VZCZCXRO2068
RR RUEHDU RUEHJO
DE RUEHTN #0212 2970633
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 230633Z OCT 08
FM AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2852
INFO RUEHSA/AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 6211
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 3173
RUEHJO/AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG 2036

UNCLAS CAPE TOWN 000212 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV SF
SUBJECT:  WESTERN CAPE ANC SPLIT? 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: The African National Congress (ANC) is facing its 
worst political crisis since the end of apartheid 14 years ago. 
Supporters of former President, Thabo Mbeki, who was deposed last 
month by the ANC's National Executive Committee (NEC), are 
threatening to break away from the ANC and form a new political 
party.  National newspapers report that meetings of disgruntled ANC 
members and leaders were held secretly in several provinces, 
including Gauteng, Limpopo, the Free State, the Eastern and the 
Western Cape (WC). End summary 
¶2. (SBU) Mosiuoa Lekota, a former political prisoner and ANC party 
chairman who quit as Defense Minister when Mbeki was forced out as 
president last month, said he and other disillusioned officials 
planned to canvas for support within the ANC to organize a "national 
convention." Lekota, who has since been suspended then expelled by 
the ANC, has been publicly joined by Mluleki George, a former deputy 
cabinet minister, Sam Shilowa, former Premier of Gauteng Province, 
and Willie Madisha, former head of the South African Teachers' Union 
and General Secretary of COSATU,  in their proposal to split from 
the ANC. Groups of dissident ANC members from the Western Cape, the 
Northern Cape, Eastern Cape (where George operates), parts of the 
Free State and Limpopo province also announced they wanted to join 
Lekota. 
¶3. (SBU) In recent weeks the Western Cape branch of the ANC has been 
fraught with problems resulting from factionalism and internal power 
struggles that intensified to such a degree that two rival ANC 
provincial conferences were held. Mbulelo Ncedana led 
representatives from 59 local ANC branches to boycott the provincial 
conference where pro-Zuma supporter Mcebisi Skwatsha was elected 
Provincial Chairman. The immediate effect of the boycott was for 
Skwatsha  to announce that the ANC in the Western Cape had suspended 
five senior regional members for undermining party unity and 
discipline, among them Ncedana. Mbulelo Ncedana then announced his 
resignation from the ANC, paving the way for others who have aligned 
themselves with Lekota's call for a national convention to resign. 
 
¶4. (SBU) On October 17, The Cape Times reported that continued 
infighting and bitter divisions within the ANC had intensified and 
led to a further eleven senior Western Cape ANC members resigning. 
The ANC has tried to downplay any discord within the party. In a 
recent television interview Jacob Zuma conceded that the ANC is 
losing leaders of the "previous generation," but this does not mean 
the ANC's unity is necessarily under severe threat. However, over 
the weekend the friction intensified when more than a 1000 former 
ANC supporters gathered in Philippi, Cape Town to attend a rally 
addressed by Sam Shilowa.  Former Gauteng Premier Shilowa told his 
supporters of the preparations for the formation of a breakaway 
party. Hundreds of disgruntled ANC supporters then tore up their 
membership cards to illustrate their dissatisfaction with the party 
and Jacob Zuma's leadership. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The race for the Western Cape will be heavily contested in 
the next election. The City of Cape Town is already in the hands of 
the opposition alliance and the ANC has been struggling to regain 
its foothold in the province. ANC leaders in the Western Cape have 
traditionally backed Mbeki and with the current dissention in the 
ANC there is a very real possibility that the ANC could lose the 
province in the next election. A study by the University of Cape 
Town's Centre for Social Science Research has found "diminishing 
party loyalties for all parties and the corresponding growth of a 
Qparty loyalties for all parties and the corresponding growth of a 
'floating' or an independent electorate" in South Africa. The 
growing flexibility of voter attitudes highlighted by the research 
is good news for ANC rebels planning a new party to fight next 
year's elections.  The absence of procedures for direct election of 
the president, parliamentarians, and provincial premiers and 
councils frustrates the potential electoral strength of the emerging 
floating group of voters. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Comment: The establishment of a new party would certainly 
intensify election campaigning in the Western Cape. Despite 
opposition parties welcoming a new party, Lekota could possibly harm 
the Democratic Alliance (DA) and Independent Democrats (ID) ability 
to reach out to a broader black constituency, those who did not want 
to vote for the ANC, but did not see either opposition party as a 
credible mass-based opposition. Both the DA and ID's growth 
prospects going forward could be curtailed with Lekota shaping a 
party that defends the Constitution, the rule of law and the 
judiciary. The opposition will now have to find a way of taking on 
Lekota without alienating potential black voters. PolAssistant has 
spoken with a number of DA representatives who all indicated that 
the DA is considering forming an alliance with any new party that 
Lekota establishes and has, in fact, held secret talks with Lekota 
in this regard. End comment.