VZCZCXRO1822
OO RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC
DE RUEHBJ #4479/01 3441141
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 091141Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1289
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 004479 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2028 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ENRG EDEV PINR PBTS CH ZK
SUBJECT: PRC SCHOLARS SAY XINJIANG SECURITY IS TOP PRIORITY 
FOR CHINA-CENTRAL ASIA RELATIONS 
 
Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson. 
Reasons 1.4 (b/d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  China seeks to improve political and 
economic relations with Central Asia primarily to ensure PRC 
domestic security, especially in the restive Xinjiang region 
given deep cultural and religious links between China's 
western ethnic minorities and Central Asia, according to PRC 
scholars.  China has increased its soft power projection in 
the region, and a wide range of PRC Government ministries and 
state-owned enterprises are instructed to contribute to this 
effort.  Beijing seeks to avoid friction with Russia over 
Central Asia, but this may be difficult given Russia's 
reassertion of influence in the region.  Beijing views the 
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a vehicle for 
mitigating potential China-Russia friction in the region. 
End Summary. 
 
¶2. (C) PolOff discussed trends in China's relations with the 
countries of Central Asia with Xia Yishan, senior research 
fellow at the MFA-affiliated China Institute of International 
Studies (CIIS) on November 21, and Chen Jiejun from the 
Ministry of State Security-affiliated China Institutes of 
Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) on November 20. 
 
Primary PRC Interest:  Securing Xinjiang 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) CICIR's Chen Jiejun argued China's primary interest in 
Central Asia is the need to ensure security and social 
stability in western China, particularly restive Xinjiang 
Uighur Autonomous Region (XUAR), which shares many cultural 
and religious characteristics with Central Asian countries. 
China closely monitors its western border to fight against 
trans-national separatist and terrorist groups that seek 
refuge in Central Asia.  Beijing believes that the 
cooperation of governments in Central Asia is critical for 
the success of this effort, Chen stressed.  CIIS's Xia Yishan 
added that Xinjiang's multi-ethnic mix makes the Central 
Government's effort especially important; while ethnic 
Uighurs are the plurality in Xinjiang, the region is home to 
smaller groups of Tajiks, Kazakhs and others who feel a 
stronger cultural connection to Central Asia than to China's 
ethnic Han majority.  Beijing perceives a need to generate 
goodwill among local people in Central Asia in order to 
counter news coming out of Xinjiang of convictions of ethnic 
minorities for separatist activities.  Xia added that 
maintaining security in Xinjiang is critical for China's 
national security, as made clear by the threats to the 
Beijing Olympics that originated from China's west. 
 
Reaching Out to Central Asia 
---------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) CICIR's Chen said that Beijing seeks to fulfill its 
objective of security in Xinjiang and ensuring that Beijing 
can obtain the cooperation of governments in Central Asia 
through the projection of soft power and through efforts to 
portray China as a supportive partner.  China has found that 
governments in the region are receptive to its overtures 
given their ongoing struggles to demonstrate legitimacy 
through meeting the basic economic needs of their 
populations.  China has been increasing its support on a 
range of fronts, including educational exchange, 
scholarships, security cooperation, training programs for 
government officials, trade and infrastructure investment. 
Chen noted 1500 Kazakhs study in China each year through 
government incentive programs, up from virtually none just a 
few years ago.  CIIS's Xia asserted that Central Asian 
leaders, particularly in Astana and Tashkent, are keenly 
aware of growing PRC interest in the region and seek to 
leverage their role in regional security to maximize benefits 
from China and create a counter-balance against Russia's 
traditional hegemony in the region. 
 
A Comprehensive Effort in Beijing 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) China's MFA has the lead on the effort to improve 
relations with Central Asia, but the MFA appeals to top-level 
leadership to ensure other line ministries are supporting the 
goals that fall within their portfolios.  CIIS's Xia said 
that numerous Chinese ministries and state-run enterprises 
are involved in the effort and have been directed by senior 
leadership on the region's importance for China's internal 
security.  Beijing has placed particular emphasis on law 
enforcement cooperation, stationing liaison police officers 
in the region and sending law enforcement delegations. 
Bilateral and multilateral interactions are invariably aimed 
at "increasing mutual trust," which Chen suggested means 
developing an understanding among Central Asian governments 
 
BEIJING 00004479  002 OF 003 
 
 
of the domestic and trans-national security considerations 
that drive Beijing's policy in the region. 
 
The Need to Avoid Friction with Russia 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Chinese policy in the region is carefully considered 
in order to avoid friction with Russia while expanding the 
space for Central Asian cooperation on security measures, 
according to Chen.  In the effort to project Chinese 
influence in the region, China sees Russia as an important 
but unreliable partner, as seen in Moscow's willingness to 
risk instability through its actions in Georgia.  Beijing 
fears that similar interventions in Central Asia would 
undermine China's efforts to control its population in 
Xinjiang by setting back prospects for a docile and 
cooperative Central Asian region.  CIIS's Xia warned that, 
because of rising Chinese influence in Central Asia, the 
potential for Russia-China tension remains.  He stressed 
China's belief that after withdrawing from the region in the 
1990s, Russia is seeking to reassert hegemony, giving China's 
efforts to avoid conflict increased urgency.  He acknowledged 
that China must take care to avoid friction with Russia even 
in its outreach to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan despite their 
geographic distance from Russia. 
 
Russia Relations Important for Global Issues 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) The two regional powers' differing interests in the 
regional energy market underscore the potential for conflict, 
Xia said, especially given China's need to maintain energy 
supplies as a pillar of its rapid economic growth.  Xia 
asserted that China seeks a voice with Russia to help it 
avoid conflict with the United States over NATO expansion, 
Georgia and other issues, given that renewed U.S.-Russia 
conflict would not be in China's interest. 
 
SCO as Tool for Deconflicting Russia, PRC Influence 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶8. (C) Xia pointed to the need to avoid friction with Russia 
as a primary purpose for the development of the Shanghai 
Cooperation Organization (SCO).  He said that China continues 
to be the main driver for the SCO, with Beijing continually 
seeking to "pull Russia deeper" into the organization.  The 
SCO having moved on from its origins as a forum for resolving 
border conflicts, Xia said that Beijing believes that by 
reaching consensus in the SCO on potentially controversial 
issues between the two countries, China can avoid being seen 
by Russia as an adversary even as it expands its influence in 
the region and deepens cooperation among Central Asian 
states.  CICIR's Chen stressed that the strong emphasis in 
SCO rhetoric on enhancing mutual trust derives from this need 
to both reduce the potential for conflict with Russia and 
increase the cooperation Beijing receives on security issues. 
 
Economic Cooperation Driven by Security Needs 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (C) According to CICIR's Chen, China also sees economic 
cooperation with Central Asia as a top priority, given the 
region's importance for the production and particularly 
transportation of energy resources.  He stressed that 
economic problems in Central Asia have a direct impact on 
China, and Beijing perceives a strong interest in ensuring 
economic growth in the region through deeper economic links 
with China.  While economic agreements are often seen as the 
"low-hanging fruit" of multilateral arrangements, Chen argued 
that these agreements are in fact seen by Beijing as critical 
pieces in securing China's western border and maintaining 
domestic security.  This is in contrast to the perception 
among many observers that China's economic engagement with 
Central Asia is merely about opening more markets for Chinese 
manufacturing goods. 
 
Looking to China during Global Economic Crisis 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶10. (C) With Central Asian governments fearing the effects of 
the current global economic turmoil, China has sought to 
convince governments in the region of its leading role in the 
international community, said Chen.  China has emphasized the 
need for "new approaches," which has generated hope in 
Central Asia that China's efforts to insulate its domestic 
economy against the prospect of global recession will assist 
smaller neighboring countries in riding out the turmoil as 
well. 
 
Public and Private Efforts 
-------------------------- 
 
BEIJING 00004479  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶11. (C) Xia agreed that the expansion of Chinese trade and 
investment in Central Asia is a primary means of engendering 
mutual trust and earning Central Asian assistance in fighting 
trans-national separatist groups.  He said that Beijing seeks 
to promote a mix of public and private investment in the 
region, often through state-led investments in 
infrastructure.  Such projects are popular among local 
government officials and facilitate the flow of natural 
resources to China.  Such economic measures, Xia said, also 
engender development in Xinjiang, reinforcing the security 
gains of stronger relations with Central Asia. 
Piccuta