VZCZCXYZ0017
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DE RUEHFR #0976/01 1431127
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 221127Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3110
INFO RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 0920
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN PRIORITY 6813
RUEHKV/AMEMBASSY KYIV PRIORITY 0552
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 6927
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY 6112
RUEHSI/AMEMBASSY TBILISI PRIORITY 0508
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 1515
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 3244
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY 2307

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 000976 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/21/2018 
TAGS: PREL PBTS XH RS GG GM UK ZJ FR
SUBJECT: FOSG PARIS MEETING MAY 2008 
 
Classified By: A/POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR ANDREW YOUNG FOR REASONS 
1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: During a May 8 meeting in Paris, the Western 
Friends of the Secretary General on Georgia (FOSG), 
consisting of the U.S., UK, France, and Germany, 
enthusiastically endorsed EUR DAS Matt Bryza's proposal for 
reviving the Abkhazia peace process.  Bryza laid out a new 
three-pronged approach to advance the settlement process 
through direct Georgian-Abkhaz negotiations to elaborate 
President Saakashvili's peace initiatives; firm political 
pressure on Russia to prevent further infringement on 
Georgia's sovereignty; and the creation of a new forum to 
provide advice and raise money for the implementation of 
economic, social, and information links between Abkhazia and 
the rest of Georgia.  All of the Western Friends 
enthusiastically supported Bryza's proposal.  However, they 
opposed Georgia's UN General Assembly resolution on 
Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs).  End summary. 
 
¶2. (U) Participants:  U.S. - EUR DAS Matthew Bryza; UK - MFA 
South Caucasus Director Sir Brian Fall; France -- MFA Deputy 
Political Director Veronique Bujon-Barre; Germany -- MFA 
South Caucasus Director Hans-Dieter Lucas.  Notetaker: 
EUR/CARC Conflicts Advisor Mike Carpenter. 
 
---------------------------- 
Russia's Actions in Abkhazia 
---------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) The Western members of the FOSG -- Germany, France and 
the UK -- generally agreed that recent Russian actions in 
Abkhazia, including its March 6 decision to withdraw from CIS 
economic and military sanctions, the April 16 Kremlin 
instructions to establish closer ties with Georgia's 
separatist regions, the April 20 downing of a Georgian UAV, 
and the April 29 unilateral decision to augment Russian 
peacekeeping forces with airborne troops, were not in keeping 
with Russia's role as a "facilitator" of the peace process. 
Germany and France did not believe these steps were part of a 
"master plan" to gain further control of Abkhazia, but were 
simply an "unfortunate chain reaction" brought about in part 
by Georgia's heightened state of military readiness.  Bryza 
countered that Georgia's heightened military readiness was a 
direct response to Russian actions.  Germany and France 
agreed that Georgia's response, while restrained in 
substance, was nevertheless "alarmist in tone."  For that 
reason, they believed that the Western Friends should counsel 
restraint on both Russia and Georgia.  UK representative Sir 
Brian Fall agreed, but lamented the number of times the 
Friends had called for Georgian restraint following a Russian 
provocation. 
 
----------------------------- 
UAVs and the Moscow Agreement 
----------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) French MFA Deputy Political Director Veronique 
Bujon-Barre said the French MFA's Legal Office had reviewed 
the Moscow Agreement and concluded that Unmanned Aerial 
Vehicle (UAV) flights over the zone of conflict were not a 
violation.  Germany and the UK argued that legal arguments 
could be made both ways and that the Moscow Agreement was too 
ambiguous to make a definitive case one way or the other. 
DAS Bryza noted that since UAVs were not specifically 
mentioned in the agreement and were not even in widespread 
use at the time, it did not make sense to interpret the 
agreement as prohibiting them, particularly at a time when 
Russian withdrawal from CIS military sanctions made military 
transparency a paramount and legitimate concern.  Bryza 
agreed that the agreement was vague and argued that a more 
important point was that Russia had violated Georgia's 
sovereignty and the UN Charter by shooting down a Georgian 
drone within Georgian airspace, and that the discussion of 
the applicability of the Moscow Agreement to UAVs was a 
distraction from this far more fundamental breach of 
international law. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
A New Plan for Reviving the Peace Process 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) DAS Bryza presented the Western Friends with a 
three-point plan to: (1) encourage Georgia to elaborate its 
proposal of autonomy for Abkhazia (including constitutional 
guarantees); (2) put pressure on Russia to prevent further 
infringement of Georgia's sovereignty; and (3) create a new 
forum to oversee the implementation of measures to create 
economic, social, and information links between Abkhazia and 
the rest of Georgia, which would evolve into a forum for 
direct Georgian-Abkhaz talks.  Bryza explained that an 
expanded "Forum for Peace Implementation" would complement 
the FOSG by focusing on financial and diplomatic support for 
the peace plan, and could include both FOSG members and the 
UN, EU, OSCE, Turkey, Ukraine, and perhaps also Bulgaria and 
Romania.  The Western Friends all enthusiastically embraced 
Bryza's proposal.  In response to Bryza's suggestion, German 
FOSG Coordinator Hans-Dieter Lucas agreed the German MFA 
could host a conference in Berlin on economic 
confidence-building measures as called for in a 2005 UN 
Security Counsel Resolution, which could give life to the new 
forum Bryza had suggested. 
 
-------------- 
IDP Resolution 
-------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Germany, France, and the UK all opposed Georgia's UN 
General Assembly resolution on IDPs on the grounds that it 
detracted from the UN Security Council as the proper forum 
for discussion of Abkhazia, was not conducive to building 
confidence with the Abkhaz, and would demonstrate division 
among the international community.  DAS Bryza told the group 
the U.S. would likely support the resolution, as it gave 
breathing room for those in the GOG who wanted to pursue the 
line of negotiations.  Bryza also noted that Georgian UN 
Permanent Representative Irakli Alasania had previewed the 
resolution with Abkhaz de facto foreign minister Shamba, and 
the latter had not objected to the GOG's tabling of the 
resolution.  The UK indicated it might be willing to consider 
supporting the resolution if some amendments were made to the 
text concerning the "unacceptability of demographic change" 
in Abkhazia. (Note: Following the FOSG meeting in Paris and a 
subsequent exchange between EUR/CARC Conflicts Advisor and 
Georgian UN Ambassador Irakli Alasania, the operative 
paragraph on the unacceptability of demographic change was 
removed and a new preambular paragraph was added.  The old 
operative paragraph read: "Reaffirms the unacceptability of 
the demographic changes resulting from the conflict in 
Abkhazia, Georgia, and deplores any attempt to alter 
pre-conflict demographic composition in Abkhazia, Georgia." 
The new preambular paragraph reads: "Deeply concerned by the 
demographic changes resulting from the conflict in Abkhazia, 
Georgia, and regretting any attempt to alter pre-conflict 
demographic composition in Abkhazia, Georgia."  Despite these 
changes to the text, which directly addressed the UK's 
concerns, the UK, France, and Germany abstained.  End Note.) 
 
------------------------------------------- 
UN investigation into the April 20 incident 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) The Friends all agreed that the UN should complete its 
investigation of the April 20 shoot-down of a Georgian UAV to 
prove its credibility.  If the UN failed to conduct a 
credible investigation that drew definitive conclusions, the 
EU would be in a position to launch its own Instant 
Assessment Mechanism to review the evidence.  All four 
members of the Western Friends agreed the evidence 
overwhelmingly pointed to the likelihood that a Russian 
fighter shot down the Georgian drone. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (C) The Western Friends, support for DAS Bryza's proposal 
to revive the peace process allows the USG to move forward 
with the plan to create a complementary format to the Friends 
process, but without allowing any one country to veto its 
functioning.  A new "Forum for Peace Implementation" will 
create support -- financially and politically -- for Georgian 
efforts to develop closer economic, cultural, and information 
links with Abkhazia.  It could also support direct 
Abkhaz-Georgian negotiations, which are an essential 
precondition for any meaningful progress in the talks. 
 
¶9. (U) This cable was drafted by EUR/CARC and cleared by EUR 
DAS Matt Bryza. 
Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm 
 
STAPLETON