can weaken the ANC's control of the province. 
DERDERIAN