VZCZCXRO2386
PP RUEHBZ RUEHGI
DE RUEHGI #0251/01 3571347
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 221347Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY BANGUI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0802
INFO RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA PRIORITY 0052
RUEHBZ/AMEMBASSY BRAZZAVILLE PRIORITY 0106
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY 0073
RUEHJB/AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA PRIORITY 0059
RUEHCO/AMEMBASSY COTONOU PRIORITY 0046
RUEHDR/AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM PRIORITY 0041
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 0089
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA PRIORITY 0079
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM PRIORITY 0203
RUEHLGB/AMEMBASSY KIGALI PRIORITY 0059
RUEHKI/AMEMBASSY KINSHASA PRIORITY 0214
RUEHLC/AMEMBASSY LIBREVILLE PRIORITY 0111
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0068
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY 0107
RUEHNJ/AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA PRIORITY 0384
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 0370
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0105
RUEHYD/AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PRIORITY 0364
RUEHGI/AMEMBASSY BANGUI 0988

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGUI 000251 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/C FOR SSARDAR, MASHRAF, SLOPEZ, KWYCOFF; PARIS FOR GDELIA, 
RKANEDA; 
LONDON FOR PLORD; YAOUNDE FOR POL/ECON 
STATE FOR OPS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR ECON EAID CT
SUBJECT: CAR NATIONAL DIALOGUE - POSITIVE FINALE, BUT WAITING FOR THE 
NEW GOVERNMENT ... 
 
REF: BANGUI 250 
 
¶1. (U) The CAR's National Dialogue ended in a seven-hour closing 
ceremony on Saturday, December 20, that brought speeches by 
President Bozize, former President Ange Felix Patasse, and 
Dialogue mediator and former Burundian President Pierre Buyoya. 
Finishing on a positive note as well as on schedule, President 
Bozize promised the implementation of the Dialogue's 
recommendations in his speech, and former President Patasse 
lauded his successor's leadership as well as, surprisingly, 
accepted publicly the International Criminal Court's ongoing 
investigation into 2002-2003 war crimes in the CAR. The ceremony 
also included a recitation of the recommendations of the 
Dialogue's three committees (See Reftel). 
 
¶2. (U) Former President Patasse called current President Bozize 
his `little brother' during his speech, in a gesture widely 
viewed as both conciliatory and sincere, and President Bozize 
accompanied his older successor whom he deposed in a 2003 coup 
back to his chair after embracing him. Dialogue Mediator Buyoya 
expressed satisfaction with the results of the 12-day long 
affair, but noted that the Dialogue's recommendations should be 
implemented so that the Dialogue `acts as a trampoline to bring 
the country out of its past,' to bring a nationwide peace, and 
to allow all parts of society to work together to develop the 
country. 
 
¶3. (SBU) In a hopeful first step, President Bozize gave December 
23 as the date in which he would announce the new, power-sharing 
government. This government promises to include members from all 
seven (7) of the opposing groups which took part in the 
Dialogue: the rebel groups APRD led by Jean-Jacques Demafouth, 
MLCJ led by Abakar Sabone, UFDR led by Daman Zacharia, FDPC led 
by Abdoulaye Miskine, UFR led by Florian Ndjadder as well as the 
opposition groups UFVN led by Henri Pouzere and the more 
powerful MLPC led by Martin Ziguele.  NOTE: The rebel groups are 
not / not all equal in force or political influence, with the 
APRD, the UFDR, and probably the FDPC being the only groups with 
known soldiers in the field in the NW and NE provinces. Among 
the political opposition, Pouzere has led the opposition UFVN 
coalition credibly over the last year, though Ziguele is 
considered more popular and a better rival to Bozize for the 
2010 Presidential election. END NOTE. 
 
¶4. (SBU) COMMENT: The end of the Dialogue brings another sign of 
hope, as well as continued tension to the Central African 
political scene. The President's upcoming announcement of a 
power-sharing / coalition government is positive news, but 
everything depends on whom he chooses as his Ministers. Leaving 
key ministries such as Mines, Interior, Justice, and Water and 
Forests in the hands of his family and close supporters, while 
giving the more inconsequential Ministries of Sport, Tourism, 
Urbanism, etc. to rebel and opposition leaders may not be enough 
to end finally the rebellions in the north and the opposition in 
the capital. (In particular, many rumors in Bangui report that 
the President plans to move his confidant and the notoriously 
corrupt Minister of Mines Sylvain Ndoutingai from Mines to the 
Interior portfolio, just in time to oversee the 2010 elections. 
This would not / not be a sign of trust and good faith.) 
Similarly, choosing the least powerful and most dubious of rebel 
leaders such as Abakar Sabone to include in the government may 
not bring any confidence from the APRD rebels in the northwest 
provinces, if they are excluded. That said, many Central African 
observers judged Bozize's tenor during the dialogue as both 
sincere and vigorous, and he may yet surprise observers and 
appoint a true cross-section of the political opposition, rebel 
leaders, and his own Kwa Na Kwa Presidential majority. 
 
¶5. (SBU) No matter the composition of the government, the GoCAR 
 
BANGUI 00000251  002 OF 002 
 
 
deserves significant credit for a National Dialogue that was a) 
on schedule, b) productive in creating a slate of credible 
improvements to be implemented, c) relatively harmonious and 
civil despite the depth of the political divisions, and d) 
surprisingly inclusive of all of the major parties to the 
country's various conflicts. While the GoCAR had demonstrated 
not a small amount of reticence and occasional intransigence in 
the year-long negotiations for the Dialogue, they ultimately 
passed a global amnesty to allow indicted former President 
Patasse and former Defense Minister Demafouth to return to the 
country, and allowed BONUCA and the international community to 
organize without interference and with occasional government 
support. That said, the GoCAR did not implement the 
recommendations of the previous 2004 Dialogue, and would have to 
go back on some of its policy to implement the results of this 
Dialogue, i.e. the Magistrate's reform law and provisions to the 
electoral code. Despite the flash and pomp of the Dialogue 
ceremony, real progress will lie in the difficult compromises of 
a power-sharing government as well as the slow efforts of 
implementing the recommendations of this forum. END COMMENT 
NEARY ##