VZCZCXRO0871
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHVL #0622/01 2140526
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 010526Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY VILNIUS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2599
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000622 
 
AMEMBASSY MINSK SENDS 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO
SUBJECT: BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - August 1, 2008 
 
¶1.  The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy 
Minsk. 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
- Militia Disbands Youth Tent Camp (para. 2) 
- Nomination of Representatives to Precinct Election Commissions 
Continues (para. 3) 
- Opposition Parliamentary Hopeful Takes Employer to Court over 
Illegal Dismissal (para. 4) 
- Five Percent of Initiative Groups Denied Registration for 
September Parliamentary Elections (para. 5) 
 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
- Belarus Will Solicit Tender Bids for NPP Construction (para. 6) 
- Standard and Poor's Affirms Belarus Sovereign Credit Ratings 
(para. 7) 
- Growing Investment (para. 8) 
 
International Trade 
------------------- 
 
- Turkcell Buys 80 Percent of Belarus' Cell Phone Operator BeST 
(para. 9) 
 
Quote of the Week (para. 10) 
----------------- 
 
------------- 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
¶2.  Police Disband Youth Tent Camp 
 
Activist of the European Belarus campaign Dmitriy Borodko told 
Belapan news agency July 26 that police detained about 50 youth 
activists near Borisov that same day.  Young people wanted to spend 
the weekend in a tent camp, which was co-sponsored by the civil 
initiative "European Belarus" and to study fundamentals of 
democratic society and election campaigning.  Police harassed many 
detainees on the way to Borisov and did not bother to call parents 
or minors' legal representatives.  Police checked ID's, took 
fingerprints and wrote many detainees up for making a bonfire in a 
forest.  Everybody was released without trial on the same day. 
 
¶3.  Nomination of Representatives to Precinct Election Commissions 
Continues 
 
Secretary of the Central Election Commission (CEC) Nikolay Lozovik 
told the Belapan news agency July 29 that political parties, NGO's, 
labor collectives and citizens are free to nominate representatives 
to the country's 6485 precinct election commissions for September 
parliamentary elections.  The deadline for submitting applications 
to 5-19 person commissions is August 10.  Local authorities will 
review applications and establish commissions by August 13.  In the 
meantime, CEC chairperson Lidiya Yermoshina said during a 
Belapan-organized online conference that CEC "will try to take note" 
of EU suggestions on the registration of candidates and election 
observation. 
 
¶4.  Opposition Parliamentary Hopeful Takes Employer to Court over 
Illegal Dismissal 
 
Leader of the local Belarusian Popular Front cell in the city of 
Kobrin (Brest region) Alexander Mekh told Belapan news agency on 
July 28 that he had filed a lawsuit against his employer, 
Beltransgaz, seeking reemployment and compensation of material and 
moral damage.  Earlier this month his supervisor and the local 
Belarusian KGB chief threatened to dismiss Mekh unless he opted out 
of the parliamentary election race.  Mekh ignored the threat and was 
fired but famously recorded and publicized the talk on the internet. 
 The recording was forwarded to the CEC, which, according to CEC 
chair Yermoshina, re-forwarded it to the General Prosecutor's 
office.  The story seems to be far from being finished. 
 
¶5.  Five Percent of Initiative Groups Denied Registration for 
September Parliamentary Elections 
 
According to Belapan, the CEC announced that as of July 29, 23 
potential initiative groups out of 455 applicants were denied 
registration, or roughly five percent of the total.  United 
Democratic Forces received two denials, thus bringing the number of 
their registrations to 95.  The UDF information center has reported 
no serious violations of the Electoral code at this stage but noted 
that registration of candidates would show if (and how much) the 
authorities can be trusted in the coming election campaign. 
 
 
VILNIUS 00000622  002 OF 002 
 
 
---------------- 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
¶6.  Belarus Will Solicit Tender Bids for NPP Construction 
 
Both Russia's Atomstroyexport and France's Areva responded on July 
29 to Belarus' Energy Ministry invitation to participate in a tender 
for the construction of a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP).  According to 
Belapan, certain Belarusian scientists and officials informally 
opined earlier this month that Atomstroyexport is the best option 
for Belarus for a variety of reasons.  Belarusian officials stated 
that American-Japanese Westinghouse-Toshiba ignored the invitation 
for only for political reasons. 
 
¶7.  Standard and Poor's Affirms Belarus Sovereign Credit Ratings 
 
Standard and Poor's reportedly affirmed sovereign credit ratings it 
gave Belarus a year ago.  The country again received B plus in hard 
currency, BB in long-term loans in national currency and B in 
short-term loans in hard currency and the forecast for all ratings 
is stable.  Although the country's political system is uniquely 
centralized, which makes the government's decision less predictable, 
incomes in the country are "relatively high," state debt is low and 
economic potential is strong.  S&P also notes that higher energy 
bills did not hit Belarus' economy as much as was originally 
expected. 
 
¶8.  Growing Investment 
 
Speaking at Belarus' government regular session on July 29, Deputy 
Prime Minister Vladimir Semashko said the country's economy received 
(through June 2008) 2.8 times more investment than a year ago.  The 
share of foreign investment in total investments was 1.4 percent. 
Semashko also noted that most investments in the first six months 
were channeled to commerce and services, while the government is 
seeking to ensure more investment in industrial and agricultural 
sectors in the first place. 
 
------------------- 
International Trade 
------------------- 
 
¶9.  Turkish Turkcell Buys 80 Percent of Belarus' Cell Phone Operator 
BeST 
 
Belarus' government press service told Prime-Tass that Turkey's 
Turkcell signed an agreement on July 29 to buy 80 percent of 
Belarus' GSM cell phone operator Best.  Turkcell will pay USD 500 
million (or USD 600 million according to conflicting reports) in 
four installments.  State-owned BeST is one of Belarus' three GSM 
cell phone services providers.  It was established in 2004 at the 
initiative of Lukashenko, who vowed that the state would provide 
affordable cell phone services to everybody.  The company started 
its operations in December 2005 but has never been commercially 
viable.  At present, it has 187,000 customers, while the total 
number of cell phone users in Belarus is estimated 7.5 million. 
Turkcell allegedly hopes to secure the remaining market slot of 1 
million people. 
 
----------------- 
Quote of the Week 
----------------- 
 
¶10.  Speaking to senior officials of Brest region on the 
implementation of the 2005-2010 Agricultural Rehabilitation Program, 
Lukashenko said: 
 
"The situation on the world food market has drastically changed for 
the worse -- we see a heavy food crisis.  Today, revolts of the 
hungry spread all over the world...No matter how tough it may sound, 
God gifted us this situation (rising food prices) the way He gifted 
it to oil extractors". 
 
MOORE 
LEADER