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OO RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHLH RUEHPW
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O 011136Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1523
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUCNNSG/NUCLEAR SUPPLIERS GROUP COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEHUNV/USMISSION UNVIE VIENNA 1461
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 6337

C O N F I D E N T I A L NEW DELHI 001193 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/01/2018 
TAGS: PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN
SUBJECT: MENON CAUTIOUS AND ADVANI SKEPTICAL ABOUT NUCLEAR 
MOVEMENT 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador David Mulford for Reasons 1.4 (B and D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon told the 
Ambassador May 1 that the Indian government would seek 
approval to submit the safeguards agreement to the IAEA in 
the May 6 UPA-Left committee meeting.  Although he did not 
divulge any specifics, Menon believed that External Affairs 
Minister Pranab Mukherjee's proposal to have a "sense of the 
House" in Parliament at a later date gives political space 
that might allow movement forward.  In a separate May 1 
meeting, BJP Prime Ministerial candidate L.K. Advani surmised 
to Acting Polcouns that the government would continue 
delaying implementation of the nuclear deal in order to 
ensure that the Communists remain supportive of a Congress 
Party-led coalition government after the general elections in 
early 2009.  End Summary. 
 
- - - 
UPA Will Push Committee for a Decision 
- - - 
 
¶2. (C) In a May 1 meeting with the Ambassador, Foreign 
Secretary Shivshankar Menon divulged that the UPA government 
 
SIPDIS 
has prepared the ground to move the nuclear initiative 
forward.  "We have clearly told them that we want a decision 
that we will go to the Board," he related.  The Ambassador 
asked about the proposal put forward by External Affairs 
Minister Pranab Mukherjee to ask for a "sense of the house" 
from Parliament at some point in the nuclear timeline.  Menon 
explained that the details remain vague, but the idea would 
provide more political space, particularly for the BJP.  He 
observed that former BJP National Security Advisor Brajesh 
Mishra has explicitly and publicly supported the initiative. 
Moreover, he continued, BJP Prime Ministerial candidate L.K. 
Advani has narrowed the opposition's argument against the 
initiative to the one issue of testing. 
 
¶3. (C) The sense of the house itself would not entail a vote, 
Menon explained, but rather a debate followed by a general 
statement expressing the sense of Parliament.  He called the 
idea a "political figleaf or gesture," and made clear that 
Parliament has no legal role in crafting foreign policy.  The 
Ambassador asked whether he felt optimistic about the May 6 
meeting.  Menon hedged, and quipped that he "tries not to 
count my chickens before they hatch."  He observed that the 
nuclear debate no longer involves the actual issues, but 
rather the political climate.  He wondered how the May 
panchayat (local assembly) elections in West Bengal and the 
April 30 conclusion of budget would factor into the 
Communists' decision of whether to break with the government 
now or later.  "If the Left backs off enough, we will go 
ahead," he stated. 
 
- - - 
Advani Expects No Nuclear Resolution 
- - - 
 
¶4. (C) As part of a separate May 1 meeting, BJP Prime 
Ministerial candidate and former Deputy Prime Minister L.K. 
Advani told Acting Polcouns that he has heard that Congress 
Party politicians would stall or kill implementation of the 
nuclear initiative so as not to alienate the Communists, 
whose support is essential for a future Congress Party-led 
coalition government after the next general elections, which 
he expected to occur in early 2009. 
 
- - - 
Comment: Ground Laid for May 6 
- - - 
 
¶5. (C) Short of jettisoning the Communists from government, 
the Congress Party can do little more to set the stage for 
forward nuclear movement.  Ahmadinejad's visit demonstrated 
an "independent foreign policy" and Mukherjee proposed an 
enhanced role for Parliament, actions which might inveigle 
the Left to back down or delay their stalling tactics. 
However, as Menon admitted and Advani assessed, enacting the 
initiative now depends on the political whims of the Congress 
Party and Communists, whose short-term vote calculations 
override all other concerns, including India's national 
interest. 
MULFORD