VZCZCXYZ0014
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHC #1267 2912056
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 172051Z OCT 08
FM SECSTATE WASHDC
TO RUEHAH/AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT PRIORITY 0000
RUEHTA/AMEMBASSY ASTANA PRIORITY 0000
RUEHEK/AMEMBASSY BISHKEK PRIORITY 0000
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE PRIORITY 0000
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY 0000
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 0000
RUEHNT/AMEMBASSY TASHKENT PRIORITY 0000
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY 0000
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY 0000
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0000

UNCLAS STATE 111267 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL ENRG KSUM EPETUN UN TX UZ TI KZ KG
SUBJECT: DAS KROL'S CONVERSATION WITH MIROSLAW JENCA OF 
THE UN CENTER FOR PREVENTATIVE DIPLOMACY 
 
 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In an October 15 telephone conversation 
with SCA DAS George Krol, Miroslaw Jenca, Director of the UN 
Center for Preventative Diplomacy in Ashgabat, noted the 
leaders of the five Central Asian states who met separately 
during the recent CIS summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan had 
managed to resolve their eve of winter, water and energy 
disputes quickly and pragmatically. Jenca also discussed 
prospects for Turkmenistan's UN resolution on energy 
reliability (formerly energy security), and the priorities of 
the UN Center for Preventative Diplomacy. End Summary 
 
¶2. (SBU) On October 15 the Director of the UN Center for 
Preventative Diplomacy Ambassador Miroslaw Jenca called SCA 
DAS Krol from Ashgabat.  He said he was calling on the eve of 
a meeting of Central Asian Deputy Foreign ministers at the 
Center at which they would approve the priorities for the 
Center for the next three years of operations.  He wanted 
inform Krol of those priorities but also to pass on his 
reflections from the recently concluded CIS Summit meeting in 
Bishkek where he had been an observer. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Leaders Find Mutual Agreement on Sticky Water and 
Energy Issues 
 
Jenca had been invited to attend a meeting of the five 
Central Asian presidents that took place October 10 on the 
margins of the summit.  Jenca was greatly impressed that the 
five Central Asian leaders had in the course of 45 minutes 
pragmatically and efficiently resolved the pre-winter 
disputes on water and energy that had been growing 
increasingly bitter and intractable.  Even Karimov and 
Bakiyev-spoke pragmatically on resolving their energy and 
water differences. Jenca said they discussed without emotion 
what was needed, how much was needed, and what was to be 
done.  The upstream leaders, Rahmon and Bakiyev agreed to the 
amount of water to release to their downstream neighbors 
whose leaders, Karimov, Nazarbayev and Berdimuhamedov agreed 
to supply energy to their upstream colleagues to meet their 
winter needs. Jenca observed the leaders left the meeting 
satisfied that they had avoided the energy and water crises 
facing them this winter. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Jenca emphasized the agreements only covered this 
year, but he thought the atmosphere at the meeting might 
indicate the first steps toward developing a mechanism to 
resolve the sticky water and energy problems more long term. 
It was clear to Jenca these problems could only be resolved 
at the presidential level.  Earlier efforts to address them 
at the ministerial level, such as the September 18 French 
sponsored Paris EU-Central Asia ministerial had only ended in 
acrimony.  Jenca had been a witness there as well and 
recalled the nasty exchange between the Uzbek and Kyrgyz 
foreign ministers over water and the hard time the French had 
negotiating a mention of water in the final communiqu with 
the obdurate Uzbeks.  Jenca noted the agreements reached in 
Bishkek would be finalized and signed by all parties in two 
weeks. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Cooperation on Water and Energy 
 
Jenca claimed all five leaders had agreed in principle on the 
substance of the 1992 water convention that the Kyrgyz and 
Tajiks refuse to sign.  The leaders of the downstream 
countries-Karimov, Nazarbayev, and Berdimuhammedov-noted 
they understood the domestic political reasons preventing 
their upstream colleagues-Rahmon and Bakiyev-from signing or 
publicly endorsing the convention, which recognizes the 
region's contentious rivers as transnational.  Rahmon and 
Bakiyev on the other hand agreed that the rivers are de facto 
transnational and should be treated as such.  Jenca again 
expressed hope this mutual understanding could lend itself to 
developing a more long-term mechanism for managing the 
region's water and energy issues before they become too acute 
every winter. 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Turkmenistan's UN Resolution on Energy Reliability 
 
Jenca noted the leaders discussed the new Turkmen gas 
reserves, which gave Turkmen president Berdimuhammedov the 
opportunity to push for Turkmenistan's draft UN Resolution on 
energy reliability (Jenca noted that the Turkmen had changed 
the terminology from "security" to "reliability.")  The other 
Central Asian leaders gave the Resolution a positive 
reception, but did not commit themselves to co-sponsoring the 
Resolution except for Kazakhstan which has become a 
co-sponsor of the resolution.  Jenca believed middle level 
officials in other Central Asian foreign ministries still had 
questions about the resolution. Answering Jenca's question 
about the U.S. position, DAS Krol mentioned the Turkmen had 
approached the U.S. for support and co-sponsorship of their 
resolution but our experts were still examining it. Jenca 
thought the Turkmen were most interested in this resolution 
as it would endorse Turkmenistan hosting an international 
conference on energy reliability which would flesh out the 
issue. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Priorities for the Center of Preventative Diplomacy 
 
Finally, Jenca noted Deputy Foreign Ministers of the five 
Central Asian states would meet October 16 in Ashgabat to the 
endorse the Center's priorities for the next three years. 
Jenca enumerated these as: 1) water/energy issues; 2) 
cross-border issues; 3) Afghanistan.  On the latter, the 
priority would be to get Central Asian states involved in 
infrastructure projects that would support stability in 
Afghanistan and lead to greater economic development in the 
region as a whole. 
 
¶8. (SBU)  Russia Resurgent 
 
Jenca commented it was clear at both the CIS and Shanghai 
Cooperation Organization (SCO) summits in Bishkek and 
Dushanbe respectively (which he also attended) that Russia is 
a growing factor and player in Central Asia.  Jenca noted 
Russian President Medvedev used his visits at both events to 
sign many deals with the host countries especially in the 
energy and extractive minerals sectors.  Gazprom in 
particular is actively trying to achieve local market 
dominance on gas supplies and pricing.  Jenca concluded that 
Russia clearly wants to dominate, wants to prevent 
instability in the region and is willing to pay for it. 
 
¶9. (SBU)  Comment 
 
We share Jenca's hope that the Central Asian leaders might 
find a way to resolve the region's sticky water and energy 
problems on a more long term basis and more pragmatically 
instead of bickering and waiting until the very last moment 
every winter.  Perhaps they are coming to recognize climate 
change is affecting them all and forcing them to act more 
pro-actively, pragmatically and cooperatively to avoid a 
common disaster. We are also pleased the priorities of 
Jenca's Center very much accord with our own in the region, 
especially in developing greater cooperation with 
Afghanistan.  End Comment. 
RICE