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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT LOUIS 000331 
 
SIPDIS 
 
ADDIS PASS USAU 
 
AF/E FOR MARIA BEYZEROV 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MP
SUBJECT: PRIME MINISTER DETAILS MOTIVES FOR CABINET 
RESHUFFLE 
 
REF: A. PORT LOUIS 307 
     ¶B. PORT LOUIS 312 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Cesar B. Cabrera for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On September 12, the Prime Minister publicly 
announced both a long-expected cabinet reshuffle and the 
re-appointment of the current president to another five-year 
mandate.  The recent cabinet reshuffle is the first reshuffle 
executed solely by prime ministerial initiative.  In a 
meeting with Ambassador Cabrera, PM Ramgoolam explained his 
rationale for the reshuffle and for the presidential 
appointment.  In addition to his publicly touted quest to 
"modernize his administration by basing his decisions on 
results," Ramgoolam admitted privately that his priorities 
were to specialize portfolios, rid himself of "overwhelming" 
duties, and prevent any possibility of a political alliance 
among the opposition parties.  END SUMMARY 
 
¶2. (C) According to the Prime Minister, who spoke to 
Ambassador Cabrera (with POLOFF as notetaker) in a private 
meeting on 18 September, the PM had several key goals in the 
cabinet reshuffle exercise which was announced on 12 
September.  These goals included preventing an opposition 
alliance of the Mouvement Socialiste Mauricien (MSM) and the 
Mouvement Militant Mauricien (MMM) parties and streamlining 
ministerial duties.  He expects the reshuffle will help 
streamline ministerial performance.  For example, Ramgoolam 
cited the relief of Attorney General Rama Valayden's extra 
duty as Minister of Human Rights and Justice as an attempt to 
allow his Attorney General room to perform more effectively. 
 
¶3. (C) Regarding preventing an alliance between the two 
strongest opposition parties, the MSM and MMM, Ramgoolam said 
that he needs to prevent the MSM/MMM alliance "at all costs." 
Keeping the opposition in check was the PM's primary 
motivation for re-appointing Sir Anerood Jugnauth president. 
Ramgoolam alluded to rumors that MMM leader Paul Berenger 
attempted to persuade President Jugnauth not to accept the 
nomination, and added that Anerood Jugnauth accepted because 
of "his sense of duty superseded all of Berenger's arguments" 
and because his age limits any other options for political 
contribution to his country.  (NOTE: Jugnauth is 78. END 
NOTE.) 
 
¶4. (C) (COMMENT:  In recent months, Ramgoolam has come under 
fire for having more than one Deputy Prime Minister and for 
assigning the Attorney General a ministerial portfolio, both 
of which are against the constitution.  It was perhaps 
surprising, given his candor otherwise, that the PM did not 
admit that some of the reasoning for reshuffling was to 
alleviate recent criticism against his government. END 
COMMENT.) 
 
----------------------------- 
OPINIONS ON CABINET RESHUFFLE 
----------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Some critics of PM Ramgoolam, like Creole community 
leader Father Jocelyn Gregoire, vociferously challenged the 
reshuffle as a lost opportunity to bring more ethnic equality 
to the cabinet.  Gregoire's opinion reflects the struggles 
that Ramgoolam has in winning the Creole vote.  Ramgoolam 
addressed this struggle in his September 18 meeting with 
Ambassador Cabrera by recounting the case of Etienne 
Sinatambou (Creole), who was the former Minister of 
Information Technology and the only Minister who lost his 
ministerial title in the reshuffle; Sinatambou was reassigned 
to be Deputy Speaker of Parliament. Ramgoolam spoke to the 
Ambassador of a discussion he had with Sinatambou before he 
accepted the new position as Deputy Speaker.  According to 
the PM, Sinatambou said he was under pressure from Creole 
leaders not to accept the lesser position because it was 
"non-ministerial."  Ramgoolam insinuated that the Creole 
leaders pressuring Sinatambou were "opportunistic." 
 
¶6. (C) Opposition member Nando Bodha, MSM member and Member 
of Parliament (MP), praised Ramgoolam's handling of the 
reshuffle. In a September 17 meeting with Ambassador Cabrera, 
Bodha commended Ramgoolam's decision to appoint Arvin Boolell 
Foreign Minister and considered Boolell well suited to handle 
the portfolio thanks to his experience working with 
international organizations, such as the European Union. 
Bodha also commended the PM's decision to keep Anerood 
Jugnauth as president.  Bodha, however, was convinced that 
 
PORT LOUIS 00000331  002 OF 002 
 
 
even with a new cabinet, Ramgoolam's Social Alliance will not 
be able to carry out its full term and insistently predicted 
early elections in 2009 following the release of a new 
budget. 
 
------------------------------- 
PREVENTING THE MSM/MMM ALLIANCE 
------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) When asked if Anerood Jugnauth's re-appointment as 
president would prevent an MMM/MSM alliance, Bodha said that 
the re-appointment is a peripheral move and it wouldn't 
affect with whom the MSM makes alliances for projected 2010 
elections. This is similar to press statements made by MMM 
leader Paul Berenger, who said the continuing presidential 
mandate would have no effect on a potential MSM/MMM alliance. 
 Likewise, in press statements, Pravind Jugnauth, MSM leader 
(and son of the re-appointed president) welcomed Anerood 
Jugnauth's re-appointment but added that it would "not stop 
an MMM/MSM alliance." 
 
¶8. (C) In the September 18 meeting with COM, Ramgoolam 
conceded that the presidential re-appointment may not deter 
an MMM/MSM alliance, but that it was a necessary move for him 
to "keep all of his options open."  The PM noted that he 
would have other opportunities to prevent the opposition 
party alignment, including by supporting one side or another 
during a possible upcoming MP bi-election.  In sum, Ramgoolam 
said that it is too soon to broker any public alliance now 
and that he is more than happy to keep his options open. 
 
------------------------------------- 
RAMGOOLAM MORE POPULAR THAN HIS PARTY 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (U) The latest Business Magazine Public opinion survey, 
which looked at the Government's track record and political 
figures' popularity, was taken in mid-August.  When the 
public was asked about their favorite political figure as 
Prime Minister, Ramgoolam came first (31 percent), beating 
Berenger (28 percent) and Pravind Jugnauth (8 percent). 
Ramgoolam remains the most popular figure and has a 55 
percent approval rating.  Although, based on the poll, the 
public still considers Ramgoolam the best fit for the PM 
position, his Social Alliance party is not as popular.  When 
asked for which alliance they would vote if the legislative 
election happened the following Sunday, 41 percent of the 
public said that they would vote for an MMM/MSM alliance, 
while only 29 percent said they would support the Social 
Alliance.   Regarding alliance popularity, the survey shows 
that 49 percent of the population is favorable to the idea of 
a new MMM/MSM alliance, with the majority of support coming 
from the General Population (53 percent), followed by the 
Hindus (50 percent), and Muslims (39 percent).  Only 32 
percent would like to see another Labor Party/MSM alliance, 
and only 21 percent preferred a Labor Party/MMM alliance. 
 
¶10. (C) Ramgoolam seems to have the pulse of the people. His 
decision to change his cabinet and his persistence to prevent 
an MMM/MSM alliance fit well with the latest Business 
Magazine bi-annual public survey published on September 17. 
Despite Ramgoolam's popularity and 55 percent approval 
rating, however, he still has some trouble within the Creole 
community.  According to the survey, out of the 45 percent 
that were dissatisfied with him, 59 percent were from the 
Creole (or General Population) segment of Mauritian society. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶11. (C)  Against the public discontent and opposition 
pressure, Ramgoolam, ever the shrewd politician, is 
deflecting the blame for unpopular policies on 'old guard' 
cabinet members and baiting the swing opposition party (MSM) 
in the same breath, by reshuffling his cabinet and 
re-appointing MSM stalwart Anerood Jugnauth as president. 
Ramgoolam looks to be avoiding any public alliances and to be 
focusing political attention on himself instead.  This could 
explain his rash of unilateral moves as of late, such as his 
unilateral decision to re-shuffle the cabinet and the 
unilateral decision to change constitutional law to allow him 
to have additional vice prime ministers.  Clearly, 
pre-election maneuvering is underway in Mauritius. 
CABRERA