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Viewing cable 08USOSCE135, CFE: MAY 20 JCG PLENARY: RUSSIA WANTS GUARANTEES

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08USOSCE135 2008-05-21 16:25 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Mission USOSCE
VZCZCXYZ0010
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHVEN #0135/01 1421625
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 211625Z MAY 08
FM USMISSION USOSCE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5735
INFO RUCNCFE/CONVENTIONAL ARMED FORCES IN EUROPE PRIORITY
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 1665
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUESDT/DTRA-OSES DARMSTADT GE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5-DDPMA-IN/CAC/DDPMA-E// PRIORITY
RUEAHQA/HQ USAF WASHINGTON DC//XONP// PRIORITY
RUEADWD/DA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEASWA/DTRA ALEX WASHINGTON DC//OSAE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L USOSCE 000135 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR VCI/CCA, EUR/RPM 
NSC FOR DOWLEY 
JCS FOR J5/COL NORWOOD 
OSD FOR ISA (PERENYI) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2018 
TAGS: KCFE OSCE PARM PREL RS
SUBJECT: CFE: MAY 20 JCG PLENARY: RUSSIA WANTS GUARANTEES 
ON NAC STATEMENT 
 
Classified By: Chief Arms Control Delegate Hugh Neighbour, 
for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
1.  (SBU)  Summary:  At the May 20 JCG Plenary, Russia 
dissected the 28 March NAC Statement on CFE in a futile 
attempt to draw Allies into interpreting and discussing the 
details of the text.  Russia complained that the NAC 
statement had few specifics on ratification of A/CFE, 
accession, the definition of "substantial combat forces," 
and equipment ceilings and offered Russia no guarantees 
in return for its compliance.  Russia wanted detailed 
discussion on the specifics of the NAC statement and the 
parallel actions package in the JCG.  Turkey and Germany 
reminded Russia that the NAC statement was a high level 
political offer by NATO members.  Belarus opposed discussion 
of the definition of "substantial combat forces" only by 
NATO and Russia but instead wanted the discussion in the 
JCG where it was a participant.  Russia planned to bring 
up for discussion at the next JCG meeting the NATO 1998 
Statement on CFE, asking NATO States Parties to reaffirm it, 
in particular the term "substantial combat forces." 
 
2.  (C)  At the JCG-T plus 4, Turkey briefed Allies on its 
CFE consultations with Russian DFM Kislyak, including 
recent Russian public statements for expanding the "flank" 
area to include all of Russia (within the AoA).  Germany 
wanted to engage with Russia on the 28 March NAC Statement, 
but Allies concluded that it would be best to avoid too 
detailed a discussion.  Allies agreed to continue with the 
normal JCG meeting schedule, but could cancel the meetings 
for practical reasons.  Washington see paragraphs 10, and 
12.  End Summary. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
PLENARY:  GUARANTEES AND PROMISES 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
3.  (SBU)  At the May 20 JCG (Joint Consultative Group) 
under the Chairmanship of Iceland, Russian representative 
(Ulyanov) informed Allies that Russia sees positive aspects 
of the 28 March NAC Statement on CFE, but also believes it 
is imbalanced and too vague with not enough detail. 
Ulyanov commented that the statement was an "actions for 
promises" offer with no guarantees that Russia would get 
anything in return for its compliance.  Ulyanov detailed 
four specific concerns: 
 
      -NATO is only offering to "move forward" towards 
ratification while Russia is required to take steps with 
respect to Georgia and Moldova; what does "move forward" 
mean?  How long will it take?  How soon can countries 
complete ratification?  When will countries deposit their 
instrument of ratification?  Is there going to be 
provisional application if there is a delay in ratification? 
 
      -NATO only promised to discuss accession of the 
Baltics and Slovenia.  There is no guarantee of mutual 
agreement.  An agreement on this could be difficult due to 
probably differing views on territorial ceilings and the 
flank region. 
 
      -There is no guarantee that the term "substantial 
combat forces" will be defined.  The NAC statement only 
stipulates that NATO and Russia will develop a definition. 
 
      -What does "changes to the level of equipment 
ceilings" mean?  Is it a reduction or an increase?  What 
do the changes consist of?  What timeframe? 
 
4.  (SBU) Ulyanov scoffed at the idea that Russia would 
lift its "suspension" in return for such vague promises in 
the NAC statement.  He declared that the JCG needed to 
discuss the details of the NAC statement in order to 
provide for guarantees that would enable the parallel 
actions package to be agreed to "in the right time."  He 
then accused the forum of not being willing to tackle the core 
 
issue to enable the Treaty to overcome the current crisis. 
Additionally, Ulyanov questioned whether Estonia intended to 
increase its holdings of TLE and mentioned that one State 
Party (unnamed) in November indicated that it wanted to 
depart from the intent of the NATO December 1998 statement. 
 
 
5.  (SBU)  Germany (Richter) responded by reminding Russia 
that the 28 March NAC Statement and the Bucharest Summit 
Declaration of 3 April came from the highest political 
level.  NATO's commitments are similar to that of the 
Istanbul commitments.  Although the timeline of actions 
still needed to be harmonized, the NAC statement is 
"promises for promises."  To counter each of Ulyanov's 
complaints, Richter opined that NATO States Parties' 
political intention is to ratify and adhere to A/CFE 
following signature of the parallel actions package, that 
the Baltics and Slovenia have promised to accede to A/CFE 
would consult with the Allies and Russia.  Richter 
suggested a discussion in the JCG of Treaty terms, to 
include permanent stationing, headroom, ceilings, etc., and 
offered to provide a historical analysis of the term 
"substantial combat forces" in the JCG (Note:  Richter raised 
this issue in the JCG-T plus 4.  USDEL and others cautioned 
Richter to limit discussion of this topic to Allies 
only.  End Note).  Richter also commented that though it 
is not specifically stated in the NAC text on equipment 
ceilings, reduction is implied.  It is the only realistic 
interpretation in light of equipment level trends and the 
current European security situation. 
 
6.  (SBU)  Ulyanov stated that he was delighted at the 
Russia - Germany "professional" dialogue, but that 
Richter's statement was from a national perspective and 
wondered what NATO's positions were on Russia's concerns. 
Ulyanov then complained that the parallel actions package 
required Russia to take specific actions on Georgia and 
Moldova while no details on the Baltics' accession or 
"substantial combat forces."  Russia needed "clarity," 
"clean-cut commitments spelled out." 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
PLENARY:  WE'RE LITTLE BUT DON'T FORGET US! 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
7.  (SBU)  Luxembourg (Pilot) voiced its support for 
Germany's intervention.  With reference to the NAC text on 
equipment ceilings, Pilot confessed that although 
Luxembourg currently had no TLE on its territory, in the 
near future, it will increase its national holding of ACVs 
to its current limit (40) so that its peacekeeping forces 
could participate better in exercises and operations. 
Pilot hoped that this would not cause concern for Russia. 
 
8.  (SBU)  In predictable fashion, Belarus (Pavlov) 
commented that he was happy to see "structured dialogue" 
emerging in the forum and echoed Russia's call for 
specifics to be discussed in the JCG.  Pavlov said that 
negotiations of the parallel actions package should not 
prevent detailed work on its aspects in the JCG.  To buttress 
his point that details should be worked on in the JCG, Pavlov 
objected to the NAC text that called for only NATO and 
Russia to develop a definition for the term "substantial 
combat forces."  He complained that his country too had 
interests in the definition. 
 
9.  (SBU)  Turkey (Begec) stated that NATO's position is in 
the March 28 NAC Statement and that "equal ambiguity" is 
written in the parallel action package for both sides. 
Begec pointed out that NATO equipment ceilings trend has 
been downward and that the Alliance's position on the term 
"substantial combat forces" has not changed since NATO 
statements made in December 1996, March 1997, and most 
recently in December 1998.  Begec challenged Russia to make a 
commitment at the political level similar to that of the 
NAC commitment by issuing a text at an equal level. 
 
 
10.  (SBU)  Ulyanov informed all that at the next JCG 
meeting he would bring up for discussion the NATO 1998 
Statement on CFE, asking NATO States Parties to reaffirm 
it, in particular, the term "substantial combat forces." 
 
11.  (SBU)  Under AOB, the Chair raised the issue of 
postponing the June 24 JCG (HLTF date) and cancellation of 
the July 1 JCG (ASRC date).  On the margins, the next chair 
(Negro, Italy) asked USDEL about holding a JCG on Friday, 
June 27 to avoid cancelling two JCG meetings in a row. 
 
12.  (C)  Comment:  In the JCG Ulyanov mentioned that there 
were different versions of the parallel actions package, 
telling some that Russia has a different version.  Other 
delegations had also expressed similar concerns.  It would 
be helpful for USDEL to provide the latest version to our 
Allies.  End Comment. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
JCG-T plus 4:  THE INTERPRETER 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
13.  (C)  Slovakia chaired the JCG-T plus 4 on May 19. 
Turkey (Begec) provided a summary of its CFE consultations 
with Russian DFM Kislyak.  Begec informed Allies that 
Russia had reiterated to Turkey its desire to discuss the 
definition of "substantial combat forces," accession terms 
for the Baltic countries and Slovenia, and reductions 
in the ceilings of NATO States Parties.  In addition Russia 
also wanted to eliminate its limitations in the flanks. 
Russia told Turkey that it wanted all of Russia to be 
a "flank country."  Begec told Allies that Turkey remained 
firm with Russia by reiterating Allies position as detailed 
in the 28 March NAC Statement on CFE. 
 
14.  (C)  Germany (Richter) raised the issue of Russian 
General Balyuevskiy's recent public statements on expanding 
the "flank" area to all of Russia territory within the 
AoA.  Turkey noted that Balyuevskiy said the same to Turkey 
while in Ankara.  Richter mused about the consequences of 
such an action:  lack of potential reinforcement over a 
Basic Temporary Deployment and the need to negotiate with 
other "flank" States Parties for upward movement of 
ceilings. 
 
15.  (C)  In anticipation of Russia's discussion of the 
March 28 NAC Statement in the JCG, Richter suggested that 
Allies be prepared to discuss details of the statement - 
interpreting what each NATO promised action/step meant - 
to convince Russia that the NAC statement was a serious 
offer.  He stated that "CFE is at stake; our job is to keep 
it alive."  The UK commented that there was no need to 
convince Russia that the Allied offer is genuine since it 
had came from top political leaders.  Richter suggested 
discussion of commonly used Treaty terms such as headroom, 
temporary deployment, stationing, and ceilings, and offered 
to brief the JCG on the origin of the term "substantial 
combat forces" in order to increase the participants' 
understanding of the concept.  Turkey, the UK, Romania, 
and the U.S. opposed Germany's suggestion, stating that 
such discussion should stay in the JCG-T only to ensure all 
agreed to the definitions.  After much discussion, there 
was general agreement to avoid any detailed discussion and 
to voice general support for the March 28 NAC statement. 
Greece (Sourani) reminded Allies that Greece had no 
intention of lowering its A/CFE Territorial Ceiling and 
that if any Ally stated otherwise in the JCG, Greece would 
have to object. 
 
16.  (C)  Allies agreed to continue with the JCG meetings 
as scheduled in order not to send the "wrong" political 
signal to Russia.  That said, all agreed that the meetings 
could be canceled for practical reasons, e.g., the June 24 
JCG meeting due to the HLTF in Brussels). 
 
17.  (SBU)  The next JCG-T plus 4 will be on May 26.  The 
next JCG will be on May 27 under Italian Chairmanship. 
FINLEY